Chinese policymakers will likely adopt a more pro-growth stance and strengthen "extraordinary countercyclical measures" to spur the economy amid pressing challenges from sluggish domestic demand and external uncertainties, economists said.

经济学家表示，面对国内需求疲软、外部不确定性等紧迫挑战，中国政策制定者可能会采取更加倾向于经济增长的立场，并加强“超常规逆周期调节”以刺激经济。

They anticipate a new round of stimulus packages focusing on driving domestic demand and boosting consumption to address domestic structural issues, offset the rising headwinds from a grimmer global environment and foster sustainable, high-quality growth in the long run.

他们预计，新一轮刺激计划将侧重于拉动内需、促进消费，解决国内结构性问题，抵消全球环境恶化带来的日益加剧的逆风，促进长期的、可持续的高质量增长。

The economists also said they believe that measures in the pipeline may include more public borrowing and spending, with a growing shift of policy emphasis to consumption, enhanced financial support for low-income households, and increased spending on the property sector through the buying back of land or by helping developers finish presold homes.

经济学家还表示，他们认为即将出台的措施可能包括增加财政支出、政策重点逐渐转向消费、加强对低收入家庭的财政支持、通过回购土地或帮助开发商完成预售房屋来增加房地产行业支出。

Their comments came as the market is closely watching how China will draw up growth targets and policies to revive the world's second-largest economy when China's top legislative and political advisory bodies meet for the annual two sessions in early March.

这些评论发表之际，中国即将在3月初召开全国两会，而市场正密切关注中国会如何制定增长目标和政策，重振世界第二大经济体。

Noting that the broader economy is still facing pressures from a harsher external environment and still-weak domestic demand, Sun Xuegong, director of the department of policy study and consultation at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that policymakers will likely introduce a package of stimulus measures aimed at boosting market confidence and stabilizing expectations. The academy is part of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic regulator.

中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工指出，当前经济仍面临外部环境恶化、内需持续疲软的压力，政策制定者可能会推出一系列刺激措施，提振市场信心、稳定市场预期。中国宏观经济研究院是中国最高经济管理部门国家发展和改革委员会的直属研究机构。

As authorities pledged to implement extraordinary countercyclical policies this year, Sun highlighted the need to expand fiscal expenditure, with policy focus shifting to spurring consumption.

孙学工强调，由于政府已承诺今年实施超常规逆周期政策，有必要扩大财政支出，将政策重点转向刺激消费。

"We need a comprehensive policy mix to boost consumption," Sun said in an interview with China Daily. "The government has already announced raising the pension level and providing subsidies to the low-income group. And this year, the country will extend the program of trade-in deals for consumer goods and expand the scope to more fields of consumption."

孙学工在接受《中国日报》采访时表示：“我们需要一套综合政策来提振消费。政府已经宣布提高养老金水平，为低收入群体提供补贴。今年，中国还将延长消费品以旧换新计划，并将范围扩大到更多消费领域。”

With a series of existing policies taking effect gradually and more supportive measures in the pipeline, Sun said he expects to see a pickup in consumption.

孙学工表示，随着一系列现有政策逐步生效，更多支持性措施即将出台，预计消费将有所回升。

At a study session held last week by the State Council, China's Cabinet, Premier Li Qiang emphasized boosting consumption and improving people's livelihoods through stronger and more targeted measures, in a bid to strengthen the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic development.

2月21日，国务院常务会议召开。会议上，国务院总理李强强调，要通过更有力、更有针对性的措施提振消费、改善民生，增强消费在推动经济发展中的基础性作用。

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank, said her team expects the government to ramp up fiscal spending to support consumption and the household sector, including more than doubling the size of the trade-in program to over 300 billion yuan ($41.3 billion), creating a subsidy program for families with young children, and increasing the payout level of residents' basic pension and the government contribution to basic social insurance.

瑞银证券中国首席经济学家汪涛表示，我们团队预计政府将加大对消费及居民部门的财政支出，包括将消费品以旧换新规模扩大一倍以上至3000亿元人民币（413亿美元）、设立生育和育儿补贴计划、提高城乡居民基础养老金支付水平及政府对基本社保的财政补助水平。

"These much-anticipated measures could gradually help underpin household confidence and unleash consumption potential in the long run," Wang said.

汪涛表示：“这些市场期待已久的措施有助于逐步提振居民信心、释放长期消费增长潜力。”

On the monetary front, Wang said she anticipates that the two sessions will follow the "moderately loose" monetary policy tone set during the Central Economic Work Conference in December, with an explicit call for lowering the funding cost of corporate financing and household credit, cutting reserve requirement ratios and policy rates and enhancing counter cyclical adjustments.

汪涛表示，在货币政策方面，她预计两会或将维持2024年12月中央经济工作会议所提出的“适度宽松”的货币政策基调，包括明确要求降低企业融资及居民信贷成本、下调存款准备金率及政策利率、加强逆周期调节。

Tian Xuan, associate dean of Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance, said this year's economic growth target will likely remain at "around 5 percent", the same as last year, reflecting the continuity and consistency of policies and aligning with the country's aspiration that its per capita GDP would reach the level of a moderately developed economy by 2035.

清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩表示，今年的经济增长目标可能仍保持与去年持平的“5%左右”，体现政策的连续性和一致性，符合中国到2035年人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平的愿望。

The expectation of an unchanged growth target comes as China's major economic hubs, such as Beijing and Shanghai as well as Guangdong province, have announced GDP growth goals of around 5 percent for the year.

北京、上海、广东等中国主要经济中心已宣布今年GDP增长目标为5%左右，因此预期今年经济增长目标不变。

"It would be a goal that we need to strive for and reach with extra effort, which can effectively inspire all the people across the country to work hard together," said Tian, who expects this year's budget deficit-to-GDP ratio to increase to 4 percent or higher.

田轩预计今年财政赤字率将提高至4%或以上，他表示：“这将是一个我们需要争取并付出额外努力才能实现的目标，可以有效激励全国人民共同努力。”

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said a higher fiscal deficit ratio would allow the central government to issue more bonds, ramp up transfers to local governments and alleviate fiscal pressures.

野村证券中国区首席经济学家陆挺表示，增加财政赤字率可以让中央政府发行更多债券，增加给地方政府的转移支付，缓解财政压力。

Lu said the fiscal stimulus package will likely focus on areas including funding for a trade-in program for equipment upgrades and consumer goods, spending on the property sector through the buying back of land or by helping developers finish presold homes, and financial support for low-income households as well as funding to encourage childbirth.

陆挺表示，财政刺激计划可能重点关注以下几个领域：为设备升级和消费品以旧换新计划提供资金；通过回购土地或帮助开发商完成预售房屋来增加房地产行业的支出；为低收入家庭提供财政支持；为鼓励生育提供资金。

"The Chinese economy may get off to a relatively good start.…We expect year-on-year real GDP growth to stay at 5 percent in the first quarter," he said.

他表示：“中国经济可能迎来一个相对良好的开局……我们预计第一季度实际GDP同比增长率将保持在5%。”

The breakthrough of China's homegrown artificial intelligence model DeepSeek has triggered a stock rally that may boost investment and consumption, while the expansion of the trade-in program is stimulating sales of digital goods, he added.

他补充说，中国自主研发的人工智能模型DeepSeek的突破性成果引发股市上涨，这可能会促进投资和消费，而扩大以旧换新范围也在刺激数码产品的销售。

explicit

adj.清楚明白的；明确的