For much of the past two years, we've been told to expect a slimmer, more austere Belt and Road under the new "Small Yet Beautiful" mantra. The days of Chinese mega deals across the Global South were over... or so we thought.

Turns out that Chinese firms, largely from the private sector, are continuing to invest heavily in energy, mining, and construction projects in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, according to new data from Australia’s Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Beijing.

Total BRI engagement in the first half of 2025 topped $123 billion, a new record that surpassed the total for last year.

Christoph Nedopil, lead author of the new report, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge in Chinese investment and construction contracts.

SHOW NOTES:

• Griffith University: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025 H1 b by Christoph Nedopil
• Financial Times: China’s Belt and Road investment and construction activity hits record by Joe Leahy

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Listen in on many of the foreign policy discussions about Vietnam that take place at think tanks and government seminars in Washington, D.C., and you'll hear this sense of optimism that "Hanoi is on our side." They see Vietnam's historical suspicions of China and the country's ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea as key indicators that Hanoi will eventually join a U.S.-led coalition to counter China.

Those presumptions, however, are wrong, according to Khang Vu, a leading Vietnamese political scientist and visiting scholar at Boston College. Khang joins Eric to explain why the U.S. is overestimating its military and trade leverage with Vietnam.

SHOW NOTES:

• The Diplomat: Why Vietnam Will Not Balance Against China by Khang Vu
• The Diplomat: Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Change the Trajectory of Vietnam’s Foreign Policy by Khang Vu
• The Diplomat: With China Visit, Vietnam’s To Lam Reinforces Bilateral Political Trust by Khang Vu

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There was widespread disappointment in Iran that China didn't do more to help Tehran during the recent 12-day war with Israel and the United States. Beijing, for its part, offered robust rhetorical and moral support, but little else.

The calculus for Chinese policymakers is that Iran just isn't as strategically important to its foreign policy as other countries in the region, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a leading expert on Sino-Persian Gulf relations, joins Eric to discuss his new book that explains China's rapidly expanding portfolio of interests in the region and why Iran, in particular, is not among Beijing's top priorities.

SHOW NOTES:

• Amazon.com: Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China's Middle East Math by Jonathan Fulton
• China-MENA Newsletter: The myth of China's leverage in Iran by Jonathan Fulton
• Bloomberg: Israel Urges China to Pressure Iran to Rein In Nuclear Ambitions

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In the first few months of this year, it seemed that China's ties with Israel were on the mend after entering into a deep freeze following the October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas. China had begun to soften some of its rhetoric, and Israeli officials were keen to re-engage Beijing on economic issues.

That momentum stalled in mid-June, though, when Israel launched an attack on Iran that prompted a strong rebuke by China at the United Nations. Now that the fighting has stopped and a tense ceasefire appears to be holding, there are indications both countries may be ready to re-engage one another.

Gedaliah Afterman, a prominent Israeli China scholar and head of the Asia-Israel policy program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations, joins Eric to discuss Beijing's standing in the region after the war and what the prospects are for closer ties between Israel and China.

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China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now.

The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks on its nuclear facilities. This would be devastating for the Chinese economy, given that between a third and half of all Chinese oil imports pass through this strategic waterway.

Ahmed Aboudouh, head of the China research unit at the Emirates Policy Center and an associate fellow in the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new realities facing Beijing in the aftermath of the war in Iran.

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In this new era of surging instability and geopolitical uncertainty, so-called "Middle Power" states are rapidly diversifying their foreign policies to deepen engagement with other countries in the Global South, while reducing their exposure to the U.S. and China. 

But the approach taken by these middle power countries varies a lot.

A new report by the Körber Foundation in Germany surveyed foreign policy experts from India, Brazil, and South Africa, revealed sharp divergences in how these countries view the global order, the roles of China and the U.S., and the future of multilateral institutions.

Eric & Cobus speak with two of the report’s contributors, Manjeet Kripalani in Mumbai and Carlos Coelho in Rio de Janeiro, about how countries like India and Brazil are navigating this increasingly contested world.

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Latin America is the key focal point for the United States in its global competition with China. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he deems China's growing presence in the Western Hemisphere a direct threat to U.S. interests in the region.

This puts most countries in Central and South America in a tight spot, given that many states in this region count China as their largest trading partner and the U.S. as their largest source of investment.

Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado, a longtime China analyst and executive director of the Andrés Bello Foundation's China Latin America Research Center, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the divergent strategies some countries are taking to align themselves with one or both of the major powers.

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From Panama to Kenya to Indonesia, a growing number of developing countries are being pulled into the intensifying rivalry between China and the U.S. For these middle powers, the stakes are high as they must carefully navigate the tension to avoid provoking either side and risking serious consequences.

But rather than accommodating the U.S. and China, developing countries should instead pursue a different agenda that puts their interests first.

Jorge Heine, a former Chilean ambassador to China, South Africa, and India and now a research professor at Boston University, joins Eric & Cobus to talk about the latest edition of his book on active non-alignment that showcases the role of so-called "new neutrals."

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After several months of steadily improving ties, India-China relations appear to be cooling once again following the recent clashes in Kashmir. China’s military support for Pakistan during the conflict earlier this month has triggered fresh concerns in New Delhi, with many now fearing that the fragile détente built over the past year is starting to unravel.

Tensions further escalated in recent days after Beijing announced new names for dozens of locations along the disputed border with India, drawing strong backlash from the Indian media. Meanwhile, the Indian government has banned several Chinese state-run media accounts on the social platform X.

Joining Eric from New Delhi is Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian Studies at Yale University, who breaks down the current state of Sino-Indian relations in the aftermath of the Kashmir conflict. Sushant also explains why observers should ignore India’s noisy mainstream media and instead pay close attention to what Prime Minister Narendra Modi does—or doesn’t—say about China.

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Donald Trump’s return to the Middle East marks a shift toward transactional diplomacy, emphasizing trade, investment, and a retreat from human rights rhetoric. In a striking parallel, China has long pursued a similar approach in the region—prioritizing business ties over political entanglements.

The question now is how will China respond to this rapidly changing geopolitical landscape?

In this special edition of the podcast, CGSP partnered with The ChinaMed Project to organize an online seminar featuring leading experts from China and the United States, exploring how Beijing will adjust its Middle East engagement strategy in the Trump era.

Eric speaks with Zhang Chuchu, a China-Mideast scholar at the school of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, and Grant Rumley, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Later in the program, Enrico Fardella and Andrea Ghiselli from the ChinaMed Project join the discussion.

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