Top Traders Unplugged

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes

02:02 - Macro recap from Niels

12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy?

31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’?

40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer?

47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns 

50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance

58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves from their competitors

01:01:04 - Diversification versus concentration

01:05:07 - Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible
• Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades
• How to engage in related to your investment approach
• Over complicating a trading strategy
• Acceptable margin amounts
• Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:28 - Macro recap from Niels

03:53 - Weekly review of returns

11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber

14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure?  What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it?

29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods?

34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report?

41:14 - Q5; John: What is a normal amount of margin that CTAs use?

42:30 - Q6, Q7 & Q8; Babek: Should you trade all markets using the same approach? How do you deal with downside risks once a large profitable uptrend is established? Should position size be increased if the number of open trades is less than the maximum?

01:01:56 - Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes.

You can read some of Rob’s work here.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• Trend Following as a solution to rising inflation
• The major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing money
• Trend Following on ETFs
• Predicting future returns using current risk exposure
• Retail traders versus professional money managers

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fears
• How price action incorporates all narratives
• Trend Following on options
• The extra costs of short-term trading
• Single stocks versus index futures
• If Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following system
• Mark's '3 D's' of inflation

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:37 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

02:32 – Macro recap from Niels

06:19 – Weekly review of performance

16:53  – Q1; Omar: Why is Trend Following associated mostly to futures?

31:32  – Q2; Mohammed: How do I overcome a lack of patience and discipline?

35:33  – Q3; Abishek: How does Technical Analysis relate to Trend Following?

39:43 – Predicting market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements

56:26 – How price moves change narratives and not the other way around

01:00:16 – The ‘Three D’s’ of inflation

01:05:33 – When is the best time to invest in Trend Following?

01:11:29 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: The Half Life of Facts by Samuel Arbesman and The Premonition by Michael Lewis

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:29 - Macro recap from Niels

08:01 - Weekly review of returns and the narrative change around Bitcoin

19:01 - Q1; Omar: What books do you recommend for Trend Following educational material?

27:52 - Q2; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?

35:40 - Q3; Mark: Could Chesapeake and Dunn Capital trade as an ETF to allow more people exposure to their strategies?

44:22 - Q4; Vinicius: What are your thoughts about Trend Following on single stocks?

50:08 - Q5; Antonio: Should we be less diversified and more concentrated with our trades?

01:03:39 - Why having rules isn’t enough to justify a robust trading system

01:15:24 - Thoughts on measuring skew

01:19:05 - Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio
• The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy
• Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash
• The varying speeds of Trend Following
• Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy isn't risky
• Overcoming behavioural biases
• Managed futures as a great benefit to investor's portfolios
• The flight out of fixed income
• Why crypto investors could benefit from Trend Following
• Changing the narrative around Trend Following

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:59 - Macro recap from Niels

03:22 - Weekly review of returns

10:41 - What could Trend Following bring to the crypto space?

16:36 - How can CTAs change the narrative around investing so that they are included in the picture at all times, instead of just when investors are panicking?

24:50 - Q1; Leonie: What goals can I set as an independent Trend Following trader?

30:13 - Q2, Q3 & Q4; James: How do you size positions across different speeds of systems? How much in percentage terms should a retail investor allocate to Trend Following strategies? Can you recommend a CTA comparison website?

33:16 - Q5; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?

36:30 - Trend Following reframed for better understanding

48:04 - Trend Following misunderstood

59:48 - Why Trend Following on only a single asset class often leads to failure

01:04:17 - Economic and social similarities between today and the 1960s

01:07:37 - The fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio

01:16:54 - How managed futures can help portfolios

01:23:16 - Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer