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- Best of TTU – The History of Trend FollowingThe concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman. Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book. I hope you enjoy reading this, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 and Episode 42.Examples of Trend Following from 800 Years of Historical DataKaty: I think if I go back, for just a second, this concept of Trend Following is something that has been passed on throughout the ages. I think we start our book by saying find a trend and follow it, is a common adage that has been passed on throughout the centuries. This is quite, sort of, one of the points that we begin the book with, is that people have been using and following the curve, following the crowd for as long as anybody ever has imagined. Essentially trend following is simply following a trend that you may see. If you look across history, this particular approach, if done the right way, can actually be very stable over time. That's what we see in the beginning of the book, is there's an 800 year analysis. Granted that any of these analysis are not empirically hardcore research, but they give us some perspective on, "wait a minute, is this something that I could have done throughout the ages?" I think if you take that, and you think about what trend following is about: trend following is about following something that looks like it's going up and cutting your losses when you think it's not. It's very simple. Granted the way that we do it today is much more sophisticated, and much more systematic and sophisticated, but the concept is really simple.Niels: Sure. I think that, in a sense, that's quite interesting to me because I think sometimes managers over complicate the message of trend following because they want to sound like that what they do is really sophisticated, but in reality it's not that hard.Katy: Definitely not. I think I spent a lot of my research time thinking about stop loss, and why do people use stopping rules, for example? There's a lot of behavioral reasons for this, and trend following is exactly the same. You create some systematic rules to help you control your behavior - to help you make decisions. So for something like stop loss, as an example, we use a stop loss because we know that we may not be able to get ourselves to stop the loss without making the decision a priority. Trend following strategies, and the concept of trend following is about creating a simple set of rules - a simple heuristic for how do you actually profit from moves - up or down? If they exist, how do you handle them? So when we started our book, actually, one of the interesting graphs... the first graph that we have is actually performance of the S&P 500 for the last twenty odd years, and then performance of trend following. If you just look at that graph, there clearly are trends. Long trends that exist in history and different markets. So if we have that approach, there may be some ways to develop heuristics to help us to handle the ups and the downs over time."What if I was the type of person that just said: if I see things that are going up in the last 12 months, I buy. If I see things are going down, I sell. Modern day Trend Following is much more complicated, but the concepts are the same."Niels: I want to try and stay with the theme of the history and trend following and just ask you how did you find evidence of trend following taking place going back so many years? We obviously, many of us remember the last five, ten, twenty years, but once you get past that and for most investors we're not in the markets fifty years ago, or a hundred years ago,11 min
- Best of TTU – The History of Trend FollowingThe concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman. Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book. I hope you enjoy reading this, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 and Episode 42.Examples of Trend Following from 800 Years of Historical DataKaty: I think if I go back, for just a second, this concept of Trend Following is something that has been passed on throughout the ages. I think we start our book by saying find a trend and follow it, is a common adage that has been passed on throughout the centuries. This is quite, sort of, one of the points that we begin the book with, is that people have been using and following the curve, following the crowd for as long as anybody ever has imagined. Essentially trend following is simply following a trend that you may see. If you look across history, this particular approach, if done the right way, can actually be very stable over time. That's what we see in the beginning of the book, is there's an 800 year analysis. Granted that any of these analysis are not empirically hardcore research, but they give us some perspective on, "wait a minute, is this something that I could have done throughout the ages?" I think if you take that, and you think about what trend following is about: trend following is about following something that looks like it's going up and cutting your losses when you think it's not. It's very simple. Granted the way that we do it today is much more sophisticated, and much more systematic and sophisticated, but the concept is really simple.Niels: Sure. I think that, in a sense, that's quite interesting to me because I think sometimes managers over complicate the message of trend following because they want to sound like that what they do is really sophisticated, but in reality it's not that hard.Katy: Definitely not. I think I spent a lot of my research time thinking about stop loss, and why do people use stopping rules, for example? There's a lot of behavioral reasons for this, and trend following is exactly the same. You create some systematic rules to help you control your behavior - to help you make decisions. So for something like stop loss, as an example, we use a stop loss because we know that we may not be able to get ourselves to stop the loss without making the decision a priority. Trend