Analysis

Sure Start was one of the flagship policies of the Labour years, and the Coalition Government has just underlined its commitment to keeping it going.

But in this edition of Analysis Fran Abrams asks a question. To many, it's a seriously heretical one: is Sure Start worth saving?

Twelve years and £10 billion since it began, some are still struggling to describe what Sure Start has achieved for children.

No university tuition fees, free personal care for the elderly, reduced prescription charges. In all sorts of ways, Scotland seems to have kept a level of public service the rest of the UK is denied. How has this happened, and can Scotland continue to enjoy this as overall UK spending is cut? Will English resentment grow if Scotland is seen to be enjoying an unfair advantage? Or can the SNP persuade Scots that their economic vision will deliver a public service paradise? And how will all this flow into the increasingly urgent debate about Scotland's constitutional future after the SNP's recent electoral success? Instead of all the theoretical debate about Scottish independence, Anne McElvoy discovers the hard bargaining already underway about who gets the best UK deal, and who pays for it - a deal that will be crucial in deciding whether the UK will survive.

Presenter: Anne McElvoy

Justin Webb, the BBC's former North America Editor, regards the United States with affection and respect. But he is worried that America is in denial about the extent of its financial problems and therefore incapable of dealing with the gravest crisis the country has ever faced.

A decade of tax cuts and increased public spending took the United States from an era of budget surpluses to one of growing deficits. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that federal debt could reach 90 per cent of GDP within a decade. The nation's partisan political culture, argue some, means its leaders are incapable of taking the necessary action to avert financial disaster and a loss of international influence.

Justin Webb examines the consequences of failing to deal with the growing debt and looks for any signs that the United States might start to tackle its problems before it is too late.

Interviewees include Diane Coyle, David Frum, Richard Haass, Jeffrey Sachs and Anne Applebaum.

Producer: Bill Law.

"The eruption of democracy movements across the Middle East and North Africa is, even in its early stages, the most important development of the early 21st century." These were the words of Foreign Secretary William Hague May 2011. Events from Cairo to Benghazi have shaken the very foundations of the Middle East, and with it the West's longstanding friendships with Arab dictators. But what will happen next?

In this week's Analysis, Edward Stourton meets Foreign Secretary Hague and explores the map of the new Middle East as seen from London, Washington and Brussels. Amid the talk of massive economic investment, customs unions, and a newfound support for democratic transition, what will really change in terms of Western relations with the Middle East?

The "Arab Spring" came just as the world began to recover from the 2008 crash -- with oil prices already high. Edward looks at how the economic pressures will shape our policy, and explores divisions within the EU -- with some nations afraid of opening up to the Arab world, while others are pushing for it.

Support for Israel has long been a cornerstone of Western interests in the region, but recent comments by British leaders and the US President about "1967 borders" have left many in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv seething. In the new Middle East, what future do Britain and the US see for Israel and the Palestinians -- and will it change things enough to make a difference?

Western foreign policy on the Middle East has been through massive convulsions -- from die-hard "realism" that saw close relations with dictators to the "neo-conservatism" that called for the invasion of Iraq. So what is now driving our new vision for the region?

Edward Stourton asks if the Egyptian revolution spells the end of old-style Islamism. As groups like the Muslim Brotherhood embrace democracy, how will they - and Egypt - change?

The overthrow of Hosni Mubarak has been described as the Middle East's first "post-Islamic" revolution: there were no religious slogans or chanting in Tahrir Square and the protestors we saw on television were largely young, seemingly secular liberals. But Islam is likely to play a major role in the development of post-revolution Egypt, with the Muslim Brotherhood the biggest and best organised political force in the country.

Edward Stourton asks what kind of society Egypt's Islamists want to create and explores how they are changing as they form political parties and prepare to contest their first fully democratic elections.

Time was when the City of London and the financial services industry generally were the apple of most politicians' eyes. The fabulous wealth they generated and taxes they paid seemed to set Britain on the road to lasting prosperity without having to worry about its manufacturing sector. With the crash, the political consensus has turned. Now, metal-bashing is back in favour and the bankers can do no right. The ritual call, heard at least once a generation, for Britain's economy to be more like Germany's is echoing across the land again.

But is making things rather than financial innovation really the way to make Britain's economy grow faster? When we have a competitive edge in banking and managing money, should we cast it aside? And why should Britain's economy be the same as that of other countries?

Janan Ganesh of the "Economist" asks if we should be turning our back on the goose that has laid our golden eggs for so many years. And, with no immediate signs that manufacturing is taking off on a bountiful new trajectory, considers if we should try to understand the City better and how it can assist Britain grow again.

Producer: Simon Coates.

Is our NHS debate avoiding the key issue? The talk is of another reorganisation of the NHS and greater efficiencies enabling the NHS in England to face the future. But the overall challenge goes much deeper, and the politicians dare not address it. As well as the pressures of demography and inflation in health care costs, the health service faces what it has always faced - public expectation of ever better health care means an ever greater proportion of our national wealth has been spent on health. Now it is said that this must simply stop. But does this hope - one in a long history of so far unrealised hopes -simply obscure the more painful reality. One way or another, privately or publicly, our health care ambitions have to be paid for, and we are failing to decide how.

In 'Unhealthy Expectations' Michael Blastland looks at how this problem has loomed for years but never been faced - at least not in open political debate. He explores what the real choices are if constantly improved care is to be provided - and whether this must mean either much higher personal taxes or a population prepared to pay much directly for care. Or is there a realistic way of squaring the circle of rising demand within fixed budgets?

Labour's traditional working class supporters are abandoning the party in their droves. But can Labour win them back without alienating the middle-class voters it needs to win the next election? David Goodhart explores the tensions between two traditions in the Labour movement - a liberal wing focussed on equality and diversity and a conservative strand that is more concerned with issues of solidarity and community. And he examines the new Blue Labour school of thought, which believes that the best way to unite the two traditions is to rethink the Big State approach that became a defining element of the post-war Labour Party's identity.

The prime minister has proposed a new 'muscular liberalism', aimed at better integrating Britain's Muslims. It aims to counter the alienation that has led to a few young British Muslim men being prepared to mount terrorist attacks. David Walker asks what the new policy will mean on the ground, and how easily it can be reconciled with government plans for more local diversity and faith schools.

Investigative journalist and author Fran Abrams looks at a popular but controversial programme designed to teach children emotional and social skills in schools. The concept of emotional intelligence has almost become a global ideology. It's taught, in one form or another, in around 70% of secondary and 90% of primary schools in England and is popular in Scotland and Wales too. But what exactly is emotional intelligence, can it really be developed and how sound are its scientific claims?

With contributions from:

Dave Read

Professor Roger Weissberg

Professor Katherine Weare

Pupils

Professor Richard Layard

Angela Hutchison

Professor Neil Humphrey