After 35 years of dominating grade school cafeteria lunchtime, that yellow box filled with hyper-palatable foods is getting “remixed” by the creator packaged goods movement. For those that are living under a rock and didn’t see the product announcement from a few weeks ago, Lunchly is a kid-friendly meal kit that’s positioned as a better-for-you competitor to Lunchables. Now…there’s already several other better-for-you Lunchables competitors in market, but what makes this one noteworthy is that it’s a joint venture between two creator packaged goods brands. Lunchly was a collaboration between PRIME (the beverage brand backed by Logan Paul and KSI) and Feastables (the chocolate brand created by MrBeast). To be completely honest, this is a wild move. So, each box of Lunchly will include a miniature Feastables bar and bottle of PRIME Hydration. Lunchables created line extensions with Snickers, Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, Kool-Aid, and Capri Sun…but we’re talking about two creator packaged goods brands that are co-creating a new “more perishable” product that also sees them both entering a new grocery retail section. So, then the question likely turns to why? Similar to when Lunchables was being developed in the 1980s, there’s maybe the obvious and not so obvious answer. Based on the marketing angle taken thus far, the obvious answer is that Lunchly saw a market opportunity that paired all the previous (and still strong) Lunchables value propositions for parents (like convenience/value) and kids (like wanting to be cool in the school cafeteria), with these better-for-you product attributes. Regardless, Lunchables was actually created to solve a bologna oversupply (and popularity) problem for Oscar Meyer. And though I don’t think anyone involved with Lunchly intentionally created this historical “remix,” PRIME is facing similar oversupply (and popularity) problems right now. According to recent NielsenIQ data reports, PRIME volume has been falling by somewhere around 30% YoY for much of this calendar year. But more interesting to the Lunchables connection is that PRIME has been the target of recent litigation from its supply chain partners…with lawsuits alleging dedicated contract manufacturing capacity investments left unutilized and coconut ingredients contracts cancelled. Additionally, my latest first principles thinking content will explore the historical connections between U.S. food companies by tobacco giants, how Phillip Morris (now Altria) were masters at engineering products to make consumers return for more, and how those hyper-palatable foods are now approved by the U.S. government (USDA) to be included within the National School Lunch Program.

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Allulose is a naturally occurring sugar found in fruits like figs and raisins. According to a recent batch of SPINS innovation index data, Allulose was absurdly out indexing all other sweeteners across the entire grocery store. So, why is allulose banned by Whole Foods Market…and not approved yet for use in Canada and Europe? Maybe because most Allulose is synthesized in a lab, most likely from corn…processed with a genetically modified enzyme. Is Allulose natural…Artificial…GMO or not GMO, heck I enjoy sucralose containing energy drinks daily, so I’m far from the sweetener police. But do the natural CPG entrepreneurs really think that studies showing “Allulose enhanced the GLP-1 activity in rodents” will help clear up the court of public opinion on the trending sweetener?

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A few days ago, images started popping up on social media platforms that showed Starbucks in-store signage giving customers the option of ordering “nutritional blends” that includes AG1 greens powder. And while that partnership didn’t seem far-fetched at all to me…it did have many people in the comments questioning if the images were AI-generated. Maybe that's just a “sign of the times” where you can’t trust anything you see on the internet, but also likely because it’s a small test currently in four markets…and Starbucks themselves put out any information on the AG1 partnership. The only verifiable information on the Starbucks AG1 partnership has come from the Athletic Greens social media accounts confirming the images were real and the supplement brand’s CEO Kat Cole providing some additional details within the comments of the most popular social media posts on LinkedIn. But beyond the test market location details, Kat Cole also confirmed that they’re testing three different Starbucks AG1 Nutritional Blends product variants (two of which are low sugar). In my opinion, this collaborative move (even if its only a test right now) is further confirmation of Athletic Greens doubling down on a competitive advantage. And while AG1 does A LOT of impressive stuff strategically, my latest first principles thinking content will be focused on analyzing a few of its partnership strategies including Starbucks AG1 Nutritional Blends foodservice partnership, WHOOP brand partnership, influencer and creator partnerships, and podcast sponsorships. And then for this final portion, I'll breakdown the competitive but still very much nascent greens supplement market and how that supplement category’s evolution and maturation could impact the next moves by Athletic Greens...which included a signal that AG1 could be showing its availability and interest to private market dealmakers and the public capital markets.

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Longevity has become a cultural phenomenon…and that should be making functional CPG entrepreneurs salivate more than all those customers providing samples for DNA test kits. Did you know that more than half of Americans say it’s their goal to live to 100? But becoming a centenarian wasn’t always a goal sought by most Americans…partly because of what I’ve dubbed the “Mrs. Fletcher Effect.” You might be too young to remember these famous early-90s "I've fallen and I can't get up" TV commercials, but the frailty of Mrs. Fletcher certainly didn’t help public perception of aging populations. Alternatively, when you see “Mrs. Fletcher” typecast in today’s connected TV digital ads…she would be shown playing chess, running a marathon, starting a new business, or traveling extensively with family. But it’s that simple (but massive) paradigm shift, around the image of growing older, which created many second-order effects. Because even if almost everyone accepts that “Father Time” will remain undefeated, more people are realizing they can have some control over the pace and trajectory of functional decline. This behavioral change arguably gained importance in the last decade, as more individuals began viewing themselves as consumers in the healthcare market compared to solely being patients. Because of that, consumer healthcare has begun evolving from a reactive, one-size-fits-all approach to a distinctively proactive, personalized, and integrative approach. But as you’d imagine…that marketplace evolution has created immense opportunities, with American consumers spending billions annually seeking to improve their “health span,” a popular term defined the period of your life that’s spent healthy, rather than simply how long you will physically be alive. A key aspect of this massive opportunity centers around the fact that Millennials and Baby Boomers have increasingly mirrored one another in adopting healthy lifestyle habits. And while it doesn’t happen often, duality can be an extremely powerful force when considering the potential impact of a CPG industry trend. But with consumers of all ages (not just the older ones) looking for ways to extend the number of years they spend free from chronic disease…as well as the physical, cognitive, and emotional decline that can accompany aging, its certainly great news for CPG brands positioned within the emerging and intersecting categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and dietary supplements. And to help entrepreneurs in that pursuit of discovering attractive commercial opportunities, my latest first principles thinking content will cover the top need states (and key functional ingredient trends) within longevity and healthy aging, which includes cognitive health, mobility, muscle health (and strength), cellular health, and better appearance. Finally, I'll quickly run through an often-overlooked consumer insight and marketing strategy that's key to unlocking the booming business of longevity.

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Broadly speaking, these last 2.5 years have been tough on CPG brands relying on investment to turbocharge their growth. But for those that developed fiscal discipline, adapted to the new operational reality, and proved their business model again…the ongoing stillness and fog for investment and M&A is starting to clear. A handful of recent deals reaffirm that strategics are reliant on CPG entrepreneurs to provide innovation and growth that they can’t necessarily create internally. Moreover, venture investments within food and beverage CPG are at the highest point in two years. But I believe CPG entrepreneurs should continue staying cautiously optimistic, even as the once-imminent economic recession has receded. You have expected consumer spending growth to slow, interest rates higher for longer, and ongoing geopolitical risks that could potentially cause more supply chain bottlenecks.

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With the balance sheet in a great place, I think it’s the perfect time for General Mills (NYSE: GIS) to “reshape the brand portfolio” in hopes of staying relevant in today’s high protein grocery world. Over a very recent period of seven days…General Mills signaled twice (quite loudly in fact) that the 168-year-old multinational CPG company is ready to reshape its brand portfolio for growth. The first signal happened on September 12th, when General Mills announced that it has entered into definitive agreements to sell its North American Yogurt business to two leading French dairy companies…in cash transactions that totaled $2.1 billion. And then on September 18th, during the fiscal 2025 first quarter earnings call…General Mills CEO explicitly stated that the intended usage for those divestiture proceeds would be acquire smaller-size bolt-on assets that would enhance growth. For those that don’t follow the architecture of the General Mills brand portfolio, the North America Retail operating unit (which makes up 62% of total sales) is still dependent on what the company calls “morning foods,” with the largest of those foods being cereal. And if we eliminate the “Great Shutdown” outlier period, cereal has been facing long-term sales decline...forcing General Mills to communicate the category's ability to be consumed more as a snack food, but also utilize new product launches that contain much higher protein content (e.g. recent collaboration deal with GHOST Lifestyle Protein Cereal). And this makes sense…especially when you consider that protein has become a kind of "holy water" that instantly anoints any food or beverage with a health halo. In addition to the ubiquitous protein bars, protein powders, and protein beverages, more grams of protein seem to be making its way into anything and everything that’s quick, easy, and accessible…thus penetrating more diverse food and beverage categories. But then based on the previously mentioned investment specifics by General Mills CEO…which handful of CPG brands (focused in/around protein) could be highly probable targets? I'll provide M&A base cases for the following CPG brands; Kodiak, Aloha, IQBAR, Lenny & Larry's, Chomps, and the public company Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ: SMPL) that owns Quest Nutrition, Atkins Nutritionals, and OWYN.

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In today’s big data world, sage advice like “follow your intuition” too often gets criticized within business settings. Yet, having deep domain expertise can improve your intuition breadth and depth…allowing your brain to unlock the powers of pattern-matching…and the ability to more consistently predict what will happen next. And as you’ll hear in this episode, I didn’t need to question how I came to a particular conclusion the first time seeing the early concept for SALUD…I just knew the hydration brand had “winner” written all over it! But maybe I’m giving my “gut” too much credit…and overlooking my 12+ year history with SALUD’s co-founder Tyler McCann. And while us two “outsiders” didn’t spend too much time together at MusclePharm, “The Athletes Company” did form the foundation for our supplement industry knowledge. But beyond briefly talking through some of the most interesting moments from MusclePharm, Tyler and I discuss some of the great/bad/ugly strategic lessons that became iterative direct applications within the commercialization of SALUD. Moreover, we talk through some of the “drivers of demand” (and categorical trends) over the last decade that created massive opportunities within the supplement industry…many of which helped SALUD become a hypergrowth brand. Also, Tyler and I cover the strategic approach at SALUD…including its authentic cultural branding strategy, focused product portfolio, sales channel strategy, and how it has built strong initial brand awareness through scrappy partnerships…leaving many untapped “significant large deals” until the timing is right. Finally, I provide Tyler my “grand vision and goal” for SALUD…that I think even surprised him! But these are just some of the interesting topics we chatted about in this episode...

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AI is the heartbeat of CRISPR gene-editing, precision fermentation, and cellular agricultural when it comes to unlocking boundless consumer-centric food advancements. These deep-learning platforms can design ingredients from billions of edible sequences and apply parameters for producing them. And I know A LOT of you are probably saying, “that’s not natural and probably dangerous,” which I totally understand…but also consider the positive product development aspects of being able to pack more nutrition into products without sacrificing on taste. So, what does PepsiCo do with this powerful technology? It wanted to elevate the consumption experience for gamers who choose Doritos. Gamers download Doritos Crunch Cancellation software and when the technology is turned on, the software detects the crunching sounds and silences it within the gaming experience...while keeping the gamer’s voice intact. No word on when Doritos Silent will be integrated right into the actual flavored tortilla chips.

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Because I cut my teeth in what most call the “Barnum & Baily Circus” side of ingestible CPG (aka the sports nutrition niche of the supplement industry), I’m very used to founders making “big things coming” proclamations. But that being said, I’m struggling to remember the last time I’ve felt this much pre-launch wonder/intrigue around a functional CPG product…with many competitors, retailers, and industry colleagues, reaching out to get my thoughts on David protein bars. Some of this could be attributed to that half-year “hype cycle” leaving many to wonder about the product details, but also that this is the categorical “second act” for Peter Rahal…who previously founded RXBAR, that exited to Kellogg’s in less than five years for $600 million in 2017. But beyond talking through some of the most interesting moments of that RXBAR wild ride, Peter and I discuss some of the strategic lessons from that successful first “protein bar venture” that became iterative direct applications within the conceptualization of David. Moreover, we talk through how watching the protein bar market staleness of the last handful of years helped reignite that entrepreneurial spark (after trying his hand at being a venture capitalist). Also, Peter and I cover the new strategic approach at David…including which “drivers of demand” are most important, the remix inspiration for its visual identity, and the brand’s bold long-term strategic narrative. But these are just some of the interesting topics we chatted about in this episode...

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