The World Unpacked

The New Year is looking to be nothing short of busy as President Biden will begin his second year in office. From the ongoing crisis with Russia and Ukraine to focusing on U.S.-China relations, foreign policy is expected to be a big focus for the Biden administration. These foreign policy issues and several others could also play a crucial role in the 2022 midterm elections. So, what will this year bring for Biden’s foreign policy?

In the first episode of the New Year, POLITICO reporter and anchor of the National Security Daily newsletter Alex Ward joins Doug to unpack the major foreign policy issues Biden faces in the New Year. Plus, Alex hands out grades for Biden's first year in office. Be sure to subscribe to the National Security Daily newsletter for more national security and foreign policy reporting.  

1. George Perkovich and Karim Sadjadpour. What's at Stake in the Iran Nuclear Talks. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
2. Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza. Welcome to 2022. POLITICO Playbook.
3. Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey. Did 2021 expose America's limits? National Security Daily.

With an increased buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, the threat of a Russian invasion has alarmed the United States and its NATO allies. For years, Russia and Ukraine have clashed along the border, especially as Ukraine has shifted more toward the West instead of aligning itself with Russia. Last Tuesday, President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a video call where Biden sought to de-escalate tensions. If tensions continue to escalate, will Ukraine be facing a full-on invasion?  

In this episode, Ukrainian native and Tufts University Professor Oxana Shevel joins Doug to unpack the Russia-Ukraine border standoff.

1. Coffee or Die Magazine. Ukrainians Prepare for Russian Invasion [Video]. YouTube.

Since 2006, Mexico has been locked in a deadly war on drugs. As drug cartels grow increasingly emboldened with their attacks on civil society, the pressure is on Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to rein in what seems to be a forever war. Meanwhile, corruption penetrates all levels of Mexico’s government while the conflict is a significant push factor for thousands of Mexicans fleeing to the U.S. border. This comes amid recent talks between U.S. and Mexican officials to revamp their security cooperation to address these and other issues. 

In this episode, Beatriz Magaloni joins Doug to unpack Mexico’s war on drugs and how the violent conflict finds its way home to the United States.

1. Beatriz Magaloni. "Institutionalized Police Brutality: Torture, the Militarization of Security and the Reform of Inquisitorial Criminal Justice in Mexico." 
2. Beatriz Magaloni. "Living in Fear: The Dynamics of Extortion in Mexico’s Drug War."
3. Beatriz Magaloni. "The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico."
4. Beatriz Magaloni. "Presidential Approval and Public Security in Mexico’s War on Crime"

President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in the highly anticipated virtual summit earlier this week with the hopes of bringing down tensions between the two countries. Yet the two leaders came out of the virtual summit with no official joint statement or agreement on any big sticking points. So where does the U.S.-China bilateral relationship stand on Taiwan, trade, climate, and more? 

This week, Evan Feigenbaum joins Doug to unpack the Biden-Xi summit and where the U.S. and China go from here.

This week, over 30,000 participants are anticipated in Glasgow, Scotland to kick off COP26. The climate conference hosted by the United Nations is a critical moment for nations to address the fight against climate change in order to avoid catastrophic consequences. The expectations for the two-week conference are high as world leaders and delegates are expected to commit to ambitious climate goals that will prevent the global temperature from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

In this episode Olivia Lazard joins Doug to unpack key developments from the climate conference thus far and how the EU and United States can still take the lead on climate.

1. Olivia Lazard, "The Need for an EU Ecological Diplomacy," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
2. Olivia Lazard, "The EU's Deforestation Package: A Test for Taking the Green Deal Global," Strategic Europe

Last week, North Korea unveiled a variety of weapons during an exhibition which included their newest developed “hypersonic missile”, Hwasong-8. This recent exhibition was one of the biggest displays of North Korean weapons in the last couple of years, and the country’s leader, KimJong-un, made it clear that he will continue to build up their military forces. It comes at a time when the United States is pushing for North Korea to return to nuclear disarmament talks, but so far the country has rejected starting any negotiations. 

This week, Ankit Panda joins Doug to unpack the state of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and what it means for U.S. policy toward North Korea.

1. Ankit Panda, "North Korea's New 'Hypersonic Missile': Not A Game Changer Just Yet", 19FortyFive
2. Ankit Panda, "Why North Korea's New Cruise Missile Matters", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
3. Toby Dalton and Ankit Panda, "Lessons From the Iran Deal for Nuclear Negotiations With North Korea", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

From the recent announcement of China banning all crypto-related activities to El Salvador legalizing Bitcoin as its currency, cryptocurrency has been making headlines. The rapid growth of crypto has caused countries to reevaluate their approach to adopting digital currencies. Some have welcomed the push towards crypto while others are wary about its overall effect on the global financial system.  

This week, New York Times reporter Ephrat Livni joins Doug to unpack cryptocurrency and what this means for the global financial system.

1. Ephrat Livni and Amy Qin. (September 24, 2021). China Cracks Down Harder on Cryptocurrency With New Ban. The New York Times.
2. Ephrat Livni and Oscar Lopez. (September 7, 2021). El Salvador’s Adoption of Bitcoin Is Off to a Rocky Start. The New York Times.

On September 26, Germans will cast their votes in the federal election that will decide the next chancellor of Germany as Angela Merkel steps down from office. Whoever wins will have to contend with a host of challenges, from an emboldened Russia, to climate change, and keeping a fraught EU bloc together amid democratic backsliding on the continent. But perhaps more importantly, can anyone replace the steady handed Merkel who steered the European continent for the last nearly two decades?

Judy Dempsey from Carnegie Europe joins Doug to unpack the German elections and the future of Europe in the post Merkel era.

Judy is the editor in chief of  Strategic Europe  where you can get more insights and commentary on European foreign policy. 

1. Judy Dempsey, "Germany's Vote Should Set the Pace for Europe", Strategic Europe
2. Judy Dempsey, "Europe's Looming Unpredictable Autumn", Strategic Europe
3. Judy Dempsey, "The Europe Angela Merkel Leaves Behind", Strategic Europe
4. Yascha Mounk, "The World Won't Miss Angela Merkel", The Atlantic

Twenty years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the United States’ longest war has ended with the troop withdrawal in Afghanistan completed. Thus, a new chapter between the United States and a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has begun. It has also begun conversations around the current state and future of America’s foreign policy. 

This week, Stephen Wertheim joins Doug to unpack the state of America’s foreign policy and role in the world following the conclusion of the longest U.S. war. 

Stephen is the author of Tomorrow, the World: The Birth of U.S. Global Supremacy. Read the latest from Stephen:

End the Imperial Presidency 

The ever-ready answer for failures in Afghanistan: More war

Joe Biden's Perfect Foreign Policy Storm

The legacy of 9/11

As the United States was completing its troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban rapidly took control of Afghanistan last week. Thousands of Afghans are trying to escape the country as their futures and hopes are looking uncertain. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are left figuring out what comes next with the Taliban back in power. 

This week, a former senior adviser to the National Security Council of Afghanistan joins Doug to talk about the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban and what it means for Afghans.