The JGB curve isn't behaving the way it "should", nor is that behavior universal to the entire curve. Not only that, similar patterns are playing out in US$ forward markets like term SOFR futures. Each of these curves are pricing therefore predicting the same general set of future outcomes, and, wildly enough, enormous difficulties in figuring out how and when to get there because of the same reason. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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