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This week, the bill that launched a whole lot of Joe Manchin Sunday show hits will be front and center as Democrats get ready to defend the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” (aka the reconciliation bill) as it is parsed by the Senate parliamentarian and gets teed up for a floor vote. But there are still a couple of important hurdles left to clear.

And last week, Senate Republicans blocked the passage of the PACT Act, which would expand health care access to veterans exposed to burn pits. Their opposition has spurred swift and widespread backlash.

There are a number of significant races being decided this week — including some marquee primaries for Senate and House. Politico's Natalie Allison explains what you should be paying attention to in Arizona and Missouri. 

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

 It’s Day 2 of the Manchin-Schumer deal that vastly expanded Biden’s shrunken legislative ambitions, boosted the morale of Democrats in difficult races and infuriated Congressional Republicans. 

The White House is ending a week they had long been dreading because of the string of bad economic data they (correctly) anticipated, on a surprisingly high note.

Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Legalizing the trip: One ‘shroom advocate’s playbook

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Last summer, Sen. Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer signed a one-page agreement outlining the West Virginia Democrat’s red lines for a reconciliation bill.

The date on that agreement? July 28, 2021.

Today is July 28, 2022.

One year later to the day, we’ve finally reached the moment many thought would never come: A Manchin-approved reconciliation bill — one he and Schumer brokered in secret after many thought any hope of a sweeping deal was dead — is on the Senate’s doorstep, and it includes provisions for climate change, tax hikes on corporations and health care subsidies.

When Donald Trump arrived in Washington five-plus years ago and delivered his inaugural address, he spoke of “American carnage” and used dark language (“rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones,” “disrepair and decay,” etc.) in previewing his first term as president.

But that vision was positively sunny compared to the dark-as-Vantablack outlook he shared Tuesday at the America First Agenda Summit — the clearest articulation yet of his likely 2024 message.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

All eyes will be on a pair of speeches today in Washington, one by the former president and one by the former vice president. 

Mike Pence, whose scheduled speech yesterday at Heritage was scrapped due to travel issues, speaks at 9 a.m. at Young America's Foundation's National Conservative Student Conference. Stream it via YouTube

Donald Trump speaks at 3:00 p.m. at the America First Agenda Summit. Stream it via C-SPAN

Because this is Trump world, not only is there the already much-discussed drama of the Trump/Pence speech-off, but there’s new drama over Trump’s choice of venue.

Former key Trump aide Peter Navarro is publicly asking Trump not to go forward with the event because he believes that the America First Policy Institute, which is hosting the summit, is insufficiently devoted to Trumpism — or at least what Navarro believes Trumpism to be in a piece headlined “Trump’s ‘Think Tank’ Prepares to Betray Him” for the MAGA-aligned online outlet American Greatness.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

If there’s one thing the White House, economists and basically everyone who thinks about money can agree on, it’s that this is going to be a big week for economic news. 

— On Tuesday, we get new consumer confidence numbers, a measure which has fallen for two consecutive months. Last month’s report showed the Consumer Confidence Index at its lowest level since February 2021 and the Expectations Index — “consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions,” per the Conference Board — at its lowest level since 2013.

— On Wednesday, the Fed will meet and make a decision on just how much to raise interest rates. After the most recent inflation numbers, most observers expect a hike of .75 percentage points. That would be the fourth rate increase this year.

— On Thursday, the GDP numbers for the second quarter will drop, and economists expect they’ll show a decline of 1% to 2%. It would be the second straight quarter of decline — which is often seen as signaling a recession. 

And Playbook's Eugene Daniels chats with POLITICO White House Bureau Chief Jonathan Lemire about his newest book, "The Big Lie."

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

A year and a half later, and we are still learning new things about January 6 — and almost all of the revelations strengthen the case that the January 6 committee has been building about Donald Trump's (perhaps criminal) culpability that day. Merrick Garland  has a lot to think about after last night.

Five moments will be etched in our minds from last night’s gripping primetime presentation...

Listen to this week’s Playbook Deep Dive:  He was right about inflation. Biden wasn’t. Larry Summers on what’s coming next,

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

President Joe Biden travels to Wilkes-Barre, Pa., this afternoon to talk about crime, and the White House is announcing a new “Safer America Plan” that details how Biden would spend a previous congressional request for $37 billion to “support law enforcement and crime prevention.” 

And the eighth public hearing of the Jan. 6 committee, though likely not the last, begins tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern. It’s expected to go on for about two hours and will focus on what Donald Trump did — or refused to do — for 187 minutes at the White House after his speech at the Ellipse and before he finally asked rioters to leave the Capitol.

“The story we’re going to tell,” a committee aide said, “is that in that time, President Trump refused to act to defend the Capitol as a violent mob stormed” it.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

About Last Night — “Trump wins proxy war with Hogan in Maryland primary — boosted by Democrats,” by Zach Montellaro

In the Republican primary: Dan Cox, a state delegate “who has full-throatedly embraced [Donald] Trump's repeated falsehoods about fraud in the 2020 election, scored the former president a win in his fight with [Gov. Larry] Hogan,” defeating the Hogan-endorsed Kelly Schulz in the gubernatorial primary.

In the Democratic primary: With mail ballots yet to be counted (Maryland state law prevents election officials from counting them until Thursday), it’s too early to call. As of this morning, author Wes Moore led the field, with former DNC Chair and Labor Secretary Tom Perez and state Comptroller ​​Peter Pranchot in striking distance. 

Full results: Maryland statewide and Maryland congressional districts

The View from Aspen — The place to be this week to really understand where the country is headed is 1,800 miles away from Washington: Aspen, Colorado, where Biden’s top national security officials — including his CIA director, national security adviser, and top officials from DOJ and Treasury — are gathering with a small cohort of journalists over the next four days for rare on-the-record sessions at the Aspen Security Forum. The full agenda can be found here.

We asked Alex, author of POLITICO’s “National Security Daily” newsletter, to weigh in with the three big things he’ll be watching for this week.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Just one state holds its primaries today: Maryland. And it doesn’t lack for drama.

In the gubernatorial Democratic primary, there’s a “total lack of clarity about who will be representing the party in November, after a lengthy primary distinguished by the failure of any candidate to break away from a nine-person field,” as our colleagues Brakkton Booker and Zach Montellaro write.

The Republican primary is a proxy battle between moderate term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan and former President Donald Trump, who is eager to embarrass Hogan, his longtime critic.

But here's what you should really watch — Maryland offers the latest example of a strategy that Dems have employed throughout the country: meddling in GOP primaries to get the general-election opponent they’d prefer, often boosting candidates further to the right who are aligned with Trump.

Playbook’s video series “The Midterm View:"  Dems meddle in GOP primaries

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.