Talking Data

By Arbor Research & TradingBusiness

Talking Data episodes

January 31, 2024 Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss today's FOMC Meeting, Bond Market Volatility & Inflation
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss today’s the Ramifications of Record High Equities, today’s FOMC Meeting, Bond Market Volatility, the Bank of Japan & the Path of Inflation with Manus Cranny and Kate Moore.
15 min
January 29, 2024 Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss Changes in the Workplace Environment & Remote Work
Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss Changes in the Workplace Environment & Remote Work with Charles Payne.
5 min
January 26, 2024 Jim Bianco on a “No Landing” Economy, Sticky Inflation and Powell Pivot - Episode #149
Jim Bianco, President of market and macroeconomic research firm Bianco Research, appears Jan. 11, 2024, with hosts Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau to discuss among other issues his outlook for a “no landing” U.S. economy in 2024 (1:48), sticky inflation of 3% to 4% (3:25) and his theory on Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s dovish turn (9:35) on Dec. 13. “The problem with the economy is there isn’t a problem,” Mr. Bianco says. “My biggest concern is too much growth and sticky inflation.”
Between a hawkish Powell speech on Dec. 1 and Powell’s softened stance on Dec. 13, the data showed no change in economic fundamentals. So what changed his mind? Mr. Bianco notes (10:33) that Federal Reserve officials prefer unanimous or near-unanimous votes on monetary policy and bank regulations. He suspects “a bunch of doves” among the FOMC’s voting members let Chair Powell know they were prepared to vote in dissent, “and I think he acquiesced.”
Mr. Bianco thinks the biggest change (15:26) in the economy coming out of 2020 was remote work. On economic fundamentals (21:24), he sees little case for “a macro problem with the labor market” or trouble with the consumer. He does note warning signs in credit and the potentially problematic rise of the U.S. government’s interest expense.
Asked about exogenous risks (25:55), Mr. Bianco points to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the consequent rerouting of 30% to 40% of the world’s cargo shipping from that critical Asia-Europe route to around Africa. Mr. Bianco warns delays will spell inventory trouble not only in Europe but in the U.S.
Mr. Bianco has some criticism of the Federal Reserve (46:33). “The Fed first raised rates in March of 2022. What was the year-over-year inflation rate when they finally got to the first rate hike? It was 8.6%. Boy, they waited way, way, way too long before they got it.”
Messrs. Sherman and Lau also discuss with Mr. Bianco why the bond market sometimes is “smarter at sniffing out disaster” than the stock market (51:20), the absence of recession despite protracted recessionary warnings from leading indicators (52:54) and complacency in the credit market (1:06:03).
1 hr 14 min
January 23, 2024 Jim Bianco on Bond Index Construction, Interest Rates, & Credit Risk
Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research Advisors, explains the index behind the WisdomTree Bianco Total Return Fund (WTBN) and offers perspective on interest rates and credit risk.
19 min
January 23, 2024 The Hidden Truth About Housing Inflation: Government vs Real Data - James Bianco
Join us in this interview with Jim Bianco, Bianco Research, where we dive into critical economic topics shaping 2024. In a sit down with Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, Bianco offers expert insights on inflation trends, housing market discrepancies, bond market shifts, and Bitcoin's turbulent journey. Don't miss his detailed analysis and predictions that could redefine your financial strategy.

