Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

Our team made more than 12,000 bid and budget adjustments across our portfolio during Cyber Five last year. For Black Friday 2026, we’re testing whether AI-assisted Meta media buying can make those decisions more consistent, timely, and aligned with business targets.

McCay Rasmussen, our Senior Paid Media Manager, joins Richard Gaffin to explain the system we’re building for all 120 hours from Black Friday through Cyber Monday. It compares performance with hourly revenue expectations, identifies gaps, and uses business context to determine what should happen next.

McCay illustrates the approach with our portfolio data suggesting roughly 27% of Black Friday revenue would arrive by 8am. That becomes a checkpoint for evaluating pacing, with a traffic-light framework helping distinguish a smaller shortfall from one that needs a larger response.

In this episode:

• How an authorized AI agent could adjust a campaign’s budget at 4am while the team is offline

• Why contribution margin, marketing efficiency ratio (MER), and incremental ROAS inform account decisions

• Setting limits on automated changes and alerts for human review

• Reviewing the timing and impact of last year’s bid and budget adjustments

• Preparing for changes in demand after Black Friday and Cyber Monday peaks

The practical starting point is your own forecast. McCay explains how historical hourly revenue and your promotional calendar can establish expectations before you define which decisions to automate.

Show Notes:

• Expand beyond your own site without building a whole new operation. Find out what’s possible at https://www.mirakl.com/ctc

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

SHOPPS started with Taylor Holiday’s own baseball card and a question: why couldn’t the founders and operators building ecommerce brands have something like that, too?

On this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook, Taylor and CMO, Grant Zanini, share how that idea became a physical trading card collection made for the ecommerce community.

The first SHOPPS collection features 100 leaders, 1,000 packs, and $50,000 in real prizes. None of the packs are for sale, so you have to win one.

They explain what it took to make cards worth collecting, why the featured players are helping distribute packs, and how the community can get involved. They also walk through the rare editions, 1/1 autograph cards with prizes attached, and sponsor Golden Tickets before ripping a pack themselves.

There are SHOPPS packs up for grabs in the comments. For a chance to win, tell us about the most valuable card in your collection or let us know if you own Taylor Holiday’s Bowman Chrome baseball card from his playing days.

See the collection and how to get a pack: https://www.shoppscards.com/

Thanks to Fulfil and Omnisend for helping bring SHOPPS to life!

-Fulfil: https://www.fulfil.io/

-Omnisend: https://your.omnisend.com/TaylorHoliday

Show Notes:

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Brandon Horoho, co-founder and CMO of Montana Knife Company (MKC), joins Taylor Holiday live at Commerce Roundtable in San Diego to break down a Black Friday strategy built around product drops. MKC creates five distinct shopping events across the week, giving customers reasons to buy full-price knives as new products and inventory become available.

Brandon explains how the team plans those releases around different customer interests, gives each launch its own email and SMS push, and schedules additional drops after Cyber Monday to keep selling through the Christmas shipping cutoff.

In this episode:

• Creating five Black Friday shopping events around culinary knives, pocket knives, and other product categories.

• Using product availability to generate excitement without running public discounts on knives.

• Why MKC sends each holiday event to its full audience instead of segmenting by customer interest.

• Planning BFCM launches around real manufacturing capacity and inventory constraints.

• Keeping products available for December shoppers after earlier years left the brand sold out before Christmas.

• Building demand through organic content and collaborations when paid advertising options are limited.

This episode is brought to you by:

- Trybe: https://bit.ly/4xXvD08

- Alia: https://bit.ly/4yuP8ON

- Bill: https://bit.ly/4e9JQQm

Show Notes:

• Q4 waits for no one. AppLovin is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to applovin.com/ctc to set up your first campaign

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

iOS 27 is raising questions about Meta ads tracking ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Tony Chopp and Steve Rekuc examine what changed, what CTC is seeing in conversion data, and which parts of your Shopify and Meta setup deserve a closer look.

CTC’s early analysis showed Meta conversion rates down roughly 15% year over year from October 8–18. That decline caught the team’s attention, but it does not establish Apple’s update as the cause. Tony and Steve explain how to investigate your conversion tracking before drawing that conclusion.

In this episode:

• What iOS 27’s browser-based tracking changes target and how they differ from iOS 14.5.

• How missing or incomplete conversion signals can affect attribution and ad targeting.

• What to review in your Meta Pixel, Conversions API (CAPI), and Shopify data-sharing settings.

• Comparing Shopify orders with purchase events in Meta Events Manager to investigate missing or duplicate events.

• Why event match quality matters and what changing iOS adoption means for the timing of incrementality tests.

