The IRF Podcast

David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst at Intertemporal Economics. Intertemporal Economics bases its analysis on Macroeconomics.

----more----

Following the election of President Biden, US politics is entering an uncertain period ahead of the mid-term elections next year. The Republican Party are struggling to come to terms with the truth of Trump’s narrow defeat. The Democrats have a very expensive fiscal programme to build back better, but President Biden may not have that much time to implement all of the Democrats ambitious policy agenda. Brian discusses why, following the defeat of President Trump last year, there appears to be a major rift in the Republican Party between the Trumpists and the traditional Conservatives. This has been a great topic of discussion in the US. He explains why he believes both the Republican Party and the Democrats will look very different by 2024 and even more so by 2028. Everyone wants unity and one of the issues that unites Americans is that China is a growing threat. He goes on to talk of the developing trends in American society, the changing alignment of cultural affiliations as well as wealth versus non wealth and why he thinks a less strict ideological movement could gain a lot of political power. Brian outlines what investors should be focusing on as we approach the 2022 election season in the US, how he sees the bond market and equity market performing through this period and whether this is a recipe for a strong or weak dollar.

Jamie Stewart of the IRF Podcast is joined by Derek Sicklen, Senior Economist at AAS Economics, to discuss whether bonds and bitcoin will survive the coming stagflation.

----more----

Given the dramatic deployment of monetary and fiscal policy over the past year there has been a renewed interest in money supply. Derek outlined what makes his monetary framework different from those of other economists and how he integrates the concept of fiscal policy into his money supply paradigm and principles. As Austrian Economists, they have a very accurate predictor of target fluctuations. There are significant time lags which vary across countries and also within countries. It is very important to know when a country’s money supply is increasing. Derek discusses the process of monetary creation, how money supply has been driven to levels beyond what would normally be expected and why money supply growth has exceeded the stimulus provided by Central Banks. He talks about current trends in monetary and fiscal policy and how he thinks they will play out over the next 12 months. He then goes onto to give his view ‘in a nutshell’ of the relevance of cryptocurrencies. Derek explains why towards the end of this year and into 2022 we may see a situation of declining growth but increasing inflation. He concludes by stating ‘the stars are aligning for some form of accident perhaps in 2022'.

David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro, to discuss ‘Demographics will Reverse 3 Multi-Decade Trends.’

----more----

There is a growing concern that the Covid-19 pandemic could mark the dividing line between the deflationary forces of the past 30-40 years and resurgent inflation. Manoj discusses the three key demographic trends that will almost inevitably reverse three multi-decade trends and the reason why inflation and the direction of inflation is about to change as demography changes too. He explains how demographic changes will impact on wage growth and consumer price inflation and the impact they will have on equality and also on real interest rates. He gives an insight into what this will mean for US dollar exchange rates and whether the current situation will lead to a currency war. Manoj thinks the pandemic has accelerated and fast tracked a lot of the trends and explains why he believes that markets and policy makers will be wrong regarding inflation going forward.

David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Michael Taylor of Coldwater Economics to discuss: ‘Normality – What is it and can the Financial Markets cope with it?'----more----

Michael Taylor founded Coldwater Economics in 2008 following a distinguished career, based mainly in Asia, as a Senior Economist and Head of Equity Research with several leading investment banks including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

Mike concentrates on tracking approximately 500 different data points each month and knows where the world actually is and where it might be going. He is interested in: Return on Capital; Cash Flows; Profits. He issues ‘shocks and surprises’ emails to his clients on a daily basis; one relating to Asia, another to Europe and another to the US. Since June 2020 the world economic data has been surprising people - they have forgotten what normal inflation is. He discusses why he is sceptical of an inflationary breakout, the challenges he foresees over the next six months and why the US continues to surprise. Mike is cautious about equity markets and explains why a nasty surprise could await us as we get back to normality.

Edward Blad, CEO and Founder of IRF, is joined by Jules Hull of StockViews. StockViews is a fundamental research firm providing clients with indepth reports on Long and Short ideas sourced from European markets.

----more----Recently StockViews has developed a ground-breaking piece of software called Dragonfly, which systematically highlights potential risks in three major areas: Accounting, Earnings Quality and Governance.

As Annual Report season rolls in Jules explains how Dragonfly works and why its focus on details from the notes to the accounts can provide investors with an edge in spotting risks instantaneously. Dragonfly produces automated reports on over 1300 companies in Europe using over 800 raw data points from the financial statements and governance disclosures.

Dragonfly will soon incorporate a unique remuneration framework based on the metrics companies use for long and short term incentivisation.

David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Barry Knapp, Managing Partner and Head of Macro and Public Policy Strategy at Ironsides Macroeconomics to discuss ‘Fiscal Dominance – What are the Economic Implications of this new US Paradigm.’

----more----Barry has had a long and distinguished career in equity derivatives/principal trading/equity strategy research/unconstrained fixing and investment and macroeconomic and public policy strategy.

