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Wes, Eneasz, and David keep the rationalist community informed about what’s going on outside of the rationalist community
Support us on Substack!
News discussed:
Wisconsin “partial veto” upheld
Trump did the math wrong. The China tariff is 145%
According to WSJ (WSJ), someone distracted pro-tariff advisor Navarro
Everyone is insider trading
There are a bunch of exceptions for tech products, but not inputs to tech products
China is suspending critical mineral exports
China is strengthening alliances w SE Asia and reaching out to Europe
British Steel thing
California sued the Trump administration, alleging that use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs is unlawful
SCOTUS told Trump to bring back at least one guy in El Salvador jail
Bukele says he’s not going to “smuggle a terrorist into the United States”
Trump thinks SCOTUS ruled in his favor
he should have been deported due to multiple domestic violence restraining orders
Sen. Chris Van Hollen flew down to El Salvador to meet with him personally
SCOTUS: no more El Salvador removals while case in pending
We’re deporting all the smart people
EU gives staff 'burner phones, laptops' for US visits
Trump EO: do more coal mining on federal lands!
4chan is dead
Also, the Pope
Trump sent Harvard a ridiculous list of demands, and they refused
There is now a portal for deregulation suggestions
The White House is looking to replace Pete Hegseth as defense secretary
UK Supreme Court: trans women aren’t biological women
PA governor’s mansion set on fire while he & fam slept inside it.
Hilarious news
a German man was jogging in a park when he spotted a dead body. The German police called in homicide, cadaver dogs, morticians, etc. and investigated for five hours before they discovered the “dead body” was, in fact, a sex doll.
Judge denies qualified immunity to police officers who argued they had arguable probable cause to believe a driver was stoned
Director Kratsios of the office of Science and Technology Policy: “Our technologies allow us to manipulate time and space.”
Happy News!
Cambridge University's Institute of Astronomy found chemicals associated with life in alien planet's atmosphere.
OpenPhil donates $500k to save Tuberculosis vaccine study at Harvard
Scientists in Pennsylvania have created an antiviral chewing gum
Troop Deployment
Wes - Cowboy Chords by the Fine Vintages
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News discussed:
At least one person deported had no criminal record or tattoos, and was here on a legal asylum claim
Other people taken for random tattoos
Tariffs on everyone except Russia & North Korea
They didn’t even use the formula right
“Critical Trade Theory”
Kelsy Piper demonstrates how adults would approach tariffs
Stocks jumped massively on fake news of tarriff delay, Trump says lolno, stocks back down
China responds with 34% tariff
Vietnam offers to remove all tarriffs
Netanyahu vowed to eliminate Israel’s trade deficit
EO: proof of citizenship required to vote in federal elections
Trump fired a federal prosecutor who was prosecuting one of his wealthy donors
Peter Marks forced out of FDA(by RFK?)
Seems like it was because RFK hates vaccines
Trump fired the head of the NSA because Laura Loomer told him to
Says he won’t rule out running for a 3rd term
Hundreds of palestinians protest against Hamas in Gaza.
Hamas forcibly disperses them, only tortured to death a few.
Le Pen used $4.5M of EU funds to pay her party’s political staff
Claims this is lawfare
Protestors rally in support in Paris
Israel just announced “expanding operations” to seize “extensive territory”
Putin is drafting 160,000 new soldiers
“Black babies do better with black doctors” was a lie
Quote: “I’d rather not focus on this. If we’re telling the story from the perspective of saving black infants this undermines the narrative.”
Cory Booker sets a record for talking a lot in the Senate
State Supreme Court elections in Wisconsin and Florida retain status quo of D/R split
AI-2027 is the latest in the AI Essay Meta
Happy News!
Chinese autonomous passenger drones (driverless flying taxis)
AquaDream, the world’s first fully underwater theme park. roller coasters beneath the waves, drift past glowing jellyfish, dodge sharks, and even race dolphins. No word on if they’ve discovered a magic-power-granting insanity-drug. From the video game “Don’t Create BioShock”
A woman with complete paralysis and zero vocal function just regained the ability to speak at ~conversational speed. Fancy Nature Article here, twitter thread breakdown here
Direwolves are back!
