ChinaTalk

By Jordan SchneiderNews Technology Government Politics

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ChinaTalk episodes

June 06, 2024Why America Didn't Invade Taiwan: WWII Lessons for Xi's Invasion
One does not simply invade Taiwan — but George Marshall once thought long and hard about it. In 1944, in the middle of the island-hopping campaign, American war planners set their sights on Japanese-controlled Formosa.
What did the American invasion plan look like? Why did Marshall decide to go another route? What lessons do this and other amphibious invasions hold for Taiwan’s current force posture?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed US Army Field Artillery Lieutenant Colonel J. Kevin McKittrick, currently at the Air War College in Alabama and a veteran of multiple deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Co-hosting today is our resident Taiwan consultant Nicholas Welch.
We discuss:
The US military’s aborted plan to invade Taiwan during WWII;
Why bigger is better when it comes to amphibious assaults;
What the US got right and the CCP gets wrong about civil-military relations;
Taiwan’s defense concept, and the opportunities presented by “operational pause”;
The awful, unending relevance of traditional artillery in modern war;
And why the US doesn’t need its own “rocket force” … yet.

Outtro music: 被動 (Passive) by 伍佰 Wu Bai&China Blue. Youtube Link.
Photo: White House, July 29, 1942. Left to right: Admiral Ernest King, Admiral William Leahy, and General George Marshall. | Wikimedia Commons

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52 min
June 03, 2024Preventing an Invasion of Taiwan
Taiwan’s government agencies are battered by 5 million cyberattacks every day. China is holding invasion drills at a replica of Taiwan’s presidential palace in Inner Mongolia. Last week, the PLA openly rehearsed an encirclement of Taiwan in so-called “punishment drills.”
What happened to deterrence in the Taiwan Strait? Can the status quo be saved?
To discuss strategies for avoiding WWIII, ChinaTalk interviewed Jared McKinney of the Air War College and Peter Harris of Colorado State University, who recently co-authored a monograph entitled, “Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait.”
Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk’s resident Taiwan consultant, Nicholas Welch.
We discuss…
Evidence of deterrence decay in the status quo;
The difference between constraints and restraints, and how they fit together to form a lattice of successful deterrence;
Whether symbolic solidarity with Taiwan does more harm than good;
The values and costs of strategic ambiguity;
How Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture;
Lessons from the dance of death between Iran and Israel;
Objective factors for measuring invasion risk, and whether the world should be scared about 2027;
How to analyze decision trees for fundamentally irrational decisions;
... and more!

Outtro music: MJ116, 辣台妹 (HOT CHICK) - Official music video: MJ116【辣台妹 HOT CHICK】- (youtube link)

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1 hr 33 min
May 28, 2024Sovereign AI
Good AI is good and bad AI is bad, but how do lawmakers tell the difference? Will AI bring the world together or balkanize the internet beyond repair? Why do governments even need cloud computing anyway?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Pablo Chavez, a fellow at CNAS and former Vice President of Google Cloud's Public Policy division, as well as the inestimable investing tycoon Kevin Xu. Xu, formerly of GitHub, is the founder of Interconnected, a bilingual newsletter on the intersections of tech, business, investing, geopolitics, and US-Asia relations.
In this interview, we discuss:
The digital sovereignty movement and the lessons we can learn from China's Great Firewall;
The value and risks of open source architecture in the future of AI governance;
Meta’s long history of open source and how Llama fits into that strategy;
The geopolitical and cultural forces driving nations to pursue their own AI strategies;
The viability of sovereign AI initiatives in the face of global tech giants.

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1 hr 13 min
May 17, 2024AI Roundup: GPT4o, SCSP AI Expo, Open vs Closed
Nathan Lambert of the Interconnects substack and Allen Institute joins for a roundup where we get into:
What DC should understand about the Bay Area AI engineer psyche
What GPT4o and Google's AI Dev Day mean for the future of AI
OpenAI's model spec, and exit, voice, and loyalty in the leading labs

Outtro music: Scarlett Johansson's The Moon Song

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43 min
May 17, 2024 250 Years of US Trade Policy
We're taking one out of the archives!
Douglas Irwin is a Dartmouth professor and the author of Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy. On this episode, Irwin provides an overview to the history of U.S. trade policy from the 18th century to the modern day, highlighting significant legislation as well as the formation of important intergovernmental organizations that have sprung up along the way.
Outro Music: Janis Joplin, Mercedes Benz
19:53: On the flawed logic behind the Tariff Act of 1930, and the parallels with similarly problematic thinking in the modern day: “There’s absolutely a parallel there because some Democrats in Congress said, ‘You know, we ought to really think about this carefully, and not just our domestic interest but also our export interests, and other countries might retaliate.’ And basically, the reaction of most members of Congress was, Republicans at the time, ‘No, we don’t have to worry about that. This is a domestic piece of legislation, it doesn’t really concern other countries. They’re not going to retaliate.’ And, of course, they did.”
39:40: Doug discusses the tips and tricks behind one example of “tariff engineering”: “The tariffs applied to motorcycles with piston displacements of 700cc and above. What Honda started doing is producing a 699cc version. Now the difference [between the two] is imperceptible, but just by changing that one cubic centimeter, it changed the whole tariff treatment and you avoided a 45 percent tariff and were assessed at a much, much lower rate.”

