As the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index finished above the 4,000-point level on the first trading day of 2026, the upward momentum is likely to continue in the A-share market throughout the year, which is backed by self-reliant technology advancement and continued recovery in economic fundamentals, said experts on Monday.
专家于周一表示，2026 年首个交易日，基准上证综指收盘站上 4000 点整数关口，依托自主科技创新突破以及经济基本面的持续修复，A 股市场全年上行势头有望延续。
Their comments came after the benchmark index closed 1.38 percent higher at 4,023.42 on Monday, while the Shenzhen Component Index gained 2.24 percent. The tech-heavy ChiNext board in Shenzhen jumped 2.85 percent. Combined trading value at the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges totaled 2.5 trillion yuan ($360 billion), up 500 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
此番观点发布的背景是，该基准指数周一收盘上涨 1.38%，报 4023.42 点；深证成指上涨 2.24%；主打科技股的创业板指大涨 2.85%。沪深两市合计成交额达 2.5 万亿元人民币（折合 3600 亿美元），较前一交易日增加 5000 亿元。
Insurance companies reported the strongest rally on Monday, surging 6.72 percent on average. The semiconductor sector also jumped 4.18 percent.
保险板块成为周一领涨主力，平均涨幅达 6.72%；半导体板块同样大涨 4.18%。
Experts from China Galaxy Securities explained that the recent rally in the Hong Kong market, which occurred during the New Year holiday break of A shares, coupled with the recent strengthening of the renminbi in the foreign exchange market, has boosted investor confidence.
中国银河证券专家解读称，A 股元旦休市期间港股市场的连日走高，叠加近期人民币汇率在外汇市场的持续走强，共同提振了投资者信心。
Analysts from Founder Securities said that breakthroughs to be anticipated in emerging industries — such as commercial spaceflight, artificial intelligence, brain-computer interface and nuclear fusion — will further propel the A-share rally as 2026 plays out.
方正证券分析师表示，2026 年，商业航天、人工智能、脑机接口、核聚变等新兴产业的预期突破，将进一步推动 A 股市场上行。
Foreign institutions hold a positive outlook on the A-share performance this year.
外资机构对今年 A 股表现持积极展望。
Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist, Kinger Lau, and his team wrote in a report in late December that China's major indexes still have room for 38 percent growth by the end of 2027, with companies' improving profitability to be a major driver.
高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津及其团队在去年 12 月末的一份报告中写道，到 2027 年底，中国主要股指仍有 38% 的上涨空间，企业盈利能力的持续改善将是核心驱动因素。
Meng Lei, a China equity strategist of UBS Securities, said that profitability growth, which came at 6 percent in 2025, is likely to further rise to 8 percent this year.
瑞银证券中国股票策略师孟磊表示，2025 年企业盈利增速为 6%，今年这一增速有望进一步提升至 8%。
UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office wrote in a note at the end of 2025 that about 7 trillion yuan of Chinese household excess savings may flow into the stock market this year, sustaining the upward trend.
瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室在 2025 年末的一份报告中指出，今年中国居民约 7 万亿元的超额储蓄有望流入股市，为市场上行趋势提供支撑。
JPMorgan said in a forecast that the CSI 300 Index, which monitors the 300 A-share heavyweights, may touch 5,200 points at the end of this year. Morgan Stanley sets a target of 4,840 points for the same index, which stood at 4,717.75 points on Monday.
摩根大通在一份预测报告中称，涵盖 300 只 A 股龙头股的沪深 300 指数，年底有望触及 5200 点。摩根士丹利则将该指数目标点位定为 4840 点，该指数周一收盘报 4717.75 点。
According to experts from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the readings of China's purchasing managers' index in December grew beyond seasonal improvements, which further trims the downward possibility of the A-share market this coming spring.
申万宏源证券专家表示，12 月中国采购经理人指数（PMI）的回升幅度超出季节性改善水平，这进一步降低了今年春季 A 股市场出现回调的可能性。
The A-share market will prepare itself for an overall bull run this year. The RMB's recent stronger-than-expected appreciation has strengthened the global market's understanding of the competitiveness of the Chinese manufacturing sector, which may trigger the accelerated return of foreign capital into A shares, they said.
他们指出，A 股市场正为今年的全面牛市蓄力。近期人民币汇率的超预期走强，加深了全球市场对中国制造业竞争力的认知，这或将推动外资加速回流 A 股。
Zhang Xia, chief strategy analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that the odds are high for the A-share market to stage a bullish performance this spring. The issuance of local government special bonds and central budgetary investments are likely to speed up."Government expenditure and investment data are likely to improve, which will lead to marginal recovery in economic fundamentals," Zhang said.
招商证券首席策略分析师张夏（音译）表示，A 股市场今年春季走出一波上涨行情的概率较大。地方政府专项债发行以及中央预算内投资有望提速，“政府支出和投资数据的好转，将带动经济基本面实现边际修复。”
Xia Fanjie, a strategist at CSC Financial Co Ltd, said that market liquidity and foreign exchange performance during this year's New Year holiday were significantly better than during the previous two years. The amiable external market may lead to an A-share bull shortly after the holiday.
中信建投证券策略分析师夏凡捷表示，今年元旦假期期间的市场流动性与外汇表现，均明显优于前两年。良好的外部市场环境，或推动 A 股在节后快速迎来一波上涨行情。
The overall relaxed credit environment in China is conducive to extending the bullish performance for a longer period. Investor sentiment remains high. Opportunities may be churned out in industries with higher industry prospects, including nonferrous metals and AI, as well as hot market topics such as commercial spaceflight and nuclear power, Xia said.
夏凡捷称，国内整体宽松的信用环境，有助于延长市场上涨周期。当前投资者情绪处于高位，有色金属、人工智能等行业前景向好的板块，以及商业航天、核电等市场热点主题，有望持续涌现投资机会。
The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 18.3 percent in 2025, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged 30.62 percent. The ChiNext spiked 51.42 percent last year.
2025 年，上证综指全年大涨 18.3%，深证成指飙升 30.62%，创业板指更是暴涨 51.42%。
Qiu Xiang, chief A-share market strategist of CITIC Securities, said a noticeable structural bull took shape in the A-share market last year.
中信证券首席 A 股策略师裘翔表示，A 股市场已于去年形成了特征鲜明的结构性牛市。
The market has reevaluated China's self-reliant technology capabilities, the resilience of external demand amid a complicated global trade environment and the surging demand for AI reasoning. While upward momentum is a major theme, fluctuations may not be avoided in the A-share market as the new year begins, Qiu said.
他指出，市场已对中国的自主科技实力、复杂全球贸易环境下的外需韧性，以及人工智能推理需求的爆发式增长进行了重新估值。尽管上行是全年主基调，但新年伊始，A 股市场的波动仍在所难免。核心单词（音标 + 释义）
momentum /məˈmentəm/ n. 势头；动力
profitability /ˌprɒfɪtəˈbɪləti/ n. 盈利能力；收益性
liquidity /lɪˈkwɪdəti/ n. 流动性；资产变现能力
resilience /rɪˈzɪliəns/ n. 韧性；恢复力
