Andreas Steno, founder of Steno Research, discusses the resurgence of inflation and its impact on the global economy, and his contrarian take that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate hike. 

In this episode, Steno highlights the labor market as a major driver of inflation, with wage pressures increasing due to labor scarcity. Steno suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates instead of cutting them, but acknowledges the political challenges of such a move. 

He also discusses the macro situation in Europe, with Germany and France struggling while southern European economies thrive.

Steno is the former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea, Northern Europe's largest bank.

This episode was recorded on February 19. 

Links: 

https://stenoresearch.com/

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno

Timestamps 

00:00 Introduction

00:49 The macro view: inflation resurgence

02:38 Indicators of inflation resurgence

04:40 Labor market and wage pressures

07:00 Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

09:00 Possibility of a rate hike

10:26 Implications for markets

14:12 Structural changes in the labor market

15:48 Surprising rebound in asset markets

18:50 The European macro situation 

21:40 Implications of production shifts in Europe

24:00 Watching Europe from the outside

26:00 Portfolio construction 

27:50 The Fed's rate hikes paused too soon

29:15 Parting thoughts 

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 146. 

In this episode, Darius discusses the current market regime and the transition to a reflation regime. He explains the drivers of the reflation regime and the implications for portfolio construction. Dale also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and interest rate policy in the current environment. He highlights the importance of liquidity and its impact on asset markets. Dale concludes by discussing the risks and benefits of the reflation regime and the potential for a market correction.

Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale.

Links: 

42 Macro https://42macro.com/

Darius on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/dariusdale42

42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro

42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro

0:00 Introduction and macro view

1:20 Reflation regime and drivers

6:29 Understanding the Global Macro Risk Matrix

11:50 FOMC and interest rate policy

15:49 Liquidity cycle and implications

21:46 Benefits and drawbacks of the reflation regime

22:05 Risks and existing economic conditions

28:45 Risk of market correction

31:43 Parting thoughts, more on 42 Macro

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 145 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics.

In this episode, Woo shares his macro framework, emphasizing the intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics and the need to understand their impact on market outcomes. Woo also explores the potential risks and challenges facing the US economy, including political instability and polarization. 

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy, & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 and the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested. With the increased political polarization in the U.S., Woo sees a real pressure point once we enter the third quarter.

“Once we get into July, we're four months away from the election, I think it's going to feel like shit. I think America, Americans are going to be petrified about what is going to be in store for the country in the final four months leading up to the election,” Woo said, adding that when safeguards to the system get “seriously stress tested” it will be “a huge economic headwind” to households and companies. 

Elsewhere, he shares contrarian investment views and highlights the importance of facts and numbers in public discourse. Finally, Woo discusses his work with David Woo Unbound and the mission to bring diverse perspectives together for meaningful discussions.

Links: 

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

0:00 Intro

1:18 Macro view and why it’s harder to make money 

3:05 Intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics 

4:52 Biden has to get the economy right, needs a soft landing 

6:50 Game Theory with oil prices 

9:00 Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy 

13:00 Government spending contributed 1/3 of GDP growth last year

17:30 Economic risk in the U.S. 

18:40 Political risk

22:00 Political division ahead of election day 

26:26 Contrarian views and ideas today 

34:44 Perception of the U.S. from the outside 

42:20 Parting thoughts 

Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he’s not throwing in the towel on his recession call.

Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators. 

Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury.

SPECIAL OFFER: Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show can access a free 30-day trial of Rosenberg Research with no upfront commitment. The free trial grants access to Rosenberg Research’s premium service, where you’ll receive complimentary macro and market insights every day.

Request a trial at this link: https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture

0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel

2:55 State of the consumer

4:15 Fiscal stimulus

6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns 

7:30 Recession call 

10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy 

12:00 GDP and GDI 

14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings

15:00 Employment 

22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag

24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies 

26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year

28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5%

35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond

38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates

44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war

48:27 Equity risk premium 

53:33 Bob Farrell's influence

57:44 Parting thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 143. 

In this episode, Danielle provides an update on the economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the job market and the increase in layoffs. She discusses the impact of the white collar recession and the decline in net worth for high-income individuals. DiMartino Booth also shares her insights on the market performance and the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates. She suggests a question for Fed Chair Powell regarding the regulatory changes and their impact on the financial system. Additionally, DiMartino Booth emphasizes the importance of backlogs as an indicator and discusses the current state of the economy in an election year.

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links: 

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Takeaways

Timestamps 

00:00 Introduction and update on the economy

03:08 Job market and layoffs

08:25 White collar recession

10:03 Market performance 

15:06 Outlook for interest rates

17:19 Question for Fed Chair Powell

18:41 The importance of backlogs as an indicator

20:05 Recession

21:34 Journalism background and Warren Buffett

24:00 Parting thoughts

Dr. Burton Malkiel, author of the influential book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," which revolutionized how people approach investing, joined Julia La Roche on episode 142.

