As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalates following the February 28 strikes, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper joined A'ndre for a quick chat to assess how the conflict is unfolding and what may come next. Esper discusses how President Donald Trump and his national security team may be evaluating the campaign, the strategic objectives behind the strikes on Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure, and what success might realistically look like for Washington and its partners.

The conversation also examines the sustainability of the U.S.–Israeli air campaign, the role of munitions production and drone warfare, and how the United States can manage escalation as Iran retaliates across the region. Esper weighs in on the strategic implications of leadership decapitation following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the widening geographic scope of the conflict, including the U.S. strike on an Iranian vessel near Sri Lanka. He concludes with his assessment of how the conflict could end — and what advice he would give the president at this critical moment.

In this episode of The Burn Bag, A’ndre Gonawela sits down with former NSC Senior Director Javed Ali to unpack the rapidly escalating crisis between the United States, Israel, and Iran following the February 28 strikes that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the ongoing exchanges of fire.

They examine how Tehran is likely interpreting the strikes, why this moment differs from past U.S.–Iran flare-ups, and what Iran’s retaliation ladder could look like across missiles, proxies, maritime disruption, and asymmetric tools. The conversation also explores the risks of regional spillover, why Iran is hitting the Gulf states, the leadership shock inside Iran, and whether any credible off-ramp still exists.

With tensions rising across the Gulf and no clear endgame in sight, this episode breaks down what policymakers, businesses, and observers should be watching next.

Read Javed's piece in the conversation here.

Iran is at a critical juncture as it faces a wave of nationwide protests driven by economic strain, political frustration, and societal exhaustion. In this episode of The Burn Bag, A'ndre Gonawela is joined by Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, to explore the internal fractures within Iran's regime and the potential for change.

As tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate, the risk of military confrontation looms large. Alex Vatanka provides an in-depth analysis of the regime's response to the protests, including internet shutdowns, mass arrests, and the use of force. He discusses the implications of these actions on regime stability and the risks of further escalation both within Iran and across the region. The conversation delves into the generational divide, the regime's ideological rigidity, and the potential for military defections.

Listeners will gain insights into the complex dynamics at play, including the role of the Iranian military, the influence of foreign powers, and the potential for regime change. This episode is essential for anyone interested in understanding the current crisis in Iran and its implications for the Middle East.

Follow Alex Vatanka on X @AlexVatanka and explore more of his insightful analysis on his MEI page.

Syria is at a pivotal moment. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the country’s new leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa is working to reunify a fractured state — and the biggest test is unfolding in the northeast, where the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have operated autonomously for nearly a decade.

In recent weeks, a fragile ceasefire and phased integration agreement has put Syrian Interior Ministry forces back into major cities like Hasakeh and Qamishli. On paper, the deal could mark the beginning of Syria’s re-centralization. However, that fragility was exposed in early 2026, when fighting broke out between the SDF and Syrian government forces, raising fresh doubts about whether integration can hold.

In this episode of The Burn Bag, A’ndre Gonawela sits down with Charles Lister, Senior Fellow and Director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute, to provide a clear, ground-level primer on what’s actually happening — and what could come next.

Together, they unpack how Syria’s political map shifted after Assad’s fall and why the Syrian Democratic Forces remain central to the country’s trajectory. The discussion breaks down what the March 2025 integration framework actually required, why talks stalled ahead of the January escalation, and what Interior Ministry deployments into Hasakeh and Qamishli signal about Damascus’ return to the northeast. They also examine how Arab tribal defections reshaped eastern Syria, whether ISIS is quietly adapting, how the U.S. posture may evolve, and the most likely paths ahead — consolidation, hybrid control, or renewed conflict.

Follow Charles on X @Charles_Lister and check out his other work here.

In this episode of The Burn Bag, A’ndre Gonawela is joined by Dr. Iulia Joja, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, to examine Russia’s strategy in the Middle East in 2026 following major setbacks in Syria and Iran. The conversation breaks down how Moscow is adapting after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iran’s military losses and internal unrest, and growing U.S. pressure across the region.

Dr. Joja explains how Russia is pursuing a long-term strategy focused on maintaining relevance rather than dominance, using selective military presence, economic engagement, energy diplomacy, and partnerships with regional actors including Iran, Gulf states, and eastern Libya. The episode also explores Russia’s coordination with Iran short of a formal alliance, its ties to regional proxies, and how footholds in Libya and the Red Sea expand Moscow’s leverage over Europe, NATO, and global trade routes.

This discussion offers a clear-eyed assessment of what Russia can realistically achieve in the Middle East, where its limits are, and what Moscow’s evolving approach means for U.S. foreign policy, regional stability, and great-power competition going forward.

In Part Two of this conversation on Venezuela, The Burn Bag turns to the present — and the shockwaves following U.S. strikes and the arrest of Nicolás Maduro.

