The 10-Minute Take

U.S. headline inflation just posted its hottest print in nearly three years, driven by surging energy prices and sticky core inflation pressures.

At the same time, labour market data is looking solid, and growth hasn’t meaningfully slowed. We have yet to see signs of Stagflation Lite materializing, and don’t expect the oil price shock will tip the economy into a recession.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan explain:

• Whether hot US inflation is purely an energy story—or if pressures are building beneath the surface.
• Why the Fed stays put even as the labour market holds up.
• What it would take from a jobs’ perspective to trigger a recession in the U.S.—and why it’s unlikely.

Softening in Canada’s headline labour market data this year masks a more encouraging underlying story.

Job losses remain concentrated in tariff-exposed sectors, layoffs are declining, and hiring is beginning to rebound—all signs of resilience beneath the surface.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:

• What hidden unemployment means and whether it's rising.
• How "low hire, low fire" dynamics disproportionately affect younger job seekers.
• Why labour supply is expected to tighten as hiring demand recovers later in 2026.

U.S. productivity growth is strong, business investment in information processing and equipment has surged, and headlines about AI replacing jobs are growing louder.

But, how much of this is actually attributable to AI and how much is noise?

Reality is nuanced. We’re still largely in the building out phase of AI investment, and it’s too soon to say whether AI has led to a structural break in productivity. Fears of widespread job displacement may dominate the narrative, but labor market data tells a different story.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC U.S. economists Carrie Freestone and Imri Haggin discuss:

• Whether recent productivity gains can be attributed to adoption of AI or reflect other factors.
• How AI-related capital spending is influencing business investment.
• What data shows about AI's impact on jobs, and whether labor displacement is happening.

Global oil prices remain high as the Middle East conflict persists, raising questions about a potential comeback of the broad-based inflation Canada experienced during and after the pandemic.

But, this shock is fundamentally different from the past. Unlike 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war compounded systemic supply chain disruptions from pandemic lockdowns, today's commodity shock is narrowly concentrated in oil, and unfolding at a time when global supply chains are more resilient.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:

• How the scope and scale of the commodity price shock differs from the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
• What localized and contained supply chain disruptions this year could mean for global inflation.
• Why Canadian consumers could be less tolerant of rising prices than they were in 2022.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising questions about the impact to Canada’s oil-exporting economy.

This shock differs fundamentally from the past including 2015’s oil price collapse, which drove structural changes in Canada’s energy sector over the past decade. The result: A surprisingly neutral net effect from today’s high oil prices on real economic growth.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:

• Why domestic energy investment isn’t likely to surge despite higher oil prices.
• How the price shock can benefit some sectors but hurt others, creating a fractured impact.
• What to expect for Bank of Canada rate decisions as inflation pressures evolve.

Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headline inflation settles.

If the shock persists, higher energy prices will layer onto core inflation pressures amid the passthrough of tariffs to prices.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC’s Head of US Economics, Mike Reid, joins economist Carrie Freestone to discuss how he’s thinking about inflation and the hit to consumption in the months ahead. The episode covers:

1. Constructing a range of scenarios to assess potential impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation.
2. Signs of early tariff passthrough already showing up beneath the surface.
3. Whether the US labor market and consumers are well-positioned to withstand these shocks.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based tariffs is far from the end of the U.S. tariff story.

The administration has already pivoted to new legislative authorities and opened investigations for future measures. For Canada, the implications are more limited than many would think.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down what the ruling means for trade policy and the economy. They discuss:

1. What IEEPA is, why it was struck down, and what the administration is doing instead
2. Four major statutory authorities the U.S. administration could use to reinstate or expand tariffs.
3. Why Canada’s tariff backdrop hasn’t really changed from the ruling—and what matters for the bilateral relationship going forward.

One month into 2026, U.S. inflation continues to run above 2% for a fifth consecutive year—and the reason goes beyond a single cause.

Some recent data—including easing in core services and vehicle prices—might suggest relief is near, but a closer look reveals these improvements are unlikely to persist as a trend.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore what's driving inflation and how to cut through the noise. They explore:

1. How a tight labor market, robust consumer demand, tariffs flowing through supply chains, and a lagging housing inflation measure are all keeping inflation elevated.
2. What are the critical differences between the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures and why the Fed's preferred measure often tells a different story than headline CPI readings.
3. Key data challenges and what to monitor: The Producer Price Index for tariff signals, business surveys for pricing intent, and wage dynamics for inflation's floor.

Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vulnerable to protectionist trade policies.

While 2025 data shows encouraging early signs of diversification, most Canadian exporters still lack the infrastructure and trade channels needed to pivot away from U.S. markets effectively.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone are joined by colleague Salim Zanzana for conversation on:

1. Canada’s concentrated trade reality and how it’s evolved in the past year.
2. What early diversification efforts reveal about Canadian exporters adapting.
3. Recent developments between Canada and China and their economic impact.

We're back for season four!

In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026.

Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question is: Can this improvement be sustained as international headwinds continue to grow.

South of the border, our outlook for the U.S. remains "stagflation lite"—sticky services inflation around 3% paired with growth below 2%. It's not just about tariffs. Uneven consumer spending driven by wealthy households and retirees is keeping inflation pressures alive.