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1 hr 8 min
May 15, 2024 EMERGENCY POD: Biden's Electric Curtain
Brad Setser of CFR talks Biden's new tariffs!
Earlier podcast deep dive on Chinese EV policy: ChinaTalk: Why Chinese EVs Will Take Over the World on Apple Podcasts
Earlier podcast on the deep history of US trade policy: ChinaTalk: Tarriffs, taxes, and trade: Doug Irwin on ChinaEconTalk on Apple Podcasts
Brad's paper: Power and Financial Interdependence (ifri.org)
Outtro Music: Golden Earring's Radar Love
Here's a fun playlist on the best car songs: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6l0sSAdFwyCH1yzQX2IrKQ?si=fb3b8fdd29644631

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1 hr 18 min
May 13, 2024MITRE on S&T Strategy
Charles Clancy is the CTO of MITRE, an American not-for-profit organization managing federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) supporting various US government agencies in defense, healthcare, national security, and cybersecurity fields, among others.
In this interview, we discuss:
What is MITRE and how does it support national science & technology strategy
How China threatens America’s infrastructure and university R&D
The cyber workforce gap and how AI could fill it
Finding mission-driven work for highly skilled technologists
How the ecosystem of S&T and R&D funding evolved through the 20th century to today
Outtro music: Yung Bae, Magic Yung Bae - Magic (youtube.com)

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52 min
May 02, 2024TSMC Takes Arizona
TSMC is taking on Arizona. How's it going? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Viola Zhou, journalist at Rest of World. She has published pieces on Foxconn's quest to make iPhones in India and most recently, a gripping feature about the cultural challenges that TSMC is facing trying to manufacture semiconductors in the USA. Throughout her story, we get a peek into a world of rigid hierarchies, American workers who are slow on the uptake, and culture clash over pornographic desktop flair.
Today’s interview discusses:
Sleuthing techniques for independent journalism;
The challenges faced by Taiwanese semiconductor engineers relocating to Arizona;
TSMC’s management style and the complaints raised by new American employees;
The similarities and differences between TSMC’s expansion to the USA and Foxconn’s expansion to India;
Whether adapting to American work culture will tank the prospects of the new Phoenix Fab.

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46 min
April 25, 2024History and Future of India-China Relations
India’s elections are underway! What does the future hold for the world’s largest democracy? Will the election results impact India-China relations? What about India-US relations?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dr. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore.
Co-hosting today is James Crabtree, author of The Billionaire Raj.
We get into:
What the border disputes between China and India can tell us about the political economy of the two nations;
The anti-imperial history that frames India-China relations;
Modi’s election prospects and India’s spirit of democracy;
What score Biden’s diplomatic team has earned in Southeast Asia;
Criticisms of Modi and accusations of democratic backsliding;
Opportinities for friction in the US-India relationship, including Trump tariffs, immigration, and Russia;
Whether the US is making a “bad bet” on India, and how India is prepared to involve itself during an invasion of Taiwan.

Outtro Music: Jhoome Jo Pathaan Vishal-Shekhar, Arijit Singh, Sukriti Kakar, Vishal Dadlani, Shekhar Ravjiani, Kumaar https://open.spotify.com/track/6FAYpZ4jve8vpvTwUvjK6H?si=66c7c984fd52497cs

12 Bande 12 Bande - song and lyrics by Varinder Brar | Spotify

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1 hr 16 min
April 18, 2024DOJ vs Data Espionage
The DOJ is now charged with protecting American data from foreign adversaries. This new proposed rule they recently issued is, according to one observer, “one of the most ambitious and sweeping new initiatives in national security law over the past few years.”
To discuss, we interviewed Devin DeBacker and Lee Licata of the Department of Justice’s National Security Division.
We get into:
How adversaries plan to weaponize obscure data types — including geolocation data, DNA sequencing, and undersea cable transmissions;
How China managed to purchase genomic data on millions of Americans through healthcare investments;
Why black box data brokers keep records of who goes to casinos;
How the DOJ plans to protect your data, and whether their plans can be thwarted by gridlock in Congress.

I’m excited to introduce a partnership with Policyware to bring affordable, expert-driven policy education to my audience. Starting May 14, Samm Sacks will be teaching a deep dive into China’s Digital Governance and its Global Implications.
Samm is an old friend of mine and a Senior Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. She is a leading expert on China’s cybersecurity legal system, the U.S.-China technology relationship, and the geopolitics of data privacy and cross-border data flows. Check out below a show I did with Samm on ChinaTalk discussing China’s digital governance.
You’ll learn over several weeks as Samm delivers live classes, with options to listen on your own time. Policyware Deep Dives are designed to be attended alongside your job, and they will help you organize with your employer for cost sharing. Check out the show we did together on data issues late last year.
Help support ChinaTalk by registering for the deep dive here and thank you to Policyware for sponsoring today’s episode.

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1 hr 3 min

About ChinaTalk

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Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.