Host A’ndre Gonawela is joined again by Tony Frangie Mawad, a Venezuela-based journalist and political scientist, to examine how the United States’ intervention reshaped Venezuela’s political landscape overnight. The conversation explores how power is being reconfigured under interim president Delcy Rodríguez, how Venezuelans are reacting on the ground, and why the removal of Maduro has not meant the collapse of the system he left behind.

The episode also unpacks the role of oil, the interests of China and Russia, and the difficult question at the center of this moment: whether Venezuela is headed toward democratic transition, authoritarian stabilization, or something far messier in between.

Read Tony's Politico piece, "What I Saw in Venezuela After Trump Seized Maduro," here.

In this episode of The Burn Bag, host A’ndre Gonawela is joined by Tony Frangie Mawad, a Venezuela-based journalist and political scientist, to unpack how Venezuela reached its current moment. Long before U.S. strikes and regime collapse, Venezuela’s trajectory was shaped by the rise of Hugo Chávez, the ideology of Chavismo, and the steady erosion of democratic institutions under both Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro.

Together, they trace how a resource-rich country descended into economic collapse and authoritarian rule — examining the role of oil, populism, repression, and policy choices that reshaped Venezuelan society over two decades. The conversation provides essential historical context for understanding why Venezuela’s political system proved so resilient, and why recent events did not emerge in a vacuum.

This is Part One of A'ndre's two-part conversation with Tony on Venezuela. Part Two will examine the U.S. strikes, the arrest of Maduro, and what this turning point means for U.S.–Venezuela relations and the country’s future.

In the final episode of The Nuclear Threshold, A’ndre speaks with Alexandra Bell, President & CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and one of the leading U.S. diplomats behind recent efforts to strengthen arms control and reduce nuclear risks. Building on the technical and command-and-control foundations laid by Laura Grego and Steve Fetter, this conversation shifts to the political and diplomatic fault lines that make today’s nuclear landscape uniquely dangerous.

Alexandra explains why nuclear policy has fallen out of public view even as the world edges closer to crisis, and why diplomacy — often undervalued and underfunded — remains the only real mechanism for preventing disaster. Drawing on her experience negotiating the New START Treaty and other engagements, she breaks down the collapse of Cold War–era treaties, the rise of new nuclear states, and the challenge of rebuilding trust in a multipolar world.

We also explore how deterrence theory holds up in an era of political volatility and weapons on minutes-notice alert. Alexandra discusses realistic steps the United States and others could take to reduce tensions, the role of scientific cooperation when politics freeze, and why public engagement has always been the catalyst for major progress on nuclear issues.

As the Doomsday Clock sits closer to midnight than ever, Alexandra makes the case for “fearless diplomacy” — and why, despite the risks, the path away from catastrophe is still possible if governments and citizens choose it.

In the second installment of The Nuclear Threshold mini-series, we turn from missile defense to the human side of nuclear risk — the people, protocols, and split-second judgments that determine whether nuclear weapons are ever used. While deterrence is often framed as a stable system, history tells a far messier story: false alarms, malfunctioning sensors, training tapes mistaken for real attacks, and leaders operating under extreme pressure.

Our guest, Dr. Steve Fetter — Dean of the Graduate School at the University of Maryland, former Assistant Director in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and member of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board — walks us through how nuclear launch authority actually works inside the U.S. system. We explore why the president has sole authority, why that concentration of power is riskier than most Americans realize, and how “launch-on-warning” creates a decision window measured in minutes.

Steve breaks down famous near-miss incidents, the vulnerabilities of command-and-control systems, and his proposal to require concurrence from other top officials before any nuclear order is carried out. The conversation is grounded, accessible, and quietly unsettling — a reminder that deterrence relies on human beings who can make mistakes.

This episode asks a deceptively simple question with civilization-level implications:

How safe is a system that depends on one person getting everything right?

The Nuclear Threshold is a three-part Burn Bag mini-series exploring how deterrence, defense, and diplomacy shape nuclear risk in the 21st century. Across three conversations with leading experts, we examine why technological optimism often outpaces reality, how fragile human systems sustain deterrence, and whether diplomacy can still prevent catastrophe in an increasingly unstable world.

In this first episode, astrophysicist Dr. Laura Grego, Research Director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, joins A’ndre Gonawela to break down the science — and the myths — behind missile defense. Grego explains why the United States’ decades-long effort to build a reliable shield against nuclear attack has repeatedly failed, and how those failures risk deepening global instability. From the early “Star Wars” program to today’s multi-billion-dollar “Golden Dome” initiative, she unpacks the physics that make missile interception nearly impossible, the political incentives that keep these programs alive, and the illusion of safety that drives them. The conversation explores how misplaced faith in technology can push the world closer to, not further from, the nuclear threshold.