Blind Squirrel Macro - The Pod

Was back on CNBC on Tuesday morning.

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With Carney in the White House today, have we bought the bottom in Canadian energy?

Yes, I still think the ‘deal boys’ have a tough 2025 ahead. Refresher below.

Thanks, as ever, for your support. Squirrel out!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

Recorded 27th March, 2025. Audio-only edition embedded below and also available in the usual ‘Blind Squirrel Macro: The Pod’ podcast feeds.

I have just recorded a fabulous conversation with Craig Coben. The show notes are a bit briefer than normal this week as I wanted the content with you BEFORE Coreweave $CRWV prices (in the next 24 hours).

Introducing Craig

Craig is a veteran capital markets banker. After starting as an attorney at Sullivan and Cromwell, he transitioned into investment banking in the late 1990s at Deutsche Bank (or rather Deutsche Morgan Grenfell as the firm was known at the time). He joined Merrill Lynch in 2005 going on to run the EMEA and later Global Equity Capital Markets businesses of what we now all know as Bank of America.

Since retiring from the sell side 3 years ago, Craig has turned his skills to the keyboard where he has been writing really fantastic columns for the Financial Times’s Alphaville team as well as for Global Capital Magazine, where he is the resident agony aunt for frustrated sell siders.

I really hope you enjoy the conversation as much as I did. I got 20% of the way through my list of questions so we have to have him back on the show soon!

If you get an unexpected call from your sales coverage at Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs today, please listen to this pod before returning that call.

Squirrel out!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

Recorded 19th March, 2025. Audio-only edition embedded below and also available in the usual ‘Blind Squirrel Macro: The Pod’ podcast feeds.

This is the first of what I hope will be a regular chat between the 🐿️ and Leo on the topic of China and Asia-Pac equities.

Topics Covered

* "Made in China 2025" Scorecard: We note that China has achieved significant success in sectors like electric vehicles, high-speed rail, and renewable energy. However, challenges remain in areas such as commercial aircraft and semiconductors.

"Frankly, they've ticked off most of the boxes. So those sort of naysaying the effectiveness of this type of central economic planning when it comes to China, maybe need to take a little bit of pause." - 🐿️

* Consumption: We analyze recent announcements on boosting consumption in China, emphasizing that the government's approach is not about direct stimulus checks but rather about addressing underlying issues like pension reform and childcare support to encourage spending in a society of savers. The sell side wanted explicit numbers to make their modelling tasks easier. That’s not how it works!

"The real limiting factor for the Chinese spending has never been on the income side. It's always been about the propensity to consume." - 🐼

"These sell side models tend to follow price. We're seeing breakouts in quite a number of sectors right now, so I guess it's just a matter of time before the EPS revisions start to snowball up." - 🐿️

* Capital Allocation and Dividends: We speculate about potential changes in capital allocation strategies among well-capitalized consumer companies. We both see the potential for increased dividend payouts and share buybacks in the beverage sector.

"I think we will see capital allocation noise in these very well capitalized consumer players... They're not exactly the most forward-looking institutions out there, but they will catch up." - 🐼

* 🐿️ wonders whether the 50% short interest in the MSCI China ETF $FXI is all just ‘pod shops’ hedging their ‘rented’ trading positions in Alibaba $BABA triggering a rant from Leo about problems with Chinese equity indices.

Follow Leo’s work by clicking on the image below:

A selection of recent China equity pieces from the 🐿️:

Squirrel out!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe