The Downballot

Philip Bump, for many years an important voice at the Washington Post, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to share our mutual love of nerding out on numbers. Philip explains how he translates abstract data for a broad audience, going into detail on some surprising findings regarding turnout and special elections. He also explores how the second Trump administration differs from the first and concludes that public opinion likely has not yet caught up to the reality of just how different things are.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also bring listeners up to speed on the latest developments in the never-ending litigation over North Carolina's Supreme Court race, which—for the first time in a long time—just brought some good news for Democrat Allison Riggs. And the Davids take a look at Iowa, where a GOP governor's surprise retirement might create a rare opening for Democrats.

Liberals won a massive victory in last week's pivotal battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but the public saw precious little polling data that projected a blowout. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is pollster Margie Omero of GBAO, whose internal polling nailed Judge Susan Crawford's 10-point margin. Democrats hedged their bets, though, by modeling two different electorates—one redder and one bluer. Omero tells us why the latter won out, including the role that Elon Musk played in motivating Crawford's supporters.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also explain why everyone needs to be prepared for a Senate map that winds up a lot more competitive than it might look on paper. With that backdrop, the Davids dive into a trio of major developments on the Senate front over the last week, including a notable Democrat jumping in in North Carolina; a MAGA favorite challenging a Republican incumbent in Texas; and the GOP's best recruit declining a bid in North Carolina.

Tuesday night was a massive triumph for the forces of democracy, from coast to coast and up and down the ballot. We're recapping all of the action in this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, starting with Wisconsin's marquee race for the state Supreme Court and the very real possibility that Elon Musk's aggressive intrusion into the contest wound up helping Susan Crawford preserve liberals' narrow majority.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the huge Democratic overperformances in two ruby-red Florida House districts, which show that Republicans were right to fear losing Elise Stefanik's seat in a special election. But that's not all: Democrats racked up big wins in a wide range of other races (Omaha! Aurora! Winnebago!), all of which the Davids recap.

Thank you Michelangelo Signorile, Jamie Patricof, Galen Druke, Laura Belin, Josh Kornbluth, and many others for tuning into my live video with G. Elliott Morris and David Beard! Join me for my next live video in the app.

The crazy flips just keep on coming! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drill down into James Malone's astonishing victory in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania—one that saw him capture a seat Democrats had never held. They also preview next week's races in Florida, where Republicans are suddenly sweating another special election, and, of course, Wisconsin, which will hold a long-awaited election that will determine control of the state Supreme Court.

The Davids also delve into the world of digital advertising with Mark Jablonowski, an Obama veteran and the president of DSPolitical. Jablonowski reveals the inner workings of online ads, which have become an increasingly important part of every modern campaign. He specifically explains how even the smallest campaigns he works with can target voters in sophisticated ways to urge them to the polls—a roster that includes none other than James Malone.

Chuck Schumer and the handful of Senate Democrats who stood with him have faced unprecedented backlash for caving to Republicans on their budget bill last Friday, so we're pulling out our Geiger counters and assessing the fallout on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Schumer's biggest failure was his hamfisted execution of an already questionable strategy. But it's not just the lingering anger Democrats need to worry about: Similar fights are coming up in Congress later this year, and they need to be much better prepared next time.

The Davids also dive into a new plan from Kansas Republicans to bend the state Supreme Court to their will—and warn that, if next year's vote on the GOP's amendment turns into another referendum on abortion, it's likely doomed. They also highlight why a burgeoning effort in New Hampshire to finally end the state's last-in-the-nation primary is a very good thing, and one that other stragglers should follow.

Democrats in Congress are in the middle of an extraordinary battle over government funding, but if they fail to heed their base and stand up to Republicans, the electoral impact could be dramatic—though not in a way they're accustomed to. This week on The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of this shutdown fight and explain why Democrats have little reason to worry it will affect next year's general election but should be very concerned about their own primaries.

The Davids also welcome back Daily Kos Elections alum Matt Booker, who's now a pollster at Change Research. Matt catches us up on the state of polls today and tells us why the data the public sees is just the tip of the polling iceberg. We also discuss the shockingly wide-open race for governor in Matt's home state of New Jersey and pour one out for 538, an invaluable site whose loss will be profoundly felt by anyone interested in elections.

Federal workers who've gotten smashed by Elon Musk's wrecking ball cut a sympathetic figure and have a compelling story to tell—and they could prove to be Democrats' best candidates. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss why Andrew Lennox, a Marine veteran fired from the VA, is likely just the first of many former government employees whose righteous fury Republican office-holders will feel first-hand at the ballot box.

The Davids also welcome on Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa for a deep dive into Lone Star politics. Plesa, who represents one of just a handful of competitive House seats in the state, explains how Democrats, despite being in the minority, have forged alliances with establishment Republicans to keep the far-right at bay. She also previews the looming fight over school vouchers and tells us what to look for in next year's elections.

Democrats have a lot of options when deciding how to oppose Donald Trump—and some of them are making the wrong choices. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we make a case study out of Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch, whose recent outburst at constituents who exhorted him to more forcefully resist Trump could net him a primary challenge. But it's not just Lynch: Anger among Democratic voters and activists is intense, and it could lead to a widespread insurgency that reshapes the party, much as the tea party movement did with the GOP in 2010.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on several races where big news has broken over the last week, including Mitch McConnell's long-awaited retirement announcement—and why would-be Republican successors want nothing to do with him. Also on tap are the open governor's seats in Florida and Ohio, where major Trump-backed candidates just jumped in. And finally, we wrap up with a look at the recent German elections and what they mean for the country's relations with the U.S.

David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, and Aaron Rupar, publisher of Public Notice, held their monthly live chat on Thursday to share their insights on some of the most important stories in American politics, including:

* Why Trump calling himself “king” matters—and how New York is fighting back.

* What it actually means to have a constitutional crisis, and why we’re in one already.

* Why Democrats in Congress should not bail out Republicans on any votes, and much more.

David and Aaron also took a wide range of questions from those who participated live.

If you missed the event, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript.

Tune in at 2 PM ET on the second Thursday of each month to join in the discussion and fire away with your questions! Our next event will take place on March 14. You can participate by downloading the free Substack app or by clicking the link in the email we send out when we go live.

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