Recent economic data releases have sparked turmoil in financial markets around the globe.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s interpretation of this recent data suggests that fears of an imminent US recession and related expectations of aggressive policy rate cuts are overdone. To be clear, our economists are not ruling out a US recession – that will remain a risk with financial conditions still restrictive – but the evidence to support it occurring imminently looks unconvincing at this stage.

As markets settle, we offer you this excerpt from our July 11th webcast, in which our global economist, Ken Wattret, reflects on key macroeconomic themes. We hope you find this commentary valuable in navigating the period ahead.

See our July economic update: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/global-economic-outlook-july-2024.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

What are the top ranked ports in the world? Turloch Mooney, head of the port intelligence and analytics business at S&P Global Market Intelligence, discusses the latest Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) and what the results mean for businesses. 

Turloch defines port performance and how it is measured through various metrics such as offshore waiting time, berth productivity, throughput, and container dwell time. Turloch and host Kristen Hallam also explore the importance of efficient ports in facilitating economic growth, investment, and employment opportunities, noting that inefficient ports can lead to shipment delays, reduced competitiveness, and higher emissions.

Tune in to gain a better understanding of port efficiency and its impact on global trade and economic development.

Learn more about the Container Port Performance Index: https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/1185-The-CPPI-2023-The-Container-Port-Performance-Index-2023-CD-Request.html

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Jan Gerhard, Raj Badiani, and Chris Rogers from S&P Global Market Intelligence join host Kristen Hallam to discuss the new UK government and its implications on the economy, trade, industry, and EU relations.

The experts explore the outcome of the election, the reasons behind it, and the potential impacts on various sectors. They delve into topics such as economic growth, budget responsibilities, infrastructure investment, trade deals, and more. Gain valuable insights into navigating the potential impacts of the UK general election.

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Bibianna Norek and Diego Iscaro discuss the French election and its potential impacts on policymaking and the economy. In the absence of an absolute majority for any political group and the resulting hung parliament, the experts explore scenarios for government formation. They also touch upon the potential influence on monetary policy and the impact on France's political stability. 

The experts also discuss managing security risks ahead of the Paris Olympics and the economic considerations of hosting the Games. 

Read our blog post on security risks and the Paris Olympics: https://tinyurl.com/acmk7m55

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Economists Paul Smith and Andrew Harker use data from our Purchasing Managers Index surveys to provide insights and analysis on the performance of the global economy at the midpoint of 2024 and the outlook for the coming months. They discuss the impact of factors such as investment in new technologies and inflation trends on economic growth. The economists also delve into reshoring and how supply chain realignments have been influenced by factors like the pandemic, geopolitics, and domestic policies. 

Discover Purchasing Managers Index commentary and analysis here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/pmi.html

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

"Chaos." That's how steel expert John Anton describes the market for the rest of this year in this episode of The Decisive Podcast. John is joined by Amanda Eglinton, lead analyst covering base metals and stainless/specialty steel markets at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Together they analyze the current trends and challenges in the metal market, discussing factors such as regional divergence, supply disruptions, and demand dynamics. Whether you're a producer, buyer, or investor, this episode offers valuable information to navigate the ever-changing metal market.  Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Dijedon Imeri, principal analyst for Europe and CIS country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, joins host Kristen Hallam to discuss the European Union parliamentary elections and their potential impact on the business landscape. They explore the evolving risk environment in the EU and discuss indicators that businesses and investors should monitor. They also delve into the role of the European Parliament in shaping regulations and the potential implications of a rightward shift. Tune in to gain valuable insights and stay informed about the future of the European Union.

Listen to our previous episode on elections to watch in 2024: https://tinyurl.com/ucrzmx48

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Join host Kristen Hallam as she discusses the US macroeconomic outlook with Ben Herzon, Executive Director and Co-Head of U.S. Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

They delve into the forecast for the US economy, including the expected slowdown in GDP growth and the factors contributing to this trend. Ben also addresses the outlook for inflation and a monetary policy pivot by the US Federal Reserve. 

Don't miss this insightful discussion that provides valuable insights into the current state and future trajectory of the US economy. Subscribe to the podcast now and stay informed about the latest economic trends and developments.

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Welcome to The Decisive podcast, where our experts provide insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making. The Decisive merges the Economics & Country Risk and Maritime & Trade Talk podcasts. 

In this episode, we dive into the recent election in South Africa and its potential impact on the country's business landscape. Joining host Kristen Hallam for this insightful discussion is Lange Malimela, senior Africa analyst on the Country Risk team at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

We start with background on the African National Congress (ANC) and its dominance in South African politics over the past 30 years. Lange discusses the ANC's decline in electoral fortunes and the emergence of breakaway parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters. 

The conversation then turns to the policy priorities of the new coalition government and how they may influence the business environment. They explore the government's efforts to include the private sector in addressing infrastructure issues. 

Listen to our podcast episode on elections to watch in 2024: https://tinyurl.com/ucrzmx48

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

We analyze the recent election results in India, the world's largest democracy, and the potential impact on the country's business environment and on the broader geopolitical landscape.

What are the new coalition government's policy priorities? Where can we expect policy continuity, and where might we see change? 

Featured expert: Deepa Kumar, Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/experts/kumar-deepa

Listen to our podcast episode on elections to watch in 2024: https://tinyurl.com/ucrzmx48

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/