Start with the last 30 days of Shopify purchases and the corresponding purchase events in Meta. Tony and Steve explain what discrepancies can reveal and where to investigate before holiday spending increases.

Show Notes:

• Go to https://www.universalads.com/middleman and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]
  

Profitable ecommerce growth gets harder when repeat purchases are limited. In his Commerce Roundtable San Diego keynote, Taylor Holiday examines how Skullcandy, The Normal Brand, and Spiral Bible are growing with low customer lifetime value (LTV) and a need to make customer acquisition profitable on the first order.

Taylor walks through changes to distribution, creative production costs, and campaign planning that helped these brands find room to scale. He also shares CTC’s research on ad performance to explain why the cost of finding successful creative matters.

In this episode:

• Skullcandy: TikTok Shop reached 4.3x its January level by August, while ecommerce reached 2.7x its January level. He explains how creator content can generate demand that converts across the website, Amazon, and retail.

• The Normal Brand: June ad spend doubled year over year while incremental ROAS held steady. He explains how commission-based creator production increased creative volume and reduced upfront production costs, making more testing financially viable.

• Spiral Bible: Coordinated marketing moments and creator production supported a 4.4x increase in ad spend from May to August, while platform ROAS improved from 1.63 to 1.91. He breaks down how the team aligned offers, creators, email, and website messaging.

• Creative testing economics: In CTC’s analysis of more than 1.3 million ads, the top 5% accounted for 73% of calculated contribution value before creative production costs. He explains why that distribution changes what brands can afford to pay for each new ad.

Show Notes:

• Expand beyond your own site without building a whole new operation. Find out what’s possible at https://www.mirakl.com/ctc

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Black Friday ad spend can generate a different incremental return than it does during a typical sales period. Luke Austin, President of Common Thread Collective, joins Richard Gaffin to explain how incrementality testing can help you decide where your holiday budget belongs.

They discuss what CTC has observed in promotional-period tests and why your usual return on ad spend (ROAS) target may need adjusting during Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM). The goal is to understand which sales your ads generate beyond what would have happened without them, then use that information to guide spending.

From there, Luke explores where brands could reinvest if the results support a change, including offers that evolve throughout the day and a larger role for creators in promoting them. He shares examples brands have already tried and outlines his proposal for coordinating offers across larger creator networks.

In this episode:

• Why Black Friday ad spend can be more or less incremental than spending during a typical sales period

• Using conversion lift studies and holdout tests to measure additional sales

• Applying incrementality findings to Meta and Google ad budgets and ROAS targets

• Giving shoppers new reasons to buy through flash sales and changing gifts with purchase

• Equipping creators with approved offers, inventory updates, and financial limits

• Giving creators room to develop their own messaging while preserving essential product requirements

Show Notes:

• Go to https://www.universalads.com/middleman and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Luke Austin, President of Common Thread Collective, joins Richard Gaffin to explain how to keep shoppers engaged after your Black Friday sale goes live.

They break down the Power 30, the holiday window that accounts for 55% of Q4 website revenue in the data discussed, and the offer decisions that deserve attention throughout it. Luke shares examples of brands using VIP hours, featured-product flash sales, and changing gifts with purchase to give customers fresh reasons to visit and buy.

The conversation covers how to prepare those moments, adapt to sales and inventory, and keep each offer easy for shoppers to understand.

In this episode:

• Building a holiday calendar around early access, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the shipping cutoff

• Why Luke prioritizes offer strategy alongside the media plan during peak shopping days

• What happened when one brand added its bestselling product line back into its holiday offer

• Planning fresh offers and messages within a single day

• Using inventory, margins, and minimum order values to shape gifts with purchase

• Keeping a consistent promotional theme as individual offers change

Show Notes:

• Q4 waits for no one. AppLovin is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to applovin.com/ctc to set up your first campaign

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]
  

Joy Sharma, who leads CTC's seven-figure service offering, joins Richard with one goal: give every 7-figure ecommerce brand a clear BFCM prep playbook before the season hits.

They walk through five areas in order from least to most impact.

• Housekeeping: Make sure your ad account billing limit is higher than your expected spend. Check your Commerce Manager, confirm your pixel is firing with 90%+ match rate, and clear any blockages before November.

• Offer: Your discount needs to be 20% or higher. Anything below that doesn't register. Simplify it — no tiered structures, no math for the customer. If your BFCM customers have weak LTV, build bundles around AOV instead of chasing subscriptions. And have something for your whales — Joy has sold $1,000 bundles for brands with $50 products. People don't realize how rich their best customers are.