Got something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at [email protected]. Say something smart and we’ll mention you on the next show!
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News discussed:
Kelsey Piper and friends dug deep into PEPFAR effectiveness
The astronauts stranded on the ISS are back safe. And they were greeted back to Earth by a pod of dolphins!
Federal government awards contract for our angry triangle to Boeing
ICE rounded up a bunch of Venezuelans and flew them to prison in Venezuela
Roberts responds in a public statement
Vance is explicitly promoting defiance of the courts
Chief Justice Roberts's 2024 year-end report calls it out directly.
Green Card Holder Who Has Been in US for 50 Years Detained for weeks.
Canadian held for two weeks in prison for document snafu
EO Abolishing DoEd.
What the DoEd actually does:
Bad news on the economy
RFK is trying to remove cell phones from schools
Gaza war back on
Bombed the s**t out of the Houthis, Iran disavows, Trump doesn’t buy it
SecDef was discussing the plan on Signal with a reporter
Russia & Ukraine agreed not to damage energy infrastructure
Russia immediately attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure
Subscriber request: NYU was hacked
Education Department investigating more than 50 colleges and universities over racial preferences
Columbia University has agreed to a list of demands in return for negotiations to reinstate its $400m Columbia said it expelled, suspended, or temporarily revoked degrees from some students who seized a building during campus protests last spring
Greenpeace must pay more than $660 million in damages
Happy News!
Prisoners in solitary confinement given VR
Taiwan signed a deal to invest $44 billion in Alaskan LNG infrastructure
MIT engineers turn skin cells directly into neurons for cell therapy
Mexican government found a swarm of giraffes in the state bordering El Paso
BYD (china) unveiled a new battery and charging system that it says can provide 249 miles of range with a five-minute charge
Idaho cuts regulations by 25% in four years by implementing Zero-Based Regulation
Utah just passed a permitting reform law
Troop Deployment
David - If you liked The Dragon’s Banker, you should read Oathbreakers Anonymous
Eneasz - How To Believe False Things
Wes - Men and women are different, but not that different
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News discussed:
Making nuclear fusers is a DIY thing for tech people, but you can kill yourself
DoJ dismissed police/fire cases against Durham, Maryland, and South Bend
PEPFAR is not, in fact, back
It’s effectiveness is probably overstated, but still substantial
RFK says you should maybe, perhaps, consider getting the MMR vaccine
Texas measles outbreak now has 29 hospitalizations and 1 death
Kash Patel in as director of the ATF.
25% tariffs went into effect on Mexico & Canada
Exemptions for car makers. Also all USMCA-compliant goods
Ontario put 25% surcharge on electricity sales to U.S.
They backed down 20 minutes ago
Trump: our tariffs will increase by however much you tariff us!
Some Canada and Mexico tariffs paused, then more paused
Trump says we’re increasing Canadian steel tariff to 50% and will increase tariff on cars April 2nd.
Trump wants to sell green (“gold”) cards for $5 million
ICE arrested a grad student Palestinian activist on a green card
Volokh: it’s unclear if they can actually do this
Being held in Louisiana.
“Antisemitism Task Force” cut $400 million from Columbia university
Administration revoked Chevron’s license to pump oil in Venezuela
Trump EO: law firm that represented Hilary Clinton in 2016 loses security clearances, contracts, and access to federal buildings (like courts!)
Trump DoJ dropped civil fraud charges against Justin Sun after he invested $75mil in Trump’s shitcoin
Bitcoin lost value immediately after announcing Bitcoin Reserve
The CDC is doing a study on vaccines & autism. JFC
Autism diagnoses have probably been rising because of incentives, not because of vaccines
during state of union Rep Al Green was so disruptive he was escorted out by the sergeant-at-arms.
