China is accelerating its push toward a consumption-led economic model, with policymakers identifying the expansion of domestic demand as the key driver of GDP growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), economists and officials said.
经济学家和相关官员表示,中国正加快向消费主导型经济模式转型,政策制定者已明确将扩大内需列为 “十五五” 规划时期(2026-2030 年)国内生产总值增长的核心驱动力。
Following the tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which prioritized domestic demand for 2026, experts noted a strategic transition: China is moving beyond simple volume growth toward "structural optimization". This involves leveraging fiscal tools to boost household incomes and specifically targets the high-growth services sector to buffer against external uncertainties.
在为 2026 年经济工作定调、并将扩大内需列为重点任务的中央经济工作会议召开后,专家指出中国正迎来战略转型:经济发展正从单纯的规模增长转向 “结构优化”。这一转型包括运用财政工具提振居民收入,并重点瞄准高增长的服务业,以抵御外部环境的不确定性。
An official from the Office of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs confirmed that Beijing will roll out concrete plans to boost household incomes and raise basic pensions while increasing the supply of high-quality products and services and also removing unreasonable restrictions to fully unlock consumption potential.
中央财经委员会办公室的一位官员证实,国家将出台具体方案,在提高居民收入、上调基本养老金的同时,增加优质产品和服务供给,消除不合理限制,以充分释放消费潜力。
Experts see this policy stance as a signal for significant growth in specific areas, and express optimism about the long-term potential of China's consumer market.
专家认为,这一政策立场预示着部分特定领域将迎来大幅增长,并对中国消费市场的长期潜力持乐观态度。
Wang Wei, a senior researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at a recent forum hosted by China News Service: "China's consumption growth maintains strong momentum and ample potential. Emerging areas such as digital services, green technology and health-related demand are expected to become the primary engines of the consumer market."
国务院发展研究中心资深研究员王伟在近期由中国新闻社主办的一场论坛上表示:“中国消费增长势头强劲、潜力充足。数字服务、绿色科技以及健康相关需求等新兴领域,有望成为消费市场的核心增长引擎。”
Official data support this structural divergence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of services climbed 5.4 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, outpacing the overall retail growth of 4 percent.
官方数据印证了这一结构性分化趋势。国家统计局数据显示,2025 年前 11 个月,服务业零售额同比增长 5.4%,增速高于整体零售 4% 的同比增幅。
Chen Lifen, a researcher at the DRC, described the current phase as a critical evolution from a goods-dominated model to one that balances goods and services, with a long-term trajectory toward a services-led structure.
国务院发展研究中心研究员陈丽芬表示,当前阶段正处于关键转型期,经济模式正从商品主导型转向商品和服务均衡型,长期来看将朝着服务主导型结构迈进。
"As income levels rise, demand for services, which typically have high income elasticity, naturally increases its share of total wallet spending," Chen said, adding that with basic needs largely met, the "quality upgrade" is driving capital toward personal development, leisure and smart home ecosystems.
陈丽芬指出:“随着居民收入水平提升,收入弹性较高的服务类需求在居民总消费中的占比自然会上升。” 她补充道,在基本需求得到充分满足的背景下,“品质升级” 正推动资本流向个人发展、休闲娱乐以及智能家居生态等领域。
The shift is already reshaping corporate investment strategies as companies move to capture these high-quality demand pockets.
这一转型已经在重塑企业的投资策略,企业纷纷布局以抢占这些高品质需求市场。
Fang Xing, a vice-general manager at Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, highlighted the surging "pet economy" — now valued at approximately 300 billion yuan ($42.81 billion). With veterinary costs often exceeding 10,000 yuan for major procedures, financial institutions are developing specialized insurance products to hedge these rising household costs.
平安产险副总经理方兴特别提到了蓬勃发展的 “宠物经济”,其市场规模目前已达约 3000 亿元人民币(合 428.1 亿美元)。由于宠物重大诊疗项目的费用往往超过 1 万元,金融机构正研发专项保险产品,帮助家庭对冲这类不断上涨的支出。
Similarly, in the manufacturing sector, the focus has shifted from scale to efficiency. Guo Yanhu, a director with Gree Electric Appliances, said consumer demand for green energy is driving research and development. He cited Gree's investment in AI-driven energy systems — which has boosted efficiency by over 25 percent — as a direct response to both domestic eco-targets and demand from overseas markets.
无独有偶,制造业的发展重心也从规模转向了效率。格力电器董事郭彦虎表示,消费者对绿色能源的需求正驱动企业加大研发投入。他举例称,格力对人工智能驱动能源系统的投资,使能效提升超 25%,这一举措既是对国内生态目标的响应,也是对海外市场需求的直接对接。
Economists emphasize that sustaining this momentum requires institutional reforms. Su Jian, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, said expanding "high-quality demand" requires a virtuous cycle where new products help cultivate new demand, while cost-reducing innovations allow new demand to scale.
经济学家强调,要维持这一增长势头,必须推进制度改革。北京大学经济学院教授苏剑表示,扩大 “高品质需求” 需要形成良性循环:新产品助力培育新需求,而降本创新则为新需求的规模化发展提供支撑。
While fiscal and monetary policies are essential to expand demand, Su said expanding high-quality demand depends on developing new quality productive forces through product innovation and process innovation.
苏剑指出,尽管财政和货币政策对扩大需求至关重要,但扩大高品质需求的核心在于通过产品创新和工艺创新,培育新质生产力。
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, added that boosting consumption during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is a strategic choice rather than a short-term policy response.
粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒补充道,“十五五” 期间提振消费是一项战略抉择,而非短期的政策应对措施。
"Key to raising the household consumption rate will be improving income distribution, strengthening social security and widening market access. These are the fundamental levers to converting potential demand into actual economic activity," Luo said.
罗志恒表示:“提高居民消费率的关键在于完善收入分配、强化社会保障以及拓宽市场准入。这三项举措是将潜在需求转化为实际经济活动的根本抓手。”
consumption /kənˈsʌmpʃn/ 消费
domestic /dəˈmestɪk/ 国内的;家庭的
innovation /ˌɪnəˈveɪʃn/ 创新
elasticity /ˌiːlæstɪˈsɪəti/ 弹性