Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 185 to discuss the macro view and political turmoil in the U.S., including the attempted assassination of former President Trump. This episode was recorded on July 18.

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.

An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and overview

05:46 The current political landscape and global events

16:49 Trump's path to victory

22:27 Internal dynamics within the Democratic Party

26:26 Discussions of a virtual roll call for Biden's nomination

31:03 Biden withdrawing and Harris becoming the nominee

35:11 The landmine of Congress certification in 2025

50:47 The path towards a recession

56:34 The stock market bubble and concentration risk

59:33 AI

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.

Three years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. And he expects inflation will fall to his expected range of 2.5-3% by the end of the year. He also expects that we'll enter a recession later this year or early next year.

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke

01:05 Big picture, macro view, Quantity Theory of Money

06:20 Inflation headed to 2.5-3% zone by year-end, sees recession ahead

07:40 Grading the Federal Reserve's policies, they get an 'F'

12:40 How the money supply works

16:21 Inflation below 2%?

17:30 Debt and deficit

21:52 Need for a Constitutional amendment to control government spending

23:48 End game if we don't address the debt situation

24:44 A fiscal illusion

Neil Howe, an author, historian, demographer, economist, and consultant best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 183 to discuss the Fourth Turning. Julia and Neil recorded this episode on Friday, July 12. After the attempted assassination of former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, Neil and Julia spoke again for about 20 minutes on Sunday afternoon, which airs at the beginning. 

Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. 

In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. 

Links:  

Twitter/x: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration 

The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734

Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome Neil Howe

1:09 Neil Howe reaction to assassination attempt on former President Trump

4:30 We’re in an era where people are more tolerant of violence 

6:20 How would we react? 

9:31 Breakdown of trust — where are people finding trust? 

11:11 A path forward? 

16:20 Parting thoughts — be hopeful about the future and long-term destination

19:10 Neil Howe July 12 interview intro 

20:30 Generational theory, the four turnings 

25:50 Crises that shape generations 

27:55 Great Awakenings 

33:40 Where are we in the Fourth Turning? The election? Tribalization of America 

36:20 “I worry about November 5th…” 

41:23 Political risk-taking

44:40 Four Turnings

48:30 Crisis period

Economist and author Tyler Cowen, the Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, joins Julia La Roche on episode 182. 

Links: 

Marginal Revolution: https://marginalrevolution.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen

00:00 Introduction and welcome Tyler Cowen

01:11 Big picture — the scary and the wonderful  

03:37 Optimist

04:40 The Great Stagnation and AI 

06:18 The impact of AI on investing

08:14 Human connections will matter more 

10:45 Our debt will probably prove manageable because of AI

11:22 How AI will change how we live

13:50 Education 

16:39 AI and jobs

18:17 Debt 

21:17 U.S. psychology 

23:37 Conflicting narratives of the economy

24:40 Immigration

26:25 Talent 

29:13 Food and capitalism 

32:20 Approach to life 

33:20 Great Financial Crisis — why real estate wasn’t a bubble 

36:20 Investing: Be long

38:36 Travel and humanity 

42:00 Views

43:40 Election year 

45:50 Parting thoughts 

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 181 to discuss the economy, why he thinks the Federal Reserve is worried about a recession next year, and his take on the upcoming election.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen

01:00 Macro view

03:00 Stress tests

05:50 The Consumer

07:30 Silent crisis in commercial

11:24 Election

14:45 Trump win good for the economy

17:30 Inflation

21:20 Rate policy

25:30 Trump

29:00 Parting thoughts

Entrepreneur-turned-investor Andrew Wilkinson, founder and chairman of Tiny, a Victoria, Canada holding company that invests mostly in tech, joined Julia La Roche on episode 180 to share his new book, “Never Enough: From Barista To Billionaire.

Once a barista in a small cafe making $6.50 an hour, Andrew Wilkinson built a business valued at over a billion dollars by the time he was 36—and yet, his path to success was anything but a straight line.

In Never Enough, Wilkinson pulls back the curtain on the lives of the ultra-rich, sharing insights into building a successful business that has been called a “Berkshire Hathaway, but for internet companies,” and a surprising first-person account of what it's actually like to become a billionaire.

