The 10-Minute Take

Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more similar than many may appreciate. 

In this season finale of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone round up three common themes shaping both economies this year. They include:

• Slowing population growth, and how it’s impacted a key labour market benchmark—breakeven employment rates.

• Resilient consumer spending holding up despite much trade uncertainty and deteriorating job market conditions.

• Big government deficits—an ongoing theme in the U.S. post-pandemic, but also emerging in Canada as well.

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data.

But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:

• When (and if) key indicators like the October jobs and inflation data will be released, and what gaps we're facing.
• What September data revealed about the economy heading into the shutdown
• How the shutdown will weigh on GDP growth in Q4 2025.
• Why the Fed's December meeting is consequential, and whether a pause may be the most prudent move.

In response to tariff pressures and economic weakness, Budget 2025 commits big new spending to spark private investment and reignite growth – with higher deficits and debt as a result. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economist Claire Fan is joined by RBC Assistant Chief Economist Cynthia Leach to discuss:

• Why fiscal policy is the right tool to address the weak growth outlook
• How the growth agenda is central to the government’s fiscal plan
• Whether the budget does enough to catalyze growth – and the execution risks that could derail it
• If Canada can afford to spend big right now

It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed.

Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility over the economy just as the U.S. Federal Reserve restarts its rate-cutting cycle.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:

• Why data disruptions may be more concerning than immediate economic disruptions.
• What alternative private sector indicators reveal about the current state of the U.S. economy.
• The Fed's likely path forward amid the data blackout and trade uncertainty.

Amid the constant churn of U.S. tariff headlines, fundamental questions about Canada's trade often go unanswered. Questions such as:

• What exactly does Canada export—and where does it all go?

• Has Canada always been this dependent on the U.S. market?

• Which provinces are most at risk from trade disruptions?

• Should we worry less about tariffs on certain goods like fungible raw materials than others?

In this episode on the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into these questions and more.

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate by 25 basis points.

But behind these moves lie different motivations and signals, sparking debate over what this means for the economic outlook on both sides of the border.

In this episode, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what drove these decisions and why they view the Fed’s action as a step toward policy normalization—not easing. Later, they shift their focus to Canada, where a mixed data picture begs the question: will the BoC cut rates again in October?

U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against their objectives.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen is joined by Senior Economist Claire Fan to discuss:

• Who’s bearing the costs of tariffs so far.

• The current and future prospects for U.S. manufacturing amid protectionist measures.

• Whether tariff revenues can make a meaningful dent in America's massive federal deficit.

• What these findings mean for the sustainability of U.S. tariff policy going forward.

Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:

• What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s.

• How producer price data are showing early impacts of tariffs before these fully reach consumer prices.

• Why dramatic downward revisions to employment figures signal a concerning trend.

• What this scenario in the U.S. means for Canada’s export-dependent economy.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian economy since January.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:

• What's keeping the central bank on the sidelines.
• How CUSMA exemptions have protected Canada from the worst of U.S. tariff impacts.
• The role of growing government spending plans in shaping the outlook.

Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.

But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:

-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.

-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).

-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.