All eyes in Washington are turned east, as Russia claims it’s open to a diplomatic solution but could still invade Ukraine any day. The Biden administration is preparing for the worst — practicing numerous response scenarios, according to WaPo — and moving its limited Kyiv embassy presence west in case of an invasion.

And there was a time when he was considered the model for Democrats looking to flip red seats blue: a former Marine who ran on a centrist platform and won a district Donald Trump carried by 20 points. Today, our Philly-based Pennsylvania politics guru Holly Otterbein spotlights Rep. Conor Lamb's struggle to catch fire with the Democratic base in the Pennsylvania Senate primary, one of the party’s best pickup opportunities this fall.

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

A week ago, we laid out the thinking of some top Democratic strategists who are suddenly imagining a scenario in which the party defies history and holds Congress in the midterms. Over the past few days, we checked in with an array of Republican operatives about whether they think the GOP could actually blow this. 

Even after the RNC’s “legitimate political discourse” debacle two weekends ago, the answer almost across the board was an adamant “no.”

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The first clips of President Joe Biden's sitdown interview with NBC’s Lester Holt were released Thursday night (the full video will air on Sunday’s Super Bowl pregame show).

Biden announced that his shortlist of potential nominees to replace Justice Stephen Breyer is down to four. Biden: “I’ve taken about four people and done the deep dive on them — meaning thorough background checks, and to see if there’s anything in the background that would make them not qualified.” Also: “​​I think whomever I pick will get a vote from the Republican side for the following reason: I’m not looking to make an ideological choice here.” 

And WaPo’s Seung Min Kim has a look at the status of Biden’s SCOTUS selection process. 

Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: The Gen X activists upending Democratic politics

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s been one of the greatest sources of tension between House Republicans and Democrats for a year now: a chamber-wide mandate requiring lawmakers to mask up before they vote — and steep fines if they refuse. 

But now some House Democrats are following the lead of Democratic governors, calling for an end to mask mandates — even as their party imposes one in the House chamber.

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Across the country, top Democratic officials are relaxing mask mandates as Omicron recedes and concern rises about how masking is affecting schoolchildren. Meanwhile, Republicans have seized on the issue to attack Democrats as mask fundamentalists.

The shift among Democrats accelerated Monday, when a bipartisan group of governors meeting with President Joe Biden in Washington told him they wanted a “return to a greater state of normality” and to “move beyond the pandemic.”

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The fallout from the RNC’s weekend censure of Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) spread to Capitol Hill on Monday: Hill Republicans returned to town and lit into Chair Ronna McDaniel. Senate Republicans went on the record to say that looking back to 2020 is a losing strategy that won’t help the party flip both chambers of Congress. 

And they’re furious that the RNC would dub the activities of Jan. 6 “legitimate political discourse.”

And less than 24 hours after our colleague Alex Thompson reported that an internal White House investigation found that top White House science adviser Eric Lander bullied and mistreated his subordinates, Lander resigned.

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The most likely November election scenario is that Republicans win the House and Senate. On average since World War II, the president’s party loses 26 House seats and four Senate seats in a midterm election. 

The traditional indicators still point toward a typical midterm for Biden: low presidential approval rating (42%), a Republican advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (44%-42%), and more than twice as many Democrats retiring from the House as Republicans (29-13).

But Democrats are beginning to whisper about something that sounds laughable to many observers: Maybe they can win the midterms.

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

If you work on Capitol Hill, you’ve probably heard about “Dear White Staffers.” It’s an Instagram account that started as a place where aides of color on the Hill — a place dominated by white lawmakers and staff — could express their frustrations. But it’s expanded beyond that to become a go-to hub where anonymous staffers name and shame bad bosses and colleagues, and complain about absurdly long workdays, gender discrimination allegations, salaries so low they rely on food stamps to eat, generally toxic workplace behavior and an endemic lack of diversity. 

Playbook Deep Dive: Why Stephanie Cutter says Dems need a new SCOTUS strategy

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — via AP’s Ghaith Alsayed, Lolita Baldor and Bassem Mroue: “U.S. special forces carried out what the Pentagon said was a large-scale counterterrorism raid in northwestern Syria early Thursday.”

President Joe Biden travels to New York City today for a pair of events on crime policy with Mayor Eric Adams. Two years ago, if Democrats knew their next president would be meeting with an ex-cop mayor of New York at the NYPD’s Manhattan headquarters to discuss “historic levels of funding for cities and states to put more cops on the beat,” it would have been a big surprise.

Low levels of crime combined with outrage over white police officers abusing and killing unarmed Black Americans sparked a fierce backlash against cops, especially among progressives, and birthed the “defund the police” movement, which was embraced by a surprisingly wide spectrum of Democrats.

What happened to make it safe for Biden to reorient the Democratic Party’s positioning on crime?

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Republicans have been all over the map lately in their Supreme Court messaging. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) called President Joe Biden's vow to only consider Black women for the vacancy “affirmative action.” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Biden doing so during the campaign was “clumsy” and risked further politicizing perceptions of the high court. And Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) welcomed Biden’s bid to diversify the Supreme Court, saying “it’s about time” it looked more like America.

So what gives?

Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.