The Flow: Real Estate and Money Show

Three weeks ago, five-year fixed mortgage rates were sitting in the high threes. Today, most lenders are above 4%. The reason has nothing to do with Canada's housing market, your credit, or the Bank of Canada. A US-Israel strike on Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, oil jumped from $70 to over $100 a barrel, bond yields spiked, and lenders passed every basis point straight to your mortgage payment. In this episode, Alex breaks down exactly how that chain of events works, where rates are heading, why the Bank of Canada is completely stuck, and what you should actually do right now if you have a renewal coming up.

Equity Assessment tool - https://www.getflowmortgage.ca/equity/assessment

The headline says 450,000 Canadians missed their mortgage payments. That number is misleading, but the real data underneath it is actually more concerning. Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen breaks down what the Bank of Canada study actually found, why 2026 is shaping up to be a critical year for homeowners, and what the warning signs look like before most people even realize they're in trouble.

Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% but the rate hold is the least interesting part.

Tiff Macklem basically went on TV and said he wants to cut but can't. The economy is contracting, groceries are up 30% since 2021, oil just jumped from $60 to $100 a barrel, and the average Canadian filing for insolvency is carrying $67K in unsecured debt before they've even hit their mortgage renewal.

The big banks can't agree on what happens next. TD says hold through 2026. BMO says hold through 2027. RBC says a rate hike to 3.25% by end of 2027. Scotiabank is calling a 50 basis point hike in the second half of 2026 and the bond market is currently pricing in a 73% chance they're right.

If you're on a variable rate, the thesis just took a hit. If you're renewing in the next 8 to 12 months, don't wait for April 29th. Rates are already moving up regardless of what the BOC does next.

MORTGAGE CALCULATOR: https://app.canadianmortgageapp.com/app/flowmortgageco

Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February, oil crossed $100 a barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, and the Bank of Canada rate decision lands March 18th. All three are connected and they all hit your mortgage payment.

The BOC is stuck. Cutting rates pours fuel on oil-driven inflation. Hiking crushes an economy already shedding jobs. So they hold, and over a million Canadians renewing their mortgage this year get no relief.

If you're renewing in the next six months, start the process now, lock in an approval while you're still employed, and don't wait to see what the BOC says.

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This podcast breaks down the proposed “home equity surtax” on Canadian primary residences over $1 million and explains that, despite scary headlines, it is not current government policy. Alex walks through real examples showing most homeowners would pay nothing, while higher-value homes could face annual surtaxes that are meaningful but still far smaller than a full capital gains-style tax. His main takeaway is to pay attention, especially if you own a home over $1.5 million, but not to panic or make financial decisions based on fear because this is still only a proposal, not a law.

Canadian banks are quietly slashing credit limits with zero warning, and 46,000 BMO customers just found out the hard way. Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen breaks down why this is happening, the three red flags that put your credit line at risk, and the simple steps you can take right now to protect yourself before the banks make the decision for you.

Tariffs changed, but housing is still getting squeezed. The big 35% tariffs were struck down, a new 10% tariff came in, and the high steel, aluminum, and lumber tariffs stayed. That keeps build and renovation costs rising, slows new construction, and adds pressure on supply. At the same time, the Bank of Canada is stuck because tariffs keep inflation sticky, so big rate cuts are not likely. With millions renewing from very low rates to much higher payments, Alex’s takeaway is to shop your renewal instead of signing the bank’s first offer, and watch the next key dates that could shift the outlook fast.

The federal GST rebate being discussed could return up to $50,000 to eligible first-time home buyers purchasing qualifying new construction. In this episode, we break down what it actually covers, the real-world savings most buyers will see (often closer to ~$27,000 depending on price), who qualifies, and why it could still push prices higher in some markets. We also explain how to stack the GST rebate with the FHSA, Home Buyers’ Plan, federal tax credits, and provincial programs—plus practical tips so you don’t build your plan around the headline number.

Canada was just ranked by the BIS as having the biggest real home price drop among advanced economies. Even after seven Bank of Canada rate cuts, prices and sales are still falling while listings rise, especially in Toronto and Vancouver because of condo oversupply, weaker confidence, and slowing demand. The key point is Canada is not one market, but the spring recovery narrative may be wrong in major cities and 2026 renewals could keep pressure on prices.

BC’s Feb 17, 2026 budget cuts $1.4B from housing over three years and shuts the Community Housing Fund indefinitely, while adding several tax/cost changes that make building harder. Alex says this will reduce new supply, risking a construction drought and much higher prices later, with BCREA warning up to +27% by 2032. One bright spot: a bigger PTT exemption for purpose-built rentals.