The Downballot

The 2025 primaries are underway! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we're recapping all the action from Tuesday's elections in New Jersey and previewing next week's contests in Virginia. As per usual, there are also special elections to discuss, including a monster Democratic overperformance in Oklahoma.

We've also got the bizarre case of Republican Rep. Mark Green, who just announced his resignation … while reportedly in Guayana, where he's apparently in the midst of some mysterious business dealings that have even fellow Republicans saying, WTF?

We've been subject to endless hot takes about last year's elections, but Catalist has much more compelling answers. CEO Michael Frias joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explore his firm's detailed new report, What Happened in 2024, that uses carefully assembled voter data to understand how things really went down.

Frias explains why greater turnout might not have benefited Democrats and doesn't flinch from highlighting serious weaknesses the party has with key constituencies like young Latino men. And as we look toward the midterms, he cautions that MAGA is "not standing still," saying Democrats must be prepared to evolve as well.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also spotlight the huge Democratic overperformance in Tuesday's special election in South Carolina, which was the first to take place in a majority-Black district. And they explain why Iowa Democrat J.D. Scholten was smart to immediately jump into the race against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst after her "we're all going to die" outburst.

Republicans have been trying to make it harder for ordinary citizens to effect change at the ballot box for many years, and their latest effort has now washed ashore in the Sunshine State. This week on The Downballot podcast, Amy Keith, the executive director of Common Cause Florida, joins us to explain how a new GOP bill would impose wild new restrictions on the ballot initiative process, including making it a felony if grandma collects more than 25 signatures on bingo night. But, promises Keith, no matter the hurdles placed before them, Floridians just keep jumping higher.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also preview the top state supreme court races taking place across the country both this year and next. The Davids explain why once-sleepy "retention" elections could be the next major battleground in Pennsylvania and Arizona; how Democrats can expand their majorities in Michigan; and why you shouldn't sleep on Montana, whose top court has acted as an independent check on Republican power-grabs.

Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell has an extraordinary story to tell, and she's sharing it with us on this week's edition of The Downballot podcast. Despite an early life dominated by tragedy, including the death of her twin brother while incarcerated, Campbell rose to become the state's top law enforcement official. She explains how she's used her office both to fight for her constituents—on matters from housing affordability to gun violence—and fight against Donald Trump, with a special focus on his lawless executive order seeking to upend American elections.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's elections, including primaries in Pennsylvania's biggest cities and an extremely unusual special election in New York City. The Davids then dive into the unfolding GOP meltdown in Virginia and explain why the Republican approach to candidate diversity keeps blowing up in their faces. Finally, they preview next year's race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will be another barn burner.

After bursting onto the scene as the newest swing state just a few years ago, Georgia will be a top battleground in next year's midterms up and down the ballot. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is Charlie Bailey, the new chair of the Georgia Democratic Party, to share his insights on 2026. Bailey tells us about the most critical tasks he faces in building up the party and shines a spotlight on key races—including the "full-on MAGAthon" he expects to see consume Republicans.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the huge election in Omaha on Tuesday night, which saw Democrats win the mayor's office for the first time since 2009. The race offers a smart playbook for Democrats seeking to fight back against transphobic GOP attacks. It also serves as a warning sign for Republicans as they try to protect a vulnerable House seat in the area next year.

On the latest edition of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice talk with Taegan Goddard, founder of the must-read site Political Wire. You can become a Political Wire subscriber by clicking the button just below:

On the show, Taegan tells us:

* How a feature in the Wall Street Journal inspired him to create his own news site—all the way back in 1999.

* How he handles the daily firehose of news to deliver pithy summaries for the hardcore news junkies who rely on his work.

* Why businesses and investors who imagine they can plan around Trump’s erratic tariff policies are deluding themselves.

And much more!

If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript by clicking here and looking for the “Transcript” button.

Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.

Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!

If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below:

And if you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:

At long, long, long last, Republicans have abandoned their effort to overturn the election for North Carolina's Supreme Court—which took place all the way back in November. We've closely followed every twist and turn, so naturally we're exploring what it all means, both for Democrats and democracy, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast.

And joining us as our guest is Matt Hildreth, executive director of Rural Organizing, who tells us how Democrats can actually succeed in rural areas—and the common pitfalls they face. Hildreth says that "the messenger matters more than the message" and emphasizes two huge issues of overriding importance to rural voters: housing and child care. He also explains how Donald Trump's tariffs, which are disproportionately impacting farmers, create an opening for Democrats this year and next.

On the latest edition of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice talk with data journalist G. Elliott Morris all about Trump’s sagging job approval ratings.

Elliott, who previously ran the seminal site 538, recently launched his own Substack, Strength In Numbers, which you can subscribe to here:

On the show, Elliott tells us:

* Why history suggests Trump’s numbers could go much lower by the midterms—and could even put the Senate in play.

* How nearly all data we rely on to understand politics—from polls to job reports—are based on estimates that are subject to error and can often change.

* How Democrats have helped sink Trump’s popularity on the last issue that had been his strength, immigration.

And much more!

If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript by clicking here and looking for the “Transcript” button.

Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.

Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!

If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below:

And if you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:

The Virginia GOP is in the midst of a meltdown after the state's governor demanded a fellow Republican running for lieutenant governor quit the race—even though he's the only candidate running. We're examining the mess on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, as well as another big story out of the Old Dominion: longtime Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly's retirement and what it means for his perch atop the House Oversight Committee.

The Davids also dive deep into their favorite topic—North Carolina politics—with Rob Schofield, editor of the invaluable NC Newsline. Schofield explains how his organization grew to fill a gap left by vanishing traditional media and shares his insights on all the major stories unfolding in his home state. On the docket: Gov. Josh Stein's unusually placid relationship with GOP lawmakers; Justice Allison Riggs' unusual post-election campaign for public support; and Sen. Thom Tillis' unusual start in politics. You're sensing the theme for this most unusual of states!

The Downballot is thrilled to announce the publication of the newest edition of our most widely used—and beloved—set of data: our calculations of the 2024 presidential election results for all 435 congressional districts. Naturally, we're talking all about it on this week's edition of our podcast, including why it's such a herculean undertaking and what the numbers tell us. Most important of all, the data points the way to the races that will form the central battleground in the clash for control of the House next year.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from Dick Durbin's retirement in Illinois; a favorable ruling for Democrat Allison Riggs in the never-ending litigation over last year's race for the North Carolina Supreme Court; and why Donald Trump's hilarious decision to issue a dual endorsement in Arizona is bad news for Republicans.