Most brands forecast from gut feel and ROAS. CTC runs on four interlocked proprietary models that produce a daily P&L forecast with 3.1% accuracy across more than $3 billion in GMV. In Part 2 of the Canon series, Luke Austin breaks down each model, how they connect, and what a Profit Engineer actually does with them

Topics covered:

• Why a single ROAS number can't run a business

• The Spending Power Model — ACoNS curves and what spending power actually tells you

• The Retention Model — forecasting returning revenue cohort by cohort

• The Event Effect Model — how to get daily precision without breaking monthly targets

• The Creative Demand Model (teased — full breakdown in the creative strategy episode)

• How these four models wire together into a connected forecast system

• What R-squared below 0.6 signals about your retention data

• The three optimization points every brand should know: max CM, max revenue, max LTV CM

Key stat: 3.1% forecast accuracy across $3B+ in GMV managed — producing 30%+ revenue growth and 40%+ contribution margin growth.

Show Notes:

• Go to https://bit.ly/4aiEz79 to start your free migration with Omnisend today

• Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine

• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have