The competitive and often antagonistic relationships between China, India, and Pakistan have roots that predate their possession of nuclear weaponry. Yet the significant transformation of the nuclear capabilities that is now underway in all three countries simultaneously complicates and mitigates their geopolitical rivalries.

This is one of the central arguments advanced by a new report authored by Ashley J. Tellis, the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The report, Striking Asymmetries: Nuclear Transitions in Southern Asia, is an authoritative account of the transitions in the nuclear weapons programs in China, India, and Pakistan over the last two decades.

Ashley joins Milan on the show this week to discuss his new report and its implications. Milan and Ashley discuss China’s post-Cold War shift to its conservative nuclear posture, the developmental underpinnings of India’s nuclear program, and Pakistan’s diverse, burgeoning nuclear weapons arsenal. Plus, the two discuss U.S. policy options to manage China’s nuclear modernization and the logic of an India-France-United States nuclear partnership. 

1. “How China Sees India With Ambassador Shyam Saran,” Grand Tamasha, September 7, 2022.
2. “When and Why Do India and Pakistan Fight (with Christopher Clary),” Grand Tamasha, September 14, 2022.
3. Ashley J. Tellis, India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal (RAND Corporation, 2001).
4. Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills, eds. Strategic Asia 2019: China’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions(Washington, D.C.: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2019).