Risk is a mathematical equation—one we can all learn. General Stanley McChrystal explains how.

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Crises are often predictable, even though we cannot know in advance the exact time or form they will take.

9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic were all — to some extent — foreseeable. So, why do governments drop the ball so often?

We need to improve our capacity to predict risk and to become resilient to it.

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About Stanley Allen McChrystal:

Stanley Allen McChrystal is a retired United States Army general, described by former Defense Secretary Robert Gates as, "perhaps the finest warrior and leader of men in combat I (have) ever met." His last assignment was as Commander, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Commander, U.S. Forces Afghanistan (USFOR-A). He previously served as Director, Joint Staff from August 2008 to June 2009 and as Commander, Joint Special Operations Command from 2003 to 2008. McChrystal was reportedly known for saying and thinking what other military leaders were afraid to; this was one of the reasons cited for his appointment to lead all forces in Afghanistan. He held the post from June 15, 2009, to June 23, 2010.

McChrystal has since joined the Yale University faculty, teaching courses in International Relations. His latest book is Team of Teams.

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