Russia’s swift and unprovoked invasion of the country this past week has been met with insane condemnations from leaders across the globe, including in the United States and Europe. As Russian soldiers engage in a full air and land operation on a massive scale, questions remain about how their military campaign might unfold as well as what the geopolitical implications might be for surrounding countries and the NATO alliance. On February 25, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis. 

Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on US national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA’s Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency, covering Eurasian militaries. 

Michael Kofman serves as a Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses’ Russia Studies Program, and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, D.C. His research focuses on the Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in the Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.

War in Ukraine: What Next?

Small bites on Transatlantic Security, NATO, the EU, Russia, and all things Europe. Hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend at the Center for a New American Security.

News

Last weekend, voters across the European Union went to the polls to select the next European Parliament. In the run-up to the elections, many observers were focused on the potential for large gains by the far-right, and those projections turned out to be largely accurate, with far-right parties now occupying roughly a quarter of the seats in Parliament. The performance of the far-right was particularly striking in the two largest EU member states of Germany and France, even causing French President Emmanuel Macron to call for snap elections this summer. At the same time, centrist parties look set to continue to control the European Parliament in the years ahead, having won enough seats to form a comfortable governing majority. Finally, as we look ahead to the coming weeks, all eyes will be on the contest for the European Union’s top jobs, as national leaders haggle over the next European Commission President, European Council President, and High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. To address all of this, Klaus Welle and Susi Dennison join Nicholas Lokker and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.  
Klaus Welle is the former Secretary-General of the European Parliament, a role in which he served from 2009 to 2022. And Klaus now serves as the Chaiman of the Academic Council at the Martens Center.  
Susi Dennison is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her topics of focus include strategy, politics and cohesion in European foreign policy; climate and energy, migration, and the toolkit for Europe as a global actor. 

Unpacking the European Parliament Elections

The current moment in the transatlantic relationship is one of high stakes. The United States and its European allies are continuing to grapple with numerous difficulties, including the ongoing war in Ukraine; Russia’s increasing coordination with other adversaries including China, Iran, and North Korea; and an increasing Russian effort to wage hybrid warfare on our societies. Meanwhile, NATO is rapidly approaching its 75th-anniversary summit in Washington next month, where allies will need to find consensus on the way forward in an increasingly dangerous geopolitical environment. To discuss this and more, Thomas Wright joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Thomas Wright is the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Strategic Planning with the National Security Council. Before entering government, he was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is also the author of All Measures Short of War: The Contest for the 21st Century and the Future of American Power, and coauthor, with Colin Kahl, of Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order.  

The High Stakes of European Security with Thomas Wright at the 2024 CNAS National Security Conference

The effects of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine are reverberating far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Perhaps most fundamentally, Putin’s invasion has catalyzed deepening cooperation among Russia and its like-minded partners in China, Iran, and North Korea. Cooperation among these four countries was already expanding before 2022, but the war has accelerated the deepening of their economic, military, political, and technological ties. Although these countries may have banded together in discontent, their repeated interactions and converging views of a future order have the potential to foster deeper and more enduring partnerships. The critical questions no longer center on whether cooperation between these countries will grow, but rather on how deep and durable the cooperation will be, how it will affect U.S. and European interests, and what the West can do to shape its trajectory and ameliorate its negative effects. To discuss all of this and more, Richard Fontaine and Hal Brands join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.  
Richard Fontaine is the Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security. Prior to coming to CNAS, he was foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain and worked at the State Department, the National Security Council, and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.   
Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

Richard Fontaine and Hal Brands Discuss the Axis of Upheaval

On 14 May Georgia’s parliament passed a controversial law that requires media and nonprofit groups to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power” if they receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad. The law mirrors a similar law introduced in Russia in 2012, which has been used to crack down on NGOs and other organizations deemed critical of the Kremlin. Many in Georgia view this law as a similar attempt to restrict freedom of speech and reduce the space for civil society. In the weeks following May 14, Georgians took part in mass protests in Tbilisi, and relations between the Georgian government and the EU and US further deteriorated. Moreover, despite Georgian president Salome Zourabichvili's veto of the controversial “foreign agent” law on May 18, lawmakers overrode this decision on May 28, putting it back on the table. To help us understand what is happening in Georgia and the wider implications of recent events for Georgian democracy and their EU ambitions Giorgi Baramidze and Laura Thornton join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.  
Giorgi Baramidze is the political secretary of the United National Movement, the largest opposition party in Georgia. Previously he was the State Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration (2004-2012), and the Minister of Defense (2004).
Laura Thornton is the senior vice president of democracy at the German Marshall Fund. She oversees the Alliance for Securing Democracy, and works with GMF’s transatlantic trusts which support civil society organizations and actors in Central and Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans and the Caucuses.

Georgia's Democracy Crisis

As Russia’s war in Ukraine progresses into its third year, there are questions in some parts of the NATO alliance about how long the West can sustain its support for Kyiv and how the war will actually end. Simultaneously, China and other countries like North Korea and Iran continue to provide support to Russia, and Russia is stepping up hybrid attacks on our societies – everything from disinformation ahead of the European elections to arson, sabotage, and GPS jamming. All of this comes against the backdrop of the upcoming 75th anniversary NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., where there are still looming questions about what exactly will be delivered. To discuss how we should be thinking about and responding to these questions, Pål Jonson, Sweden’s Minister of Defense, and Hanno Pevkur, the Minister of Defense of Estonia, join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Kate Johnston live at the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Estonia.  
Pål Jonson has held the position of Sweden’s Minister of Defense since 2022. He previously served as Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Defense, and Secretary General of the Swedish Atlantic Council.  
Hanno Pevkur assumed office as the minister of defense of Estonia in 2022. Prior to this, he held several positions in the government including Minister of the Interior, Minister of Justice, and Minister of Social Affairs.  

War in Ukraine: What Next?

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