Link: https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/1324051132

0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Burton Malkiel 

1:30 Writing ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ 

4:30 Reaction to ‘A Random Walk’ 

5:30 90% of active managers do worse than the index 

8:14 Investing in the first index fund, and its returns 

12:48 This is the way to invest

19:30 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

22:29 Bitcoin spot ETF, bubbles 

27:18 Debunking that ETFs distort financial markets, fuel a passive investing bubble 

33:40 Efficient Market Hypothesis and what the media gets wrong

38:20 View of the markets, macroeconomics  

43:50 Retirement crisis ahead?

48:48 Background

50:38 Parting thoughts

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of “The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report," provides a macro view of the global economy and financial markets. He discusses the diverging trends in different countries and the impact on standards of living. 

Dr. Faber expresses concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the high levels of debt in the US. He recommends investing in gold as a safe asset and highlights the undervalued opportunities in Latin America. 

Dr. Faber emphasizes the importance of being a contrarian investor and encourages individuals to focus on personal freedom and not rely on government interventions. In uncertain times, Faber advises diversification as a strategy, allocating assets to stocks, precious metals, real estate, and cash and bonds. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a consistent asset allocation regardless of market conditions.

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Marc Faber

01:13 Macro view 

04:00 Cost of living in advanced economies is higher 

06:00 EM valuations attractive, US expensive 

08:46 Long-term cycles of inflation and interest rates

10:00 Inflation is not under control

11:28 The rich have never had it this good in their lives

12:27 A silent depression for ordinary people 

14:45 Long-term cycles of inflation, interest rates in context of growing debt

20:00 Printing money

23:20 Re-acceleration of inflation 

26:00 The Economics of Inflation 

28:01 ‘If you trust the central banks, you’re stupid’

35:08 Gold and precious metals 

48:17 Recession outlook

50:39 Investment opportunities, asset allocation 

54:50 Parting thoughts 

Jeff Sherman, Deputy CIO of DoubleLine Capital, joins The Julia La Roche Show for episode 140 to break down the first FOMC meeting of 2024 and his outlook for the economy and the markets, inflation, and more.

Takeaways

Timestamps: 

00:00 Introduction and welcome

01:00 FOMC meeting reaction

05:27 QT  

11:20 Positive real yield investment opportunities 

14:50 Stocks vs. bonds 

20:00 Economic outlook 

30:00 Value threshold is higher 

32:30 Inflation

39:00 Risks

Links: 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap and https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPod

DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com/

Podcast: doubleline.com/podcasts/

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on economics.

Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" due to his tendency to make pessimistic predictions, shared his near-term macro outlook for 2024, pointing out that a hard or no landing scenario looks unlikely, and a soft or soft-ish landing is the most likely probability. 

Elsewhere, Roubini gave an update on the medium-to-longer-term outlook, which includes ten interconnected megathreats that collectively are a slow-moving trainwreck.

Roubini is the Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com. He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.

Links:

Megathreats book: https://www.amazon.com/MegaThreats-Dangerous-Trends-Imperil-Survive/dp/031628405X

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/nouriel

Website: https://nourielroubini.com/

0:00 Intro and welcome

1:00 Macro view — soft landing, no landing, or hard landing scenario

3:54 No landing and hard landing scenario don’t look as likely today

6:00 The downside scenario 

9:03 Why we avoided a recession in 2023

12:49 Update on Megathreats, worrisome risks in the longer-term, stagflation

20:00 Impact of AI, positive deflation 

23:00 Deaths of despair 

28:38 Debt situation, the mother of all debt crises 

31:00 Inflation in the medium-term, 5 or 6%

34:00 Fiscal dominance

36:00 Addressing the debt situation in the U.S. 

41:00 Inflation rate likely 6% rather than 2%, impact on 10-year treasury, mortgage rates

46:00 Take on the markets. Are they pricing in a soft landing? 

49:30 Bitcoin, Bitcoin Spot ETF, and crypto

55:25 World Economic Forum in Davos, the conventional wisdom of WEF is always wrong

Peter Mallouk, CEO and President of Creative Planning, a $245 billion RIA, shares his macroeconomic view, emphasizing long-term optimism due to low unemployment, emerging markets, and technological innovation. He advises investors to focus on the long run and not be swayed by short-term risks. 

Mallouk discusses the potential for rate cuts, the US debt situation, and his skepticism towards cryptocurrencies and gold as investments. He recommends a diversified portfolio focusing on equity-oriented investments, including stocks and private equity. Mallouk also highlights the importance of avoiding common investor mistakes and maintaining a long-term perspective.

Takeaways

Links:

Money, Simplified book: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Simplified-Peter-Mallouk/dp/B0CLZ1W9RD

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/PeterMallouk

Creative Planning: https://creativeplanning.com/

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Macroeconomic view

03:14 Navigating short-term risks

04:42 Market outlook for 2024

06:15 Investing in stocks, small caps

07:38 International markets

08:28 Federal Reserve and interest rates

10:30 US debt situation is the No. 1 risk 

14:00 Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies

15:23 Role of gold in a portfolio, Mallouk not a fan of gold

17:06 Preferred investments

18:54 Common investor mistakes

20:21 Investor psychology

23:07 Peter Mallouk's journey

24:46 Where to find Peter Mallouk

25:17 Long run optimism