Never Enough features both the lessons Wilkinson has learned as well as the many mistakes made on the road to wealth—some of which cost him money, happiness, and important relationships.

Taking a "no secrets" approach to stories the wealthy rarely reveal, Wilkinson is unwaveringly honest about some of the unexpected downsides of money: its toxic effect on personal relationships, how the lifestyles of the rich and famous aren't all they're cracked up to be, and how competition with peers leaves everyone—even billionaires—feeling like they never have enough.

In this book, you'll discover:

In this rare and deeply honest account, Wilkinson examines his journey to nine zeros, what came after that pinnacled number, and the essential things money can't buy.

Links: 

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Never-Enough-Billionaire-Andrew-Wilkinson/dp/1637744765

Twitter/X: https://x.com/awilkinson

0:00 Intro and welcome Andrew Wilkinson

1:48 Macro view 

6:23 AI 

10:00 'Never Enough' book

11:35 A form of self-therapy 

13:00 If you swim with the sharks, you’ll become one 

14:00 Making things right

17:00 Starting businesses as a teen

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 179.

Links: 

PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward

00:00 Intro and welcome Ed Dowd  

00:46 Macro picture 

02:14 On the precipice of a slowdown in the economy

03:15 State of the real economy 

04:30 Disconnect in the U.S. stock market, a fast and furious correction

10:17 Preparing for the correction: allocating portion to T-Bills

11:38 Generational opportunity 

13:30 Growing debt and deficits 

15:45  Need the austerity candidate 

16:58 A looming crisis 

18:48 UBI and a CBDC 

22:25 Gold 

24:30 Toxic brew 

27:29 Erosion of the middle class

29:00 Inflation 

30:40 Rate cut 

33:00 Policy error of the Fed

36:20 Real estate 

38:00 Immigration 

40:13 GDI for average middle class went up under Trump

42:12 Chaos creates opportunity 

46:12 Phinance Technologies: Providing Alternative Perspectives on the Market

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group and a CNBC contributor, discusses the mixed and uneven state of the economy. He highlights the contrasting trends in different sectors, such as housing, consumer spending, and manufacturing. Boockvar also discusses the impact of government spending and the labor market on the overall economy. He emphasizes the confusion and challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation and interest rates. Boockvar shares his outlook on the future, including the potential for slower US growth, the importance of Asia in driving economic growth, and his investment preferences in commodities and Asian markets.

Links: 

Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar

Bleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar

00:51 Macro view, “the most mixed and uneven economy that I've seen” and it feels more like a 1.5% growth rate rather than 3%

04:47 Labor market 

05:45 What’s happening in the rest of the world economies? 

08:00 Inflation

09:11 The Fed and interest rates

11:03 Bear steepener 

13:40 New normal 

18:40 Housing market outlook

21:45 When will the rising debt/deficit be a problem? 

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 178 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market.  

In this episode, Mike Green discusses some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they've led to the current market conditions. 

Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.

Links:

Follow Mike on Twitter/x: https://twitter.com/profplum99 

Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/

Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/

0:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green 

0:56 Macro picture 

2:27 Markets 

4:30 The Boomers always win 

8:38 Assessment of the health of the economy 

12:00 Reduction in hours, increase in part-time work 

12:55 Impact of passive investing 

20:40 Largest stocks most affected by passive flows

23:00 Everyone has become automated 

25:17 How does this end? An accelerated reversal of the gains? 

28:49 Perception of retirement wealth

31:00 Ponzi funds 

35:30 Social security 

37:00 Markets divorced from fundamentals 

41:09 The Fed

Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets. 

Link: 

https://www.treussard.com/julia

Timestamps: 

00:00 Intro and welcome Jonathan Treussard

00:52 Macro view, confusing data, too much volatility 

04:11 Wealth inequality 

05:33 AI

06:33 Is the economy healthy? 

07:55 Money illusion

10:07 Bubbles and assessing market valuations

14:36 Geopolitics 

17:50 Middle class 

19:50 From musician to economist

27:15 Changing perception of America

30:34 Market risks: Nvidia, CRE, Private Equity, and Private Credit

36:00 Banking system 

38:33 Concerns about CRE and private credit

41:37 Making decisions under uncertainty 

45:12 Parting thoughts