What Causes Severe Rainfall in Kenya?

Heavy rains and severe flooding have been hitting Kenya since March. They are among the most disastrous rainstorms to hit the East African country in recent years.自三月以来，肯尼亚遭受暴雨和严重洪水袭击。 这是近年来袭击这个东非国家的最具灾难性的暴雨之一。

At least 169 people have died from the heavy rains. At least 91 others are missing, the latest government estimates say.至少有169人因暴雨死亡。 政府最新估计称，至少还有 91 人失踪。

On Monday, at least 48 people died after water blew through a blocked river tunnel under a railway line in southwestern Kenya.周一，肯尼亚西南部铁路线下一条被堵塞的河流隧道被洪水冲破，造成至少 48 人死亡。

The flooding has displaced more than 190,000 people and damaged roads and other structures.洪水导致超过 190,000 人流离失所，道路和其他建筑物受损。

Seasonal weather patterns, climate change and other natural weather events all combine to create deadly rainstorms.季节性天气模式、气候变化和其他自然天气事件结合在一起，造成了致命的暴雨。

Kenya and some other parts of eastern Africa have two main rainfall periods: the “long rains” season from March to May, and the “short rains” season from October to December.肯尼亚和东非其他一些地区有两个主要降雨期：3月至5月的“长雨”季节和10月至12月的“短雨”季节。

The “long rains” season is when most of the country’s average yearly rainfall happens.“长雨”季节是该国年平均降雨量的大部分时间。

In its forecast for this year’s “long rains” season, the Kenya Meteorological Department predicted above-average rainfall in many parts of the country. It also warned of flooding, landslides and other harmful effects.肯尼亚气象部门在对今年“长雨”季节的预测中预计，该国许多地区的降雨量将高于平均水平。 它还警告洪水、山体滑坡和其他有害影响。

Last year’s “short rains” season saw severe storms in many parts of the country. The meteorological department said Lamu, Mombasa and Garissa areas received nearly three times their long-term average rainfall.去年“短雨”季节，全国多地遭遇严重风暴。 气象部门表示，拉穆、蒙巴萨和加里萨地区的降雨量几乎是长期平均降雨量的三倍。

Kenya's rainfall frequency and intensity are affected by a natural climate system called the Indian Ocean Dipole.肯尼亚的降雨频率和强度受到称为印度洋偶极子的自然气候系统的影响。

The Indian Ocean Dipole makes the surface of the western Indian Ocean warmer and then colder than the eastern Indian Ocean. It causes heavy rainfall in areas west of the Indian Ocean, such as Kenya, and droughts in Indonesia and Australia.印度洋偶极子使西印度洋的表面比东印度洋先暖后冷。 它导致肯尼亚等印度洋以西地区出现强降雨，并导致印度尼西亚和澳大利亚出现干旱。

Joyce Kimutai is a researcher at Imperial College London. She said that, in Kenya’s case, the Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change are likely bringing more severe rainfall and flooding.乔伊斯·基穆泰 (Joyce Kimutai) 是伦敦帝国理工学院的研究员。 她说，就肯尼亚而言，印度洋偶极子和气候变化可能会带来更严重的降雨和洪水。

In a study in December last year, Kimutai and other scientists from World Weather Attribution found that human-caused climate change had made last year’s “short rains” season in Kenya and other parts of eastern Africa up to two times more intense.在去年 12 月的一项研究中，Kimutai 和世界天气归因组织的其他科学家发现，人为造成的气候变化使肯尼亚和东非其他地区去年的“短雨”季节强度增加了两倍。

It has become more difficult to predict long-term weather in Kenya in recent years. The start and the length of dry and wet seasons have increasingly changed.近年来，预测肯尼亚的长期天气变得更加困难。 旱季和雨季的开始和长度发生了越来越大的变化。

The Kenya Meteorological Department expects the “long rains” season to continue into June. In its latest weather report on Monday, the department said it expects heavy rain in six areas of the country. It also predicted flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in hilly areas.肯尼亚气象部门预计“长雨”季节将持续到六月。 该部门在周一最新的天气报告中表示，预计该国六个地区将出现大雨。 它还预测了低洼地区的洪水和丘陵地区的山体滑坡。

Flooding in East Africa also has killed more than 150 people in neighboring Tanzania and Somalia. It has also affected hundreds of thousands of people in Ethiopia and Burundi.东非的洪水也导致邻国坦桑尼亚和索马里的 150 多人死亡。 它还影响了埃塞俄比亚和布隆迪的数十万人。