Twitter is currently getting DDOS’d apparently
Armed gunman arrested outside the White House
SCOTUS: Trump must pay USAID contractors who completed work before EO was issued
SCOTUS: San Francisco can s**t all over the ocean and the EPA can’t stop them
Virologists found a coronavirus in bats that can spread to humans and did experiments with it in a lab that doesn’t have good biosafety protocols. This year.
Emergent Misalignment. Training an AI to write intentional vulnerable code will make it broadly evil across many domains!
“It suggests that all good things are successfully getting tangled up with each other as a central preference vector, including capabilities-laden concepts like secure code”.
See Zvi for a comprehensive post
Poland planning to give military training to every adult male, wants an army of 500,000 (currently 200,000) and announces plans to develop a nuclear arsenal.
Zelenski s**t the bed and torpedoed Ukrainian relations with the Trump admin
A Nordic company refused to sell fuel to an American navy submarine, which is a decision you sure could make.
US cut off intelligence sharing (satellite surveillance) with Ukraine
Last year US fit Ukrainian F-16s with EW pods (radar jammers). They require regular updates to remain useful, Trump is cancelling them (French fighter jets to step in)
Europe is realizing US can just stop supporting the weapons they buy
the Ukrainians threw a box of bees into a Russian bunker to clear it.
The South Korean fighters bombed Seoul (by accident)
Syria erupts in conflict
Kurdish break-away section of Syria agrees to reintegrate into Syria
Happy News!
Sick video https://x.com/Firefly_Space/status/1898033592191582430
Colorado Gov Polis moving to abolish 2-staircase requirement for midrise buildings.
We have a new mRNA vaccine for pancreatic cancer
Children with autosomal recessive deafness 9 were given single shots of a new gene therapy in each ear, and after just a month, they were able to hear. (ht Cremieux)
Covid killed Influenza B!
Sweep The Leg Johnny!! Martial Arts instructor chases down purse-snatcher, kicks him in the leg, recovers purse.
42-yr-old lady with black belt attacks a man robbing a gas station, kicks him in the leg, he flees.
Troop Deployment
Eneasz - Folks are sleeping on married people
Got something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at [email protected]. Say something smart and we’ll mention you on the next show!
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Intro/outro music: On Sale by Golden Duck Orchestra
Wes, Eneasz, and David keep the rationalist community informed about what’s going on outside of the rationalist community
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News discussed:
Ziz arrested with accomplices (WSJ here)
Big EO on shrinking federal workforce
Bird flu researchers
Nuclear weapon safety people
FAA “probationary” technicians and engineers
Most “probationary” positions across all the govt
They are barely saving anything and making up numbers
Elon on Saturday: what would you say you do here?
Big EO on cutting regulations
Hegseth is trying to cut 8% of military budget each year for next five years
Trump fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, + chief naval officer and vice chief of staff of air force.
Trump justice department dismissed Eric Adams indictment
Hagan Scotten, got two Bronze stars in Iraq - “I expect you will eventually find someone who is enough of a fool, or enough of a coward, to file your motion. But it was never going to be me.”
Judge canceled April trial but left charges intact
Mitch McConnell was the only vote against RFK and Gabbard
Kash Patel confirmed as FBI director
Trump defunded Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
NIH caps “indirect costs” at 15%
Trump is trying to kill NYC congestion pricing
Also posted this
Utah banned public sector unions from collectively bargaining
Hanania: “Conspiracies against the taxpayer no longer allowed in Utah”
Largest measles outbreak in 30 years in Texas
German snap elections big win for center-right
Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip includes eight quantum bits
Sam Altman gearing up for biggest theft in history
Musk offers nearly $100B for OpenAI, rejected
Vance speaks at AI Summit - full speed ahead and F safety
Trump Attacked Zelesky and blamed him for starting the war
Demanding 50% of Ukraine’s mineral deposits
Wants Russia back in the G7
Happy News!