• Email and SMS: Run at least three emails a week during the pre-Black Friday period. One email a day during Black Friday week. Up to three emails on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Immediately after Cyber Monday, run a two-day extension. Then shift to a free shipping cutoff sale. Most brands stop on Cyber Monday. That last window has a lot of revenue left in it. Send on your peak hours — use your historical data to find them.

• Landing page: The homepage is the hero. Run your ads there. Add a countdown timer, a sticky bar, slashed prices in a different color, and at least three product blocks (bestsellers, highest AOV, highest margin). Build a whale bundle. Turn off your evergreen first-time-buyer pop-ups.

• Creative (highest impact): CTC's research across hundreds of brands found that BFCM-specific ads drive only 30% of total Meta spend during the holiday period. Evergreen carries 70%. Don't sacrifice October ad production to make more November ads — October ads spend 50% more over Q4. But nobody makes enough Black Friday ads. One brand went from $5K a day to $55K a day by making 1,500 ads. Creative hierarchy: frames first, then catalogs with sale creative, then statics with offers overlaid, then video remixes of top performers, then new creator content if you have capacity.

BLACK FRIDAY AD RESEARCH: https://commonthreadco-global.com/bfcm

Show Notes:

• Go to https://www.universalads.com/middleman and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

By the time Black Friday arrives, Skullcandy wants customers ready to buy.

Evin Catlett, Skullcandy’s Global VP of Ecommerce and Growth Marketing, joins Taylor Holiday live at Commerce Roundtable in San Diego to explain how the brand uses TikTok Shop and creator content to build demand ahead of its holiday promotions. She shares what helped TikTok Shop gain traction after a slow start and how her team selects products for creator campaigns that support sales across Skullcandy’s website, Amazon, and retail stores.

In this episode:

• Building a digital growth strategy inside a brand with extensive retail distribution

• Why Skullcandy kept investing in TikTok Shop after a slow launch

• The role of creator content in generating demand across sales channels

• Coordinating Black Friday offers across DTC, Amazon, and retail

• Evin’s approach to investing before the sale so customers are ready to purchase

• Giving shoppers reasons to buy directly through loyalty benefits and exclusive products

• Planning for holiday sales through Christmas and the end of the year

Key takeaway: Evin reports seeing retail sales of specific products move within weeks of creator campaigns. Measuring the full impact across channels remains a work in progress.

This episode is brought to you by:

- Trybe: https://bit.ly/4xXvD08

- Alia: https://bit.ly/4yuP8ON

- Bill: https://bit.ly/4e9JQQm

Show Notes:

• Go to http://outersignal.com/thread to get 50% off your first two months

• Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com

• Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io

• Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact

• Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Justin Palmer, Founder & CEO of Home Life Brands, joins Taylor Holiday live at Commerce Roundtable in San Diego to discuss Black Friday customer retention and turning holiday shoppers into customers who stay.After 12 years in pet ecommerce, the company behind iHeartDogs and The Hero Company prioritizes acquiring customers in September and October, when they’re more likely to buy again during the holidays. Justin explains how member discounts, early product access, and daily inventory planning shape the brand’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday strategy.For DTC brands preparing for BFCM 2026, Justin shares an approach to driving repeat purchases and building membership revenue around products customers don’t need every month. Charitable experiences and personal impact updates give members an ongoing reason to engage beyond the initial discount.In this episode:- Why September and October acquisitions tend to return during the holidays, while November and December buyers are more often one-time gift shoppers- Finding the intersection of three customer interests to develop more specific products and ad creative- Building membership revenue around products with limited natural repeat purchase frequency- Giving members early access and discounted pricing before Black Friday- Testing product concepts with existing customers and cold audiences before ordering inventory- Using daily inventory projections to adjust pricing and ad spend ahead of the shipping cutoff- Giving iHeartDogs members a reason to stay through meal donations, monthly rescue flights, and personal impact dashboards- Producing AI ad creative at scale when predicting winners is increasingly difficult- Building toward automated offers, from a discount idea to a landing page and published ad creative- Why Meta remains the primary acquisition channel, and where TikTok Shop, Amazon, and AppLovin fit- Moving media buyer compensation toward contribution margin rather than last-click revenue aloneKey stat: Justin says memberships account for roughly 25% of the business’s revenue, helping provide stability outside the holiday season.Community impact: The Hero Company has also funded more than $2 million in donations to organizations that match veterans with service dogs.This episode is brought to you by:- Trybe: https://bit.ly/4xXvD08- Alia: https://bit.ly/4yuP8ON- Bill: https://bit.ly/4e9JQQmShow Notes: Go to ⁠https://www.universalads.com/middleman ⁠and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.- Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com- Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io- Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact- Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]