Analysis

Could a hot war with Iran be about to start? Israel could strike against Iran's nuclear facilities; Syria is in revolt; the world is on edge. Edward Stourton probes the West's options.

Janan Ganesh of The Economist speaks to Downing Street's favourite intellectual, Nassim Nicolas Taleb - author of the best selling book The Black Swan - to investigate his political appeal.

Producer: Mukul Devichand

Why Labour thinkers believe German society should be the model for Britain's centre left. Matthew Taylor, a former policy adviser to Tony Blair, presents.

Justin Webb explores what the primaries reveal about the state of the right in the US. Is the Republican party really split? We explore how the party has shifted to the right, and the reasons for it. The role of the Tea party within the conservative movement, and the effect it's having on the primary race. We look at what ideas the American right offers in the post financial crisis world -that might enthuse Americans and perhaps the rest of us too. And ask is the party ready to lead again.

Contributors:

It may come as no great surprise that many of us have experienced a wage squeeze, while the cost of living has gone the other way, since the financial crisis of 2008. However, as Duncan Weldon, a senior economist at the Trades Union Congress, points out, wages for most people in the UK began stagnating years before the crisis.

We tend to think of the early 2000s as a time of relative wealth: house prices were rising, credit flowed easily, the government introduced a generous tax credit scheme and people generally felt better off. But Duncan Weldon argues these masked the reality of what was going on.

Work done by the think tank The Resolution Foundation, which focuses on those on low and modest incomes, shows that there was almost no wage growth in the middle and below during the five years leading up to 2008 and yet the economy grew by 11% in that period. Others also point out that the share of the national income which goes into wages, as opposed to profits, has been decreasing since the mid-1970s. The argument is that less of the economic pie is going into the pockets of ordinary workers.

What is also clear is that a disproportionate amount of the economic wealth has been going to those at the top. The earnings of the richest few per cent have increased rapidly in the UK since the 1980s and that pattern accelerated in the last ten years. In the United States that process began earlier and has been more extreme.

Some economists argue that this is not a problem in itself as taxation, for example, helps to re-distribute the money to the less well off or those with disadvantages.

In Analysis Duncan Weldon asks why wages stopped rising in the years before the crash and what was the driving force for the squeeze?

Europe thinks the unthinkable - what happens if the Eurozone splits. What would happen to the banking sector, how would a new currency be put in place, can contagion be halted, and more fundamentally could the Euro survive? Policymakers across Europe are putting their contingency plans together. We reveal what some of the preparations may be. Reporter Chris Bowlby runs through some of the scenarios of what may happen if a country were to withdraw, and crucially what would happen next.

Contributors: Dawn Holland, National Institute of Economic and Social Research; Aristotle Kallis, Political Scientist; David Marsh, author "The History of the Euro"; David Lascelles, senior fellow of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation; Mark Crickett De La Rue; and Larry Hatheway, UBS

Producer: Kavita Puri.

Should the world fear the rise of political Islam in the newly democratic Middle East? The Arab Spring has thrust the ideas and ideology of one man into the centre of this crucial question. Before the revolutions began, Sheikh Rachid Gannouchi lived in Hemel Hempstead and was one of the world's leading Islamist ideologues, urging the Muslim Brotherhood to accommodate modate the ideas of secularism, democracy and acceptance of equal political rights for non-Muslims. But after the region begun to rise up against dictators, he has become even more powerful and his ideas have been tested as never before. He returned to his native Tunisia in 2011 and is now spiritual leader of Tunisia's largest political party, but his influence extends far beyond North Africa. As the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideological brethren try and find a place in a democratic world, his controversial ideas have won acolytes in the Arab World, Turkey and South East Asia.

For Analysis, the BBC Radio 4 series that probes the ideas that shape the world, Owen Bennett-Jones travels to Tunis to meet this controversial thinker and examines his ideas and influence.

The documentary features a full length interview with Sheikh Rachid Gannouchi.

In addition, Owen interviews Dr Maha Azzam, of Chatham House in London; Anas Altikriti, Islamist intellectual and son of the former leader of the Iraqi Muslim Brotherhood; Wan Saiful Wan Jan, a member of the Islamic Party of Malaysia; Abdel Kader Heshimi, leader of a group of Salafi Muslim students in Tunis, and a group of feminist law students in Tunis.

Producer: Mukul Devichand.

The government's brought in new style league tables to help parents choose schools. But do we really know what makes a good school? And how far can schools really transform lives? Researchers have long believed in a so-called 'school effect' that counters, at least in part, factors such as social and family background. But how easy is it to measure this kind of effect, and can parents really be given a clear guide as to which school is best for their child? Or has too much emphasis on factors such as social background made schools complacent about what they can achieve?

Are the champions of the capitalist system now turning against the super-rich? And if they are, what will they now do about it? In this week's Analysis, we meet leading figures of the centre right who suddenly seem to have something in common with the political left: a moral aversion to the an era of high finance that saw huge payouts to a few, and bailouts funded by the rest. Prime Minster David Cameron opened 2011 with a speech criticising a system where "a few at the top get rewards that seem to have nothing to do with the risks they take or the effort they put in." He promises change, but how can that be achieved without undermining the logic of capitalism? Edward Stourton meets influential defenders of market forces who say they can keep the best of free trade but exclude the undeserving rich.

Interviewees:

Jesse Norman MP

Producer: Mukul Devichand.

Certainty: is the lust for it a sin? And if so, should politics fear for its soul? Michael Blastland makes a plea for policy makers to be less sure of themselves in "Dead Cert", originally broadcast on 6 November 2008.