Bay Area startup working on gene-edited super babies! (also interview with lead at TBC)
Michael Jordan Opens 4th Health Clinic in Home State of North Carolina.
Baby humpback whale gets stranded on a beach, pushed back out by everyone around.
Woman in flipped, burning truck rescued by those nearby.
Brickworkers teach their friend how to read every day during their lunch break
Troop Deployment
Eneasz - Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one’s happening near you? Fill this out!
Got something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at [email protected]. Say something smart and we’ll mention you on the next show!
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Intro/outro music: On Sale by Golden Duck Orchestra
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News discussed:
Walking 4 days for PEPFAR treatment
Counter
FAA authorized mystery drones
Trump turned the government off and back on
Only 1% took the Musk buyout
Canada’s border security measure was announced in December
USPS stopped deliveries from China for 1 day.
Reciprocal tariffs announced, 25% on steel & aluminum
Trump possibly terminating USAID
this is pretty bad, but I’m against Hostage Puppies
National Science Foundation laying off 25% to 50% of staff
Trump EO: create a sovereign wealth fund
With what surplus?? Or are we just nationalizing industries?
Trump cut funding to UN Human Rights Council and UNRWA
Order imposes sanctions on ICC
Trump wants to take over Gaza
No one wants Gazans, “worst nightmare”
Egypt is hosting emergency Arab summit
Trump signed EO saying he’ll deport non-citizens who took part in Gaza protests
Trump is housing migrants at Guantanemo Bay
EO states Title IX must separate by biological sex
Elon Musk + staff gain access to Treasury payment system.
5 days later judge blocks access. ordered the destruction of any downloaded information.
Some public derisions about some of DOGE staff being young?
Fight-For-25 vibes
The CIA sent an unclassified email to the White House listing the first name and last initial of all new hires in the last two years
DNC elected new leadership including David Hogg as vice chair
TracingWoodgrains article on FAA hiring scandal
Iraqi man who burned Quran at a protest in Sweden in 2023 shot dead
Man in Manchester (England) arrested for… burning a Quran.
Do we need another Everyone Draw Muhammad Day?
Anthropic really does give the promised money to charities.
A young man slowly builds credibility with an AI to convince it to help him build a nuclear fusor
$Trump and $Melania memecoins
DJT stock still at $6.5 billion market cap
Happy News!
Czech beavers built a dam before government could even apply for permits
We have laser guns!
HELIOS - “High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance”
We have a treatment for prion diseases!
Dog treats made from cultured meat available in UK
Chemical building blocks of life and a history of saltwater on samples returned to Earth from the asteroid Bennu
first new pharmaceutical approach to treating pain in more than 20 years. Non-opiod!
Shortage of IV fluids for animals in Australia addressed by vet asking for discarded half-full bags from blood donation centers
No more pennies!
Troop Deployment
Eneasz - That Ol' Comfy Racism
Got something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at [email protected]. Say something smart and we’ll mention you on the next show!
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Wes, Eneasz, and David keep the rationalist community informed about what’s going on outside of the rationalist community
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News discussed:
Newsome made it illegal to offer to buy fire-damaged properties at market rates
Hawaii did that after their devastating fires 18 months ago and were stopped via lawsuits brought by the Sierra Club and ACLU
Biden Shenanigans
Claims the Equal Rights Amendment passed
Biden pardoned his shady family members, Fauci, Milley, and Jan. 6 committee on the way out
Commuted sentences of 2,500 more nonviolent offenders
SEC is suing Elon Musk for fake reasons
Ceasefire in Gaza
Trump Executive orders
Revoked 78 Biden EO’s
Bio sex only on federal documents
No more DEI programs for feds or contractors
repealed EO 11246, the “origins of woke” one
DEI grifters put on paid leave already
Terminated birthright citizenship??
A judge has already blocked it - “blatantly unconstitutional”
Declared emergency at Southern border
Build! The! Wall!
Also directs military to enforce border control
Also paused refugee program
Also deny funding to sanctuary cities and deport illegal migrants
Speaking of which - Houthis too!
