The Playbook Podcast

The week's top three storylines to watch:

1. The Jan. 6 committee’s primetime (possible) finale: The panel will hold its eighth hearing Thursday night, using an 8 p.m. slot to explore what Trump did during the 187 minutes before he told his supporters rioting at the Capitol to go home.

Will this actually be the committee’s final hearing? 

2. Reconciliation in the Senate: On Thursday, the Senate parliamentarian is expected to have so-called Byrd bath arguments on Democrats’ plan to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

3. The CHIPS/USICA showdown: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is hoping to tee up a floor vote as soon as Tuesday “to begin the process to move forward a limited competition bill that would include — at a minimum — the emergency funding for CHIPS,” per Schumer’s office.

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Late Thursday night, Sen. Joe Manchin effectively killed any chance of major climate-related provisions making their way into Democrats’ reconciliation package. The West Virginian told party leaders that “he would not support an economic package that contains new spending on climate change or includes new tax increases targeting wealthy Americans or corporations,” WaPo’s Tony Romm and Jeff Stein were first to report, “marking a massive setback for party lawmakers who had hoped to advance a central element of their agenda before the midterm elections this fall.”

What else he said: “Manchin told Democratic leaders he was open to changing federal laws that might lower prescription drugs costs for seniors… And the West Virginia moderate expressed support … for extended subsidies that will help keep health insurance costs down for millions of Americans for the next two years…”

Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: LA wants to recall its most progressive prosecutor. Inside the DA’s hostile office.

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Inflation hit a 41-year high on Tuesday, as the consumer price index accelerated to 9.1% in June. More from WSJ

That, in turn, affects what might be Biden’s last, best shot at a deal on reconciliation. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said the new numbers make him “more cautious than I’ve ever been” in reconciliation talks, he told reporters. “Everything needs to be scrubbed, anything that can be inflationary.”

AP’s Alan Fram: “It was unclear what impact Manchin’s comments would have on his closed-door talks with Schumer, which have shown progress lately. But they suggested he believed the day’s inflation report strengthened his leverage in that bargaining and, beyond that, in winning enough Democratic votes to push any agreement through the tightly divided Congress.” 

Which brings us to an emerging source of anxiety for Dems in negotiations: Taxes. Democrats have long campaigned on raising tax rates on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations — and Manchin himself wants to use reconciliation to revisit the issue in the context of deficit reduction. But now, Dems are agonizing over the potential political pitfalls that come with raising taxes in an election year, as Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris write this morning.

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Clip of the day — CNN’s coverage of Tuesday’s Jan. 6 committee hearing gave way to one of the more surreal exchanges we’ve seen on cable news, as Jake Tapper and former national security adviser John Bolton discussed some Jan. 6 participants’ attempts to overthrow the government:

Tapper: “One doesn’t have to be brilliant to attempt a coup.”

Bolton: “I disagree with that. As somebody who has helped plan coups d’etat — not here, but other places — it takes a lot of work.”

About that hearing — Tuesday’s hearing was cut into two different parts: Donald Trump's call to action, and his supporters’ response. 

Pieced together, they amount to this: The members of the Jan. 6 panel “are laying out an unmistakable map to a potential criminal case against the former president,” as Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu write.

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Today at 1 p.m. Eastern, the House Jan. 6 committee “plans to make its most complex case yet,” write Nicholas Wu and Kyle Cheney: “that Donald Trump's words and actions influenced extremists and brought them to the steps of the Capitol.”

Central to that case is Trump’s tweet on Dec. 19, 2020: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” 

Rep. Stephanie Murphy's (D-Fla.) described that tweet as a “clarion call” to members of the far-right Proud Boys and Oath Keepers. “We’ll show you how they began to organize around that date,” she said in an interview. Doing so, Nick and Kyle write, “will require investigators to delve into the sordid world of internet extremism and specifically lay out how Trump’s words rippled through its corners.” 

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Breaking — Kyle Cheney: “Former President Donald Trump’s attorney Justin Clark interviewed with federal investigators two weeks ago, the Justice Department revealed in a court filing early Monday morning, a significant development that could reverberate in multiple investigations facing Trump’s inner circle.”

Siren for House Dems — “House GOP marches into deeper blue terrain as Dem prospects fade,” by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris.

Siren for Senate Repubs — “Candidate challenges, primary scars have GOP worried about Senate chances,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Colby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey.

Siren for Biden — “Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
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Breaking Overnight — Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot and killed during a campaign speech Friday in western Japan. He was 67.

And, Chuck Schumer made a couple of new moves in his effort to advance two pieces of legislation tangled in political knots.

Recall that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell recently tweeted, “There will be no bipartisan USICA as long as Democrats are pursuing a partisan reconciliation bill.”

USICA, the United States Innovation and Competition Act, is the industrial policy legislation that would shower the semiconductor industry with $52 billion of incentives to ramp up chip-making in America. China hawks like the bill because it makes the U.S. less reliant on Chinese imports. The Biden administration hails it as a policy that will strengthen the supply chain, boost domestic manufacturing, and “help us outcompete China.”

The new reconciliation bill being negotiated by Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who tanked the last one in December, has been inching along.

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Last year, the White House convened a bipartisan commission of legal experts and academics to study the Supreme Court and make recommendations on whether (and how) to reform it.

The resulting recommendations were fairly moderate in scope, focusing on matters of transparency and ethics. And in the eyes of some progressives agitating for major changes to the judiciary, one big recommendation was noticeably absent: court packing. 

Now, a growing number of critics on the left say that President JOE BIDEN, who remains opposed to adding seats to the court, is — sound familiar? — failing to meet the moment and respond with the urgency it demands. (Just published: Playbook's Eugene Daniels’ new story on this topic)

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Is President Joe Biden meeting the moment?

That’s the question driving the political zeitgeist as some of the loudest members of the Democratic Party vent their frustrations to major news outlets.

The gist of their complaints: Biden (and Democrats) need a vibe shift — fast. They want the president to reflect their anger and angst. They want him to project strength and that he has a plan for meaningful action. They want him to pick fights at the right time with the right opponents, messaging on themes that get reinforced time and again. 

And they feel all of this is missing from the White House right now.

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First in Playbook — Playbook has obtained a trailer for Alex Holder's “Unprecedented,” the British filmmaker’s upcoming Discovery+ docuseries about the Trump family.

The two-minute-plus trailer, which you can watch here, was included among the hours of footage that Holder turned over to the House Jan. 6 committee under subpoena. (Holder gave testimony to the committee behind closed doors on June 23.)

The new video highlights Holder’s unique access to the former president and his family, and includes unseen footage of Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, each of whom is shown in outtakes from their sitdown interviews.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.