00:00 - Introduction & Government vs Real Data
05:46 - Inflation Realities in 2024: Beyond the Numbers
06:14 - Housing Inflation: Gov't vs. Real Data Analysis
07:13 - Sticky Inflation and Its Impact on Rate Cuts
08:09 - Bond Market: Facing the Worst Returns Since Civil War
14:16 - Bitcoin ETFs and Market Dynamics
16:11 - Bitcoin Price Prediction: Potential Drop to $30K-$20K
21:51 - Red Sea Shipping Crisis and Its Implications on Global Inflation
23 min
January 22, 2024 DoubleLine Capital Round Table Prime 2024: Jim Bianco
Timestamps:
0:00 View on Inflation
7:57 The Solution to Federal Government Spending
11:20 Stock-Pickers Market/Opportunities in a Rising Rates Environment
17:01 Best Idea for 2024
Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
19 min
January 22, 2024 DoubleLine Capital Round Table Prime 2024: Part 3 - Best Ideas
Jim's Comment:
6:28 Best Idea for 2024
Participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime 2024 share their best trading and investment ideas for 2024. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
13 min
January 22, 2024 DoubleLine Capital Round Table Prime 2024: Part 2 - Market Outlook
Jim's Comment:
5:02 Stock-Pickers Market/Opportunities in a Rising Rates Environment
During the markets segment of its 2024 edition, participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime present their outlooks on various markets and topics for 2024. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
(00:29) Charles Payne discusses the state of the IPO pipeline heading into 2024 and how that pipeline has punished investors for 15, 20 years. He also shares his Word of the Year for stock investors: nimble.
(5:06) Jim Bianco says the art of stock picking is very much alive, breaks down “a multi-year bear market in bonds,” talks the resilience of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, and discusses China’s slow recovery and its impact on commodities.
(10:44) Jeffrey Gundlach looks at valuations and price-to-earnings since the November start of the Everything Rally then talks about how a secular shift from a long period of declining interest rates to a period of rising interest rates will impact participants’ and prognosticators’ understanding of the markets. He also discusses the potential economic backdrop that would have him looking at EM and lower tiers of credit, and he shares why he has put money in India and doesn’t even look at it. He closes with his thoughts on mortgage spreads, high yield bond defaults and TIPS.
(25:18) David Rosenberg talks about how the CPI is a flawed statistic, the S&P 500’s flat two-year performance with no improvement in valuations, how there’s so much psychology involved in the stock market, the equity risk premium, and how the soft landing is real and how historically it has served as a precursor to contraction. He also shares his thoughts on positioning and the outlook for several countries, including Japan and Canada.
(42:08) The markets section concludes with Danielle DiMartino Booth discussing private markets juxtaposed against public markets and the impact of public pension funds flowing into private equity a few years ago, and speculating on who will be living in Illinois if Indiana gets rid of its state income tax.
47 min
January 19, 2024 DoubleLine Capital Round Table Prime 2024: Part 1 - Macro
Jim's Timestamps:
27:28 Jim's view on Inflation.
1:06:26 The solution to Federal Government Spending.

During the macroeconomic segment of its 2024 edition, participants in DoubleLine Round Table Prime among other issues debate the seeming failure of the most telegraphed recession in history to materialize in 2023, the intersection of Federal Reserve policy with a presidential election year and deep changes in the economy post-2020. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their guests James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, author and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, President of economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime was held Jan. 11, 2024.
Topics include:
(1:08) How the U.S. avoided recession despite numerous recessionary indicators and evidence the U.S. economy is far more downbeat than some widely followed economic statistics would indicate.
(10:57) The condition of consumer and household financial conditions and the rapid rise of consumer borrowing delinquencies.
(15:50) Possible factors behind the protracted length of the current cycle, including money supply as measured by M2, and as Charles Payne points out (27:58), the velocity of money.
(30:45) Post-2020 transformations of the economy, the biggest, Jim Bianco notes, being remote work and acceleration of deglobalization, with important implications for inflation.
(35:52) Federal Reserve monetary policy, including Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s dovish pivot Dec. 13, which Danielle DiMartino Booth thinks was timed “to get in front of the Iowa caucuses.”
(45:50) The probability of recession in 2024.
(50:11) Jeffrey Gundlach’s warning about the combination of the federal government running large deficits (even amid low unemployment), funded by debt, amid rising interest rates, and his outlook on the inevitability of a restructuring of the federal debt and the unfunded liabilities of American entitlement programs.
1 hr 11 min
January 18, 2024 The Fed Fears A Liquidity Crisis More Than An Inflationary One | Jim Bianco
Rumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024.
Is the end of QT indeed imminent?
If so what will the implications be?
To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're fortunate to sit down with analyst Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research.
Jim thinks the Fed is now scrambling to cut rates and end QT because of the brewing potential for a liquidity crisis once the Reverse Repo Program is fully drained.
Follow Jim at https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Or on X/Twitter at @BiancoResearch
And check out his new ETF, ticker: WTBN
1 hr 22 min

About Talking Data

From the publisher's feed

Welcome to Talking Data: A series of podcasts hosted by Arbor Research featuring Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Sam Rines and Petr Pinkhasov of Arbor Data Science.