following strategies, and the concept of trend following is about creating a simple set of rules - a simple heuristic for how do you actually profit from moves - up or down? If they exist, how do you handle them? So when we started our book, actually, one of the interesting graphs... the first graph that we have is actually performance of the S&P 500 for the last twenty odd years, and then performance of trend following. If you just look at that graph, there clearly are trends. Long trends that exist in history and different markets. So if we have that approach, there may be some ways to develop heuristics to help us to handle the ups and the downs over time."What if I was the type of person that just said: if I see things that are going up in the last 12 months, I buy. If I see things are going down, I sell. Modern day Trend Following is much more complicated, but the concepts are the same."Niels: I want to try and stay with the theme of the history and trend following and just ask you how did you find evidence of trend following taking place going back so many years? We obviously, many of us remember the last five, ten, twenty years, but once you get past that and for most investors we're not in the markets fifty years ago, or a hundred years ago,11 min
- BO13: The History of Trend Following
The concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman. Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
11 min - 22 The Systematic Investor Series – February 11th, 2019Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to [email protected]Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibertFeel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.Episode Summary00:00 - Intro01:15 - Weekly review06:10 - Top tweets28:45 - Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall38:25 - Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective?44:00 - Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business?51:00 - Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following?58:10 - Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong?1:11:15 - Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed?1:17:40 - Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)?1:30:20 - Performance recapSubscribe on:1 hr 33 min
- 22 The Systematic Investor Series – February 11th, 2019Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to [email protected]Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibertFeel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.Episode Summary00:00 - Intro01:15 - Weekly review06:10 - Top tweets28:45 - Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall38:25 - Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective?44:00 - Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business?51:00 - Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following?58:10 - Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong?1:11:15 - Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed?1:17:40 - Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)?1:30:20 - Performance recapSubscribe on:1 hr 33 min
- SI22: Can intra-day trading be scaled to a big business?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
-----
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:15 – Weekly review of performance
06:10 – Top tweets
28:45 – Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall
38:25 – Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective?
44:00 – Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business?
51:00 – Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following?
58:10 – Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong?
01:11:15 – Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed?
01:17:40 – Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)?
01:30:20 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 33 min - Best of TTU – Market Psychology & Universal TruthsA while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott. If you would like to listen to the full conversation just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 27 and Episode 28.A Blend of Philosophy & Psychology in the MarketsScott: I approach the whole trading situation from a real blend of philosophy and psychology. We've talked a little bit about the psychology stuff, not a lot, but the philosophy really to me was a bigger element, a bigger issue in terms of pushing me in a certain direction in how my trading is going to look and what I needed to do to support a particular style of trading. That goes back to it's a gradual process that's happening in those earlier years that I was talking about trading for myself and trading for this small trading group that I put together and then my experiences - my three years as a Senior Trader at A.L. Management. You go through this whole process and as the whole time I'm looking at what is my strategy? How do I want to approach the markets? What is my strength? What do I want to do? I kept having a problem reconciling all the different strategies that I was reading about.There was a certain philosophical hiccup in my brain that I could not get my arms around. What it was, was the fact that my background in philosophy is more geared toward ancient philosophy. My father got me turned on the Aristotle and Plato and the Socratics at an early age and he was my professor for a lot of my classes in college. I was either well educated or brainwashed; I'm not sure which perspective I want to take, but I had a real passion for the classics and Aristotelian logic in particular. So the markets that I'm looking at I'm thinking OK, how do I want to trade? I'm thinking do I want to be...it seemed to me it didn't matter what I picked.If I was going to trade the markets on a fundamental basis, I am basically saying that I am looking back in the past and I'm looking at certain fundamentals that would make something cheap or expensive or that's what everybody says, that this stocks to use ratio the price ought to be X, or when this happens, or whatever, if you are in the stock market, the PE ratio."For my field of study, which is Epistemology - the theory of knowledge - how do you know you know? How can you validate or verify anything that you know, and what gives you any confidence in what you believe is true?"You are looking at all these different events in the past and you are saying this will tell me in the future what value is and what it ought to be. If I am a technical trader I am going to look at the past and say here's a head and shoulders pattern and most of the time if that happens in the past... I've counted 75 times that it's happened out of X it seems to point in the future that this is going to happen. Pick a strategy, any strategy, at the end of the day I ran into a real difficulty with trying to understand just because it's happened in the past why does that mean it's going to happen in the future? For my field of study, which is epistemology, which is the theory of knowledge - how do you know you know? How can you validate or verify anything that you know and what give you any confidence in what you believe is true?Niels: So universal truth I guess.Scott: Exactly and that's what Aristotle basically said. He basically invented logic as what everybody accepted for 2,000 years. Everybody has been debating over the last 100 years or so whether it was right or not. He said in classical logic and syllogistic logic that when we put these propositions t...12 min
- Best of TTU – Market Psychology & Universal TruthsA while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott. If you would like to listen to the full conversation just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 27 and Episode 28.A Blend of Philosophy & Psychology in the MarketsScott: I approach the whole trading situation from a real blend of philosophy and psychology. We've talked a little bit about the psychology stuff, not a lot, but the philosophy really to me was a bigger element, a bigger issue in terms of pushing me in a certain direction in how my trading is going to look and what I needed to do to support a particular style of trading. That goes back to it's a gradual process that's happening in those earlier years that I was talking about trading for myself and trading for this small trading group that I put together and then my experiences - my three years as a Senior Trader at A.L. Management. You go through this whole process and as the whole time I'm looking at what is my strategy? How do I want to approach the markets? What is my strength? What do I want to do? I kept having a problem reconciling all the different strategies that I was reading about.There was a certain philosophical hiccup in my brain that I could not get my arms around. What it was, was the fact that my background in philosophy is more geared toward ancient philosophy. My father got me turned on the Aristotle and Plato and the Socratics at an early age and he was my professor for a lot of my classes in college. I was either well educated or brainwashed; I'm not sure which perspective I want to take, but I had a real passion for the classics and Aristotelian logic in particular. So the markets that I'm looking at I'm thinking OK, how do I want to trade? I'm thinking do I want to be...it seemed to me it didn't matter what I picked.If I was going to trade the markets on a fundamental basis, I am basically saying that I am looking back in the past and I'm looking at certain fundamentals that would make something cheap or expensive or that's what everybody says, that this stocks to use ratio the price ought to be X, or when this happens, or whatever, if you are in the stock market, the PE ratio."For my field of study, which is Epistemology - the theory of knowledge - how do you know you know? How can you validate or verify anything that you know, and what gives you any confidence in what you believe is true?"You are looking at all these different events in the past and you are saying this will tell me in the future what value is and what it ought to be. If I am a technical trader I am going to look at the past and say here's a head and shoulders pattern and most of the time if that happens in the past... I've counted 75 times that it's happened out of X it seems to point in the future that this is going to happen. Pick a strategy, any strategy, at the end of the day I ran into a real difficulty with trying to understand just because it's happened in the past why does that mean it's going to happen in the future? For my field of study, which is epistemology, which is the theory of knowledge - how do you know you know? How can you validate or verify anything that you know and what give you any confidence in what you believe is true?Niels: So universal truth I guess.Scott: Exactly and that's what Aristotle basically said. He basically invented logic as what everybody accepted for 2,000 years. Everybody has been debating over the last 100 years or so whether it was right or not. He said in classical logic and syllogistic logic that when we put these propositions t...12 min
- BO12: Market Psychology & Universal Truths
A while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
12 min - 21 The Systematic Investor Series – February 4th, 2019Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to [email protected]Episode Summary0:00 - Intro3:30 - Weekly review14:00 - Top tweets26:55 - Question 1: Samuel; What is a good CTA trading cost hurdle rate?34:10 Question 2: Samuel; Why do people say your biggest drawdown is always in front of you?41:10 - Question 3: Michael; How much has your parameter set changed (and related questions)?50:10 - Question 4: Francois; What do you know about Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simons)?56:30 - Miami conference review+TF thoughts1:10:00 - Performance recapSubscribe on:1 hr 14 min
About Top Traders Unplugged
From the publisher's feed
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade.
Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge.
Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com
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