The trajectory of the war in Ukraine hinges on the outcome of the widely anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive. Recent events spell trouble for Russia as Pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters launched attacks on Russian soil in Belgorod this week and the United States promised to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. With battlefield developments shifting daily, the future of the war in Ukraine remains uncertain. To discuss how all of this impacts the Ukrainian war effort, we are pleased to welcome Gustav Gressel to the podcast.
Gustav Gressel is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. His topics of focus include Russia, Eastern Europe, and defense policy.

The Trajectory of the War in Ukraine

Small bites on Transatlantic Security, NATO, the EU, Russia, and all things Europe. Hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend at the Center for a New American Security.

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On April 25th, French President Emmanuel Macron gave a nearly two-hour-long speech at the Sorbonne that outlined his vision for Europe. In the context of major challenges such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, intensifying economic pressures, and more, Macron warned that “Europe today is mortal” and that “it can die” if Europeans fail to take united and decisive action. This speech came at a time when Europe is gearing up for multiple major events in the coming months, including both the European Parliament elections in June and the 75th anniversary NATO summit in July. Looking ahead to these milestones, what are the most significant challenges and opportunities facing Europe in the years to come? To help us take stock of the present and anticipate the future, Constanze Stelzenmüller and Nathalie Tocci join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.  
Constanze Stelzenmüller is the director of the Center on the United States and Europe and the inaugural holder of the Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and trans-Atlantic Relations at the Brookings Institution. 
Nathalie Tocci is the director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs. In her previous capacity as Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, she wrote and worked on the implementation of the European Global Strategy.

The Future of Europe with Constanze Stelzenmüller and Nathalie Tocci

While the world’s attention has been focused on Russia’s military operation in Ukraine over the past two years, Moscow has continued its attempts to use other, nonmilitary tools to pursue its aggressive foreign policy objectives. Western democracies have been an important target of Russian malign influence. Particularly as both the European Union and the United States gear up for key elections later this year, there is mounting evidence of the Kremlin’s efforts to elevate pro-Russian talking points, politicians, and political parties. What lies behind these attempts to undermine Western democracy, and how concerned should we be about Russia’s chances of success? To discuss all of this and more, David Salvo and Brady Hills Join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.  
David Salvo is a senior fellow and managing director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund. An expert in Russian affairs, Salvo has been analyzing the Kremlin’s authoritarian toolkit to undermine democracy at home and abroad throughout his career. 
Brady Hills is a senior analysis and the Head of the Brussels Office of the International Republican Institute (IRI). As a member of IRI’s Beacon Project team, he focuses on countering hybrid threats to democracy, outreach to European policymakers, and discussing support for Ukraine, and EU and NATO enlargement.

Russian Influence on the Upcoming EU Elections

On Sunday, May 5th, Chinese President Xi Jinping will begin his first trip to Europe in five years. On this trip, Xi will make a high-profile two-day visit to France, where he is likely to encourage President Emmanuel Macron to continue pursuing an independent path from the United States regarding relations with Beijing. Xi will also make stops in Hungary and Serbia, which have cultivated close ties with China in recent years despite calls for de-risking from U.S. and other European leaders. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently returned from a visit to China, during which he met with Xi and other senior Chinese officials amidst the context of persistent simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing. What should we make of these two international trips, and what can they tell us about the current state of the relationships between China, Europe, and the United States? To discuss all of this and more, Noah Barkin and Bonnie Glaser join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.   
Noah Barkin is a Senior Advisor with Rhodium Group's China practice, focusing on Europe-China relations and transatlantic China policy. 
Bonnie Glaser is managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program.

Taking the Temperature of China’s Relationship with the United States and Europe

As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, the mood has become increasingly dark. While territorial changes continue to be minor, Russia’s slow but steady advances along the front lines could become large losses for Ukraine. This is especially likely if Kyiv is unable to overcome worsening shortages of both material and personnel. As military aid continues to be stalled in Congress, the head of U.S. European Command has warned that Ukraine may be in danger of losing the war unless it soon receives additional ammunition from Washington. Amidst all this apparent doom and gloom, how concerned should we be about the trajectory of the war, and what glimmers of hope may still lie on the horizon? To discuss all of this and more, Mike Kofman joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.

The State of the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman

Just under a year ago, Turkish President Erdogan won another five years in power in the Turkish presidential election. Last week, however, local election results in Turkey delivered a harsh blow to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Although the gap at the national level wasn’t huge, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won about 38 percent of the vote and Erdogan’s AKP garnered approximately 35 percent, in major Turkish cities such as Istanbul and Ankara the gulf was significant. Following disappointing results for the CHP during last year’s general election, this significant defeat, the largest since the AKP's founding in 2001, proved a surprise. To discuss how we should interpret these election results and their implications for Turkish democracy, Asli Aydintaşbaş and Steven Cook join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Steven A. Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of numerous books, including his most recent work, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, which is set to be released on June 3, 2024. 
Asli Aydintaşbaş is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, as well as a former Global Opinions columnist at The Washington Post and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The Trajectory of the War in Ukraine

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