Top Traders Unplugged

Today, we explore what it means to invest in a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). We discuss why geopolitical shocks... especially supply-driven ones... are creating persistent trends across markets, and why trend-following strategies are thriving despite strong equity performance. The conversation dives into how investors process information (or fail to), the limits of central bank responses to supply shocks, and why markets may not be fully pricing in current risks. Mark also shares new research comparing hedge fund strategies under different volatility regimes, highlighting why managed futures stand out as a robust diversifier. The episode closes with a forward-looking discussion on AI, replication strategies, and the growing role of narrative versus data in investment decision-making.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction: Preparing for the unpredictable

00:36 – Entering a VUCA world: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity

02:00 – “Uncharted territory” in markets and beyond

05:30 – Central banks, leadership changes, and policy uncertainty

07:16 – Oil markets, OPEC shifts, and geopolitical tension

10:16 – Trend-following performance update and market context

14:06 – Reverse engineering CTAs and the role of AI

18:42 – Replication strategies vs. true alpha

22:41 – Trend-following performance metrics (April update)

24:43 – Supply shocks and why they’re harder to manage

28:53 – Are markets underreacting to geopolitical risk?

31:53 – Information overload, ambiguity, and trend persistence

34:54 – Why more data doesn’t mean better decisions

38:34 – Government intervention vs. market-driven trends

40:30 – Pandemic policies and unintended inflation

43:00 – New research: hedge fund strategies vs. volatility regimes

47:16 – Why managed futures stand out as diversifiers

51:11 – Narrative vs. data in investment decisions

55:36 – AI, sentiment analysis, and the future of models

58:46 – Simplicity vs. complexity in strategy design

01:00:49 – Bundling vs. unbundling investment strategies

01:03:18 – Momentum crashes and new research directions

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In this episode Kevin Coldiron is joined by bestselling author Joe Studwell who speaks about his new book How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World’s Last Development Frontier. We discuss why many of our perceptions about Africa are wrong - why one big problem has been too few people, not too many and why the continent isn’t as resource-rich as we think. Joe talks us through some surprising success stories - like Rwanda’s emulation of Singapore and Botswana’s success in avoiding “the resource curse”. This is the time to begin researching and understanding the opportunities in a continent that has more land mass than the US, China and India combined and will eventually be home to the majority of the world’s young people.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 - Introduction to the episode and guest

02:04 - Why the book was written and initial motivation

05:50 - Outsider perspective and reactions in Africa

07:22 - The core idea: population density and development

08:22 - Why Africa’s growth lagged historically

14:23 - Population growth and changing economic potential

15:39 - Colonialism in Africa vs Asia

20:14 - Land, agriculture, and development differences

23:55 - Rise of private sector and food production

25:57 - Resources and the limits of extractive growth

29:56 - Botswana and managing resource wealth

36:21 - Rwanda’s development model and governance

44:41 - Ethnic dynamics and future stability

50:24 - China’s role and manufacturing potential

56:04 - Investing in Africa and long term outlook

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine a market environment where politics, geopolitics and liquidity are becoming harder to separate. Cem argues that recent market strength is not just a reaction to better news, but part of a broader effort to manage risk, support collateral values and prepare for deeper geopolitical stress. From rising military spending and the Strait of Hormuz to treasury demand, QIS growth, AI and the next inflation wave, this conversation is about what happens when markets stop being passive observers and become tools in a larger strategic contest.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:01 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

00:00:35 - Niels and Cem reconnect and set the stage

00:01:51 - Truth, narratives and the blurring of reality

00:04:15 - Fed independence, politics and credibility

00:07:45 - The rise of QIS and demand for alternative strategies

00:12:52 - Trend following update and current market performance

00:15:23 - Framing the disconnect between markets and reality

00:20:09 - Liquidity, market rallies and strategic positioning

00:25:08 - Are markets being actively managed

00:34:51 - The real geopolitical battle and the role of China

00:40:32 - What investors may be underpricing

00:52:55 - Why markets can rise despite growing risks

00:55:56 - Treasury demand, intervention and future policy paths

00:58:04 - Inflation, debt monetization and long term outlook

01:02:16 - AI, deflation and the political response

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting

00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion

00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance

00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics

00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion

00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege

00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation

00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences

00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens

00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s

00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law

00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses

00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets

01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto

01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop

04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing

10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension

13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles

17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results

20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown

25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed

27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers

31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing

43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction

52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities

01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies

01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain

01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career

03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure

06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge

08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time

14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets

17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants

20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior

24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis

32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies

39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge

40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading

51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume

56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises

03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones

04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences

06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape

10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs

12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions

16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026

21:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies

22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies

25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance

32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction

39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading

52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta

57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products

01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints

01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs

01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investing

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity markets offer a distinct source of diversification and trend. They explore how structural supply and demand imbalances create persistent price moves, why many financial markets behave as one during stress, and how capacity constraints shape portfolio construction. The conversation also examines how markets are selected, how execution differs from traditional CTAs, and why understanding who trades a market may matter more than any backtest.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the episode and guest

02:04 - Why focus only on commodity markets

03:59 - The myth of diversification through more markets

05:01 - Structural differences within commodity markets

06:22 - Why financial markets behave as one in crises

07:57 - Capacity constraints and portfolio construction

11:18 - Adding and removing markets from the portfolio

13:28 - How to identify truly alternative markets

16:40 - Trend quality vs trend quantity explained

19:11 - Structural drivers behind commodity trends

20:01 - Case study European carbon and trend persistence

26:59 - Execution as an edge in systematic trading

32:42 - Reducing trading costs through patience

40:09 - Why investors allocate to alternative commodity strategies

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performance to examine portfolio construction, from market selection and speed to the growing relevance of portable alpha. Along the way, they revisit periods of drawdown, investor behavior, and the role of liquidity in crisis environments, offering a grounded perspective on how systematic strategies respond when conditions change quickly.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Harry on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and episode framing

01:38 - Market backdrop and Q1 volatility

07:29 - Trend following performance through Q1

09:36 - Diversification vs equities and bonds

11:21 - Dispersion across managers explained

14:32 - Trend vs non trend strategies

18:40 - A month that tested every component of trend

21:17 - Optimal market mix and research insights

30:00 - Macro factors and what trend captures

35:57 - Portable alpha and cash efficiency

42:23 - Risks in portable alpha construction

49:04 - Drawdowns and investor behavior

53:37 - Why trend recovers after shocks

01:00:51 - Measuring alpha in macro strategies

01:06:51 - Geopolitics and future opportunities

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion

02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability

04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom

06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making

09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems

12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives

17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict

19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure

22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities

25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension

29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints

33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world

39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk

48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer