Top Traders Unplugged

Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market

00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt

03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history

07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market

12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability

17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset

24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries

28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?

32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born

39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds

44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying

48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income

49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity

55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve

57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problem

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break

02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds

05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends

07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?

14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies

17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets

20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far

23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?

31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?

36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy

40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling

44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading

52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following

55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same

01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification matters

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Matt on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged

01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed

05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s

11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?

15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?

18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?

21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust

26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise

31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news

33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium

37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances

42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world

48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China

52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen

58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar

01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust

06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency

10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity

12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update

16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds

19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer

21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk

25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process

29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate

31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following

38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?

43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following

51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets

58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity

01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 2020

01:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followers

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Marvin on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else

01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth

04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve

09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?

16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean

18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy

25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?

31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system

35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?

40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality

47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits

57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations

59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt

01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets

01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar

01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters

07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question

08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention

12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed

16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply

18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?

22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning

24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function

30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields

34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime

41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime

49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification

52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns

01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors

01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing

06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional

10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets

13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market

14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history

18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles

23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?

28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven

29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters

32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines

34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm

39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work

42:33 - Why investors have never had it better

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections

01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets

07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk

10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes

13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks

14:51 - August trend following performance

16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends

20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity

27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?

31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market

36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage

41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?

47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following

52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers

56:49 - The “podification” of trend following

59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles

01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative trading

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Mike on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing

04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world

07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed

12:09 The return of fiscal activism

15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital

19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy?

22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates

25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble

29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime

33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification

37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters

42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis

46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved

48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta

52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio

56:47 How AI could transform investment management

01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investors

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania

02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment

06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow

08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 2026

10:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing

14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience

17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance

22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape

24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs

29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage

32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control

37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered?

42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs

50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha

55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading

01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks

01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs

01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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