GULF OF AMERICA!
CO state gov fucked Mt Evans in 2023
Freeze on all new regulations
DOGE neutered?
Declared a “national energy emergency”
But also suspended offshore wind projects
Then added solar on federal lands
Revoked EO allowing CEQ to make rules (previously suspended by DC Circuit)
Made Architecture Great Again
Withdrawal from Paris Climate Agreement and WHO
Pardon for all Jan. 6th rioters
And Ross Ulbricht, the Dread Pirate Roberts
No more remote work :(
Also hiring freeze
Also reclassified “policy-influencing” positions as Schedule F
Revoked security clearance for everyone who said Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation
Other Trump stuff
Hegseth confirmed 51-50
Trump reinstated ban on money going to foreign NGOs that perform or promote abortions
State Department put “freeze” on all foreign aid
halted PEPFAR program and President’s Malaria Initiative
Trump fired 18 inspectors general
Euros refloating the idea of putting boots on the ground in Ukraine
Tik Tok Ban?
SCOTUS ruled 9-0 that the ban is Constitutional
Trump EO says not to enforce law for 75 days
Colombia wouldn’t let 2 planes of deportees to land, Trump threatened universal 25% tariffs, Colombia yielded.
OpenAI announces $500B AI infrastructure project
DeepSeek - Chinese AI company - releases a competitor to ChatGPT.
Nvidia down 17% in one day, many other tech stocks also down.
Local violent deathcult ups their body count by 2
The Vietnamese Communist Party adopts Mileism as national policy
Happy News!
Justice Department is going to stop suing police departments for having standards!
Rents in Austin are 8% less this year, third year in a row, and still going down :)
FDA approves new depression treatment - ketamine-based nasal spray
68yr old today healthier and more generally capable than 62yr old of a decade ago.
Truck Driver - Timothy VanNostrand - Intervenes in Highway Shootout, prevents shooter from escaping
Olympic Kite Surfer Saves Drowning Woman, with video
Troop Deployment
Eneasz - The Patriarchy is run by women, and Barbie knows it
Got something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at [email protected]. Say something smart and we’ll mention you on the next show!
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News discussed:
Early signs look like congestion pricing is reducing traffic in Manhattan
Trump sentenced to “unconditional discharge”
Dockworkers union has a tentative deal
FIRE to defend pollster in Trump lawsuit over outlier election poll
Some accounts criticized H1B visas and Elon retaliated by removing their verification
At least 24 people killed in LA fires
Over 12,000 homes and businesses burned
Newsome executive order waives CEQA and Coastal Act requirements for rebuilding
There will be no post-blitz boom
Mayor of LA ensures very little rebuilding will happen
The state of California got 6 month's advance warning from the best risk-assessment professionals
Every time an insurance company wants to raise rates for automobiles or homes, they have to have a public hearing and an elected insurance commissioner has to approve.
1600 policies cancelled in the Palisades over the summer (major devastation area).
FAIR testified it only had about $385 million, LA fires could have up to $24B of exposure
Newsome bans insurance companies from not renewing policies
Biden blocked sale of US Steel to Nippon Steel
Blinken, Yellen, and many other advisors against the block
Nippon Steel and US Steel filing suit to challenge
Federal judge found that requiring teachers to use preferred pronouns violates 1A
Also struck down the Biden administration’s unconstitutional Title IX rules
Trudeau is donezo
CFPB banned medical debt from lowering credit scores
Meta going based for Trump years
Fired chief diversity officer, ended diversity goals, stopped prioritizing minority-owned businesses
Removed tampons from mens bathrooms
The Sadam Statues are falling - Hanania
Pretty good Nate Silver piece on this
Tik Tok is probably going to shut down on January 19th
News You Can Ignore
“Grooming Gangs”?. (counter: Free Press?)
Elon Musk bought his Path of Exile account and his ranking in Diablo 4 is out of under 1000 players (Trace called it)
Happy News!
