The World Unpacked

President Trump has made it clear that he wants to reduce the U.S trade deficit with China. If he follows through on his campaign promises to impose tariffs, how would China react? Is a trade deficit with China necessarily a bad thing for the US? One of the most thought-provoking economists on China, Michael Pettis examines the trade relationship between Washington and Beijing, and explains how the Chinese growth model is facing unique challenges. Michael Pettis is a senior fellow in the Carnegie Asia Program based in Beijing. An expert on China’s economy, Pettis is professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. Pettis is also editor of China Financial Markets, which offers monthly insights into the financial and economic dynamics of China and the global economy. Learn more at ChinaFinancialMarkets.org.

How should Europe handle President Trump? There is more uncertainty in the transatlantic relationship now than at any time since the end of the cold war. And preoccupied by its internal issues, the EU has failed to find a coherent approach for dealing with Vladimir Putin on its eastern border. As Carnegie’s popular blog Strategic Europe celebrates its 5th anniversary, Tom Carver talked to its editor-in-chief Judy Dempsey about the future of European foreign policy. Dempsey is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and the author of the book The Merkel Phenomenon (Das Phänomen Merkel, Körber-Stiftung Edition, 2013). She worked for the International Herald Tribune from 2004 to 2011 as its Germany and East European Correspondent, and from 2011 to September 2013 as columnist. Dempsey was the diplomatic correspondent for the Financial Times in Brussels from 2001 onward, covering NATO and European Union enlargement.​

The global nuclear order is facing unprecedented challenges with Russia, North Korea and Iran all testing the limits of nuclear non-proliferation. The landmark Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty marks its 50th anniversary next year. Will it be able to survive in its present form? This month, as Carnegie brings together 800 experts for its nuclear policy conference in Washington, Tom Carver spoke with Carnegie’s James Acton and Toby Dalton about the nuclear nonproliferation agenda. James Acton is co-director of Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. A physicist by training, Acton was a winner of the competitive Carnegie Corporation of New York grant on New Technologies and the Nuclear Threat that funds his ongoing research into the escalation implications of advanced conventional weapons. Toby Dalton is co-director of Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his work addresses regional security challenges and the evolution of the global nuclear order. From 2002 to 2010, Dalton served in a variety of high-level positions at the U.S. Department of Energy, including senior policy adviser to the Office of Nonproliferation and International Security. He also established and led the department’s office at the U.S. embassy in Pakistan from 2008-2009.

Where is the Arab world heading? It’s been 5 years since the start of the Arab Awakening and in many ways, the region appears to be going backwards. Join Tom Carver and Carnegie’s Middle East team to discuss Carnegie’s new wide-ranging report, Arab Fractures: Citizens, States, and Social Contracts, which examines what has gone wrong in the relationship between the Arab people and their governments. You can continue the conversation on Twitter with #ArabFractures Marwan Muasher is vice president for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East. Muasher served as foreign minister (2002–2004) and deputy prime minister (2004–2005) of Jordan, and his career has spanned the areas of diplomacy, development, civil society, and communications. Michele Dunne is the director and a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on political and economic change in Arab countries, particularly Egypt, as well as U.S. policy in the Middle East. Perry Cammack is a fellow in Carnegie's Middle East Program in Washington, D.C., where he focuses on long-term regional trends and their implications for American foreign policy.

The U.S.-China relationship is pivotal to the world order. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized China during his campaign and since his inauguration. The director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Paul Haenle, discusses Trump’s direct assaults on the cornerstones of the U.S.-China relationship, assessing the administration’s confrontational approach to questions such as the One China policy, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and North Korea. He also addresses the pressures facing Chinese President Xi Jinping as he approaches the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and how conceptions of China’s role in the world are shifting within the country. Paul Haenle is the director of the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center based at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China. In addition to running the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center, Haenle is also an adjunct professor at Tsinghua, where he teaches undergraduate and graduate-level courses to Chinese and international students on international relations and global governance. Haenle served as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama prior to joining Carnegie.

In India, the world’s largest democracy, as many as a third of elected politicians are under criminal indictment. Carnegie Senior Fellow Milan Vaishnav discusses his groundbreaking new book, When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics, which takes readers deep into the marketplace for criminal politicians. Drawing on fieldwork from the campaign trail, large surveys, and unprecedented data on politicians’ criminal records, Vaishnav discusses his findings on the inner-workings of democracy’s underbelly, and how his work might illuminate the current U.S. political climate.

Carnegie Senior Fellow James L. Schoff discusses his research on U.S.-Japan relations and regional engagement, Japanese politics and security, and the private sector’s role in Japanese policymaking.

Carnegie Senior Fellow Sarah Chayes discusses her research on systemic corruption and its consequences for governance around the world, including within the United States.

As part of our series looking at what a Trump presidency could mean for the world, Carnegie Moscow Center Director Dmitri Trenin examines what Russia and Russian president Vladimir Putin may want from Trump's administration.

Donald Trump’s call with Taiwan’s leader suggests that the U.S.-China relationship might be about to change, a shift that would impact the balance of power throughout the region. As part of our series looking at what a Trump presidency could mean for the world, Carnegie Vice President for Studies for Asia Douglas H. Paal examines what countries in East Asia may want from Trump’s administration, and identifies potential sources of friction.