With the world economy beginning to emerge from the depths of the global pandemic, investors are increasingly focused on the prospects for a period of reflation. What does this mean for future government policies and how well will the financial market react to the policy risks? Barry feels there are serious implications for the US economy reminiscent of what happened in the early 1960s which led to inflationary spiral. We are now in the early stages of that transition towards a higher inflationary regime. Inflationary impulse is greater than it was back in the Global Financial Crisis. Barry identifies the three tail winds for this year when considering the strength of the economic recovery and talks about the differences between the recovery of 2009/10 and that of 2020/21. He goes on to discuss the potential policy risks that he foresees and explains why he is an advocate of reflation trade.

David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by David Ranson, President of HCWE & Co. HCWE has a clientele of institutional investors, hedge funds and family offices throughout North America and Europe.

----more----

With the uneven roll-out of Covid19 vaccines around the world this year, there is a wider than usual range of forecasts for economic growth and inflation both in 2021 and in 2022.  From an investment standpoint a lot depends on the outlook for the US economy. David Ranson explains the difference in the work of HCWE and his evidence for doubting the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies conducted during 2020. He doubts whether stimulus programmes stimulate output. He explains that productivity cannot be used to forecast the economy – you need to look at leading indicators that work during a crisis e.g. VIX index. He states that the economy has shown a great amount of resilience, both in the US and throughout the developed world. ‘Everyone was talking about a recession, but it was nothing like a normal recession. There was an enormous drop in output but it bounced back very quickly, which is quite unlike a recession. What we had was a Great Interruption.’

Please note that slides are available alongside this podcast upon request from the Independent Research Forum ([email protected]).

David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by acclaimed economist and author Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives to discuss whether a bleak future is in store for the UK economy.

----more----Peter is pessimistic about the prospects of the UK economy in the next 3-4 years despite the UK’s relatively strong growth forecast for the year. Whilst Peter predicts a ‘spirited rebound’ in economic activity with the re-opening of the service sector in the second half of the year, Peter envisages this as merely an interval of growth which will last for only a brief amount of time. Peter believes part of the problem with the forecast for the UK economy is that not only has the UK suffered economically from lockdown but also from deglobalisation that has particularly affected London as a major financial centre. Peter goes on to discusses how a pickup in consumer price inflation may affect the UK’s monetary policy and the strength of the Pound and gives an insight into what stock picks may carry investors through a potentially rocky economic environment.

Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist since 1975 and has authored numerous books such as ‘Debt & Delusion’ and ‘The War of Independence: A Declaration’. Peter’s roles in the financial sector have taken him through stints at firms such as Lehman Brothers and Ruffer, alongside founding his UK-based consultancy Economic Perspectives in 1996.

IRF CEO & Founder Edward Blad is joined by Damanick Dantes, CMT of Dantes Outlook for this episode of the IRF Podcast titled 'Top Trades Around the World in 2021'.

----more----Damanick explains his market outlook for 2021 including his thoughts on why the market is still in a risk-on scenario and why pullbacks and corrections in the market provide a buying opportunity for investors, particularly in the Commodities market. Damanick believes that outperformance in Commodities is having a global impact that is notable in Latin American equities and thus also providing investment opportunity. Damanick sees further buying opportunities in the small-cap sector where he feels outperformance is easily found in the current market conditions. Damanick also discusses his thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 and why he thinks weakness should be expected before going on to explain his view generation process, particularly focusing on how his asset allocation background allows him to focus on the long-term picture. Prior to founding Dantes Outlook in 2016, Damanick worked in roles ranging from FX to North American Rates for firms such as Saxo Bank and Fidelity Investments.  

The IRF Podcast’s David Osman is joined by Kathleen Kelley of Queen Anne’ Gate Capital to discuss ‘The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2021’.

----more----Kathleen Kelley brings with her over 25 years of experience in global macro research with frequent television appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg. The podcast touches on the case for commodities to take a leading role in the global economic recovery from COVID-19 due to the reluctance of investors to fill their portfolios with stocks and bonds. Kathleen’s career has given her close connections to OPEC decision-makers and a unique perspective on the oil market as a result. Kathleen explains that Saudi Arabia’s decision to take one million barrels of oil as a ‘gift’ has placed a backstop on non-compliant OPEC members and as a result, producers such as in the US have seen a price increase. Kathleen expects to see oil prices to continue to rise in 2021 and 2022 due to a limited number of providers able to continue production within the next two years. Away from oil, Kathleen has seen as mismatch between supply and demand in base metals but sees this as a problem that has been fixed due to China- the centre of demand’s second lockdown and their stimulus tailing off. In the realm of commodities as a whole, Kathleen sees the total number of assets under management heightening during the COVID recovery. Whilst index funds and ETF’s are the most popular choice at the moment, Kathleen sees more specialisation in investors’ choices in the commodities market going forward.