Amazon moving forward with WarHammer 40K series starring and lead by Henry Cavil.
WarHammer is For Romantics
US govt funding bird flu vaccine research and stocking up on vaccines
The Bukele Administration has turned the country from the most murderous in Latin America to the safest
Weather nerds found out where the water went during California’s drought!
Minnesota Summer Camp for HIV-Positive Kids Closes Down–Because There Aren’t Any More
Scientists drilled a 1.2M year old ice core out of Antarctica
Troop Deployment
Eneasz - I have just released a short story collection titled Dear Grom
Got something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at [email protected]. Say something smart and we’ll mention you on the next show!
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News discussed:
Biden commuted sentences of 37/40 federal death row inmates
Jimmy Carter died
ABC New settled Trump defamation case for $15 million
Seems like a payoff (though Politico writer disagrees)
Trump sues Des Moines Register, pollster for ‘election interference’
Teamsters union hit Amazon with a strike during christmas peak season because they hate joy and jesus
Iran is shutting down.
Half of Iran’s industrial capacity halted.
Big ol’ spat over H1B Visas, including Musk saying he will go to war over it and telling people to f**k themselves in the face.
various proposed reforms
Porn will be blocked in 13 states
Republican Rep. Kay Granger moved to an assisted-living facility months ago and stopped casting votes
Russia shot down Santa, also an Azerbaijani passenger plane.
The USS Gettysburg shot down an F-16. The pilot was recovered safely.
Happy News!
Gene-edited pig kidney transplanted into human
Parker Solar Probe survives, sends back data
Magnus Carlsen quits tournament over jeans
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Intro/outro music: On Sale by Golden Duck Orchestra
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News discussed:
Daniel Penny acquitted
Also, possible shenanigans by the judge???
UnitedHealthcare CEO gunned down
Eventually found at McDonalds with the murder weapon, fakeIDs, and a handwritten confession
Shooter posted on reddit raving about how the back surgery he got completely freed him from pain
CEO helped keep thousands of hospitals and healthcare providers open during the pandemic
This was elf-on-hobbit violence (Scott Greer)
Best article on tpot so far
Unpopular South Korean president declared martial law
MP’s stormed parliament building, broke door and windows, and got 192/300 inside
chief of the Army Special Warfare Command defied an order from then Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun to drag out lawmakers
Ex-defense minister tries to kill himself after arrest.
President impeached
DC is suing Amazon for shipping too slow to black zip codes
TERF Island denies trans kids lifesaving healthcare!
Boeing guilty plea in plane crash rejected by judge due to concerns over wokeism!
Syrian navy wiped out by Israel
Demilitarized buffer zone near Golan Heights taken by the IDF due to concerns that the revolutionary government won’t uphold existing agreements
Rojava off the top rope cripples a bunch of Turkish-backed military’s vehicles
Also, war crimes
Syria’s new leader might be kinda based?
The leader goes by the name Abu Muhammad al-Jolani
Says they will protect rights of women & minorities and renounce terrorism
Announced “free-market model to attract investment”
Hamas to allow Israeli forces to remain in Gaza as part of ceasefire
Speed Round
Mysterious drones sighted over military installations and infrastructure in NJ.
Wray announced he’ll resign
Trump came out against port automation
French Govt collapses
Romanian election annulled because too many people on tiktok
China bans exports of Gallium and Germanium to US
Anesthesiologists have insanely good PR
public outrage leads Anthem to reverse policy
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed a lawsuit accusing a New York doctor of prescribing abortion drugs to a Texas resident in violation of state law
In latest safety tests, o1 attempts to exfiltrate itself so it can continue its objective and lies about doing so but only in 2-5% of cases!
Happy News!
Google unveils new quantum chip
Troop Deployment
Eneasz - A friend wrote about her experience with her abortion, it’s harrowing and beautiful and I cried
Got something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at [email protected]. Say something smart and we’ll mention you on the next show!
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