After the global financial crisis, China added a third of global GDP to its bank assets in just eight years... the largest single-country credit expansion in at least a century. 
Today investment is contracting, growth is less than a percent, and the financial system that fueled China's growth is now the thing holding it back.
Logan Wright, partner at Rhodium Group and my former boss, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his new book, Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What It Means for the World. 
Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations co-hosts.
We discuss…
<ul>
 <li>The crisis that already happened: why the September 2021 protests in Evergrande's lobby were China's catharsis moment</li>
 <li>Decay instead of collapse: why credit growth fell from 18% a year to 5%, why Beijing keeps rolling over loans to zombie state firms, and why in China "the path to crisis is reform"</li>
 <li>Jordan and Brad discuss Xi's Perspective: Does supply-chain dominance matter more than GDP?</li>
 <li>Twelve million graduates a year, the youth unemployment numbers that vanished in 2023, why all of China's new strategic industries add up to about 6% of GDP, and why a $10,000 BYD doesn't matter if your kid can't get a job</li>
 <li>Who's paying for China's AI?</li>
</ul>
Plus: Logan's case that the US no longer has a systemic economic rivalry with China, and Brad's pushback that Chinese supply-chain controls have so far beaten Western demand-side leverage Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

After the global financial crisis, China added a third of global GDP to its bank assets in just eight years... the largest single-country credit expansion in at least a century. Today investment is contracting, growth is less than a percent, and the financial system that fueled China's growth is now the thing holding it back. Logan Wright, partner at Rhodium Group and my former boss, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his new book, Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What It Means for the World. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations co-hosts. We discuss… The crisis that already happened: why the September 2021 protests in Evergrande's lobby were China's catharsis moment Decay instead of collapse: why credit growth fell from 18% a year to 5%, why Beijing keeps rolling over loans to zombie state firms, and why in China "the path to crisis is reform" Jordan and Brad discuss Xi's Perspective: Does supply-chain dominance matter more than GDP? Twelve million graduates a year, the youth unemployment numbers that vanished in 2023, why all of China's new strategic industries add up to about 6% of GDP, and why a $10,000 BYD doesn't matter if your kid can't get a job Who's paying for China's AI? Plus: Logan's case that the US no longer has a systemic economic rivalry with China, and Brad's pushback that Chinese supply-chain controls have so far beaten Western demand-side leverage Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After the global financial crisis, China added a third of global GDP to its bank assets in just eight years... the largest single-country credit expansion in at least a century. 
Today investment is contracting, growth is less than a percent, and the financial system that fueled China's growth is now the thing holding it back.
Logan Wright, partner at Rhodium Group and my former boss, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his new book, Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What It Means for the World. 
Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations co-hosts.
We discuss…
<ul>
 <li>The crisis that already happened: why the September 2021 protests in Evergrande's lobby were China's catharsis moment</li>
 <li>Decay instead of collapse: why credit growth fell from 18% a year to 5%, why Beijing keeps rolling over loans to zombie state firms, and why in China "the path to crisis is reform"</li>
 <li>Jordan and Brad discuss Xi's Perspective: Does supply-chain dominance matter more than GDP?</li>
 <li>Twelve million graduates a year, the youth unemployment numbers that vanished in 2023, why all of China's new strategic industries add up to about 6% of GDP, and why a $10,000 BYD doesn't matter if your kid can't get a job</li>
 <li>Who's paying for China's AI?</li>
</ul>
Plus: Logan's case that the US no longer has a systemic economic rivalry with China, and Brad's pushback that Chinese supply-chain controls have so far beaten Western demand-side leverage Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="noopener noreferrer">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

China's Economy is Broken | Logan Wright

OpenAI models mid-training broke out of their sandbox, hacked internal infrastructure, and eventually compromised Hugging Face — the first headline-grade AI breakout, and one that safety researchers saw coming. Is the cyber apocalypse finally on the calendar, or does the industry just need to do its homework?
<a href="">Joshua Saxe</a> spent his formative years as a DARPA and NSA contractor before four years at Meta, where he founded the company’s frontier cyber capabilities evals team and finished as its AI security tech lead. He recently left to co-found <a href="https://www.abundantsecurity.co/">Abundant Security</a>.
We discuss…
<ul>
 <li>What actually happened in the Hugging Face hack, and why AI safety insiders weren’t surprised,
</li>
 <li>The “grad student lab” security culture inside frontier labs racing sixty hours a week to ship,
</li>
 <li>Why the cyber Pearl Harbor predicted since the early 2000s never arrived — and whether swarms of hacking agents finally change that,
</li>
 <li>How nation states will post-train open-weight models like GLM and Kimi into billion-dollar cyber weapons,
</li>
 <li>Why AI has so far favored defenders, from mass bug-squashing to superhuman network monitoring,
</li>
 <li>The industrial economics of cybercrime — kill chains, ransomware divisions of labor, and whether AI gives criminals 100x returns.
</li>
</ul> Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

OpenAI models mid-training broke out of their sandbox, hacked internal infrastructure, and eventually compromised Hugging Face — the first headline-grade AI breakout, and one that safety researchers saw coming. Is the cyber apocalypse finally on the calendar, or does the industry just need to do its homework? Joshua Saxe spent his formative years as a DARPA and NSA contractor before four years at Meta, where he founded the company’s frontier cyber capabilities evals team and finished as its AI security tech lead. He recently left to co-found Abundant Security. We discuss… What actually happened in the Hugging Face hack, and why AI safety insiders weren’t surprised, The “grad student lab” security culture inside frontier labs racing sixty hours a week to ship, Why the cyber Pearl Harbor predicted since the early 2000s never arrived — and whether swarms of hacking agents finally change that, How nation states will post-train open-weight models like GLM and Kimi into billion-dollar cyber weapons, Why AI has so far favored defenders, from mass bug-squashing to superhuman network monitoring, The industrial economics of cybercrime — kill chains, ransomware divisions of labor, and whether AI gives criminals 100x returns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

OpenAI models mid-training broke out of their sandbox, hacked internal infrastructure, and eventually compromised Hugging Face — the first headline-grade AI breakout, and one that safety researchers saw coming. Is the cyber apocalypse finally on the calendar, or does the industry just need to do its homework?
<a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer">Joshua Saxe</a> spent his formative years as a DARPA and NSA contractor before four years at Meta, where he founded the company’s frontier cyber capabilities evals team and finished as its AI security tech lead. He recently left to co-found <a href="https://www.abundantsecurity.co/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Abundant Security</a>.
We discuss…
<ul>
 <li>What actually happened in the Hugging Face hack, and why AI safety insiders weren’t surprised,
</li>
 <li>The “grad student lab” security culture inside frontier labs racing sixty hours a week to ship,
</li>
 <li>Why the cyber Pearl Harbor predicted since the early 2000s never arrived — and whether swarms of hacking agents finally change that,
</li>
 <li>How nation states will post-train open-weight models like GLM and Kimi into billion-dollar cyber weapons,
</li>
 <li>Why AI has so far favored defenders, from mass bug-squashing to superhuman network monitoring,
</li>
 <li>The industrial economics of cybercrime — kill chains, ransomware divisions of labor, and whether AI gives criminals 100x returns.
</li>
</ul> Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="noopener noreferrer">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

Cyber Apocalypse, Now? Hugging Face and the Future of Cyber Risk

ModelTalk regulars <a href="">Nathan Lambert</a>, who writes Interconnects, and writer <a href="">Jasmine Sun</a> join to work through a week in which Dario asked the industry to slow down and Trump called the whole thing a conspiracy.
<ul>
 <li>Why the Hugging Face hack broke through where years of extinction talk didn’t, and how Bernie, Tucker, and Rogan ended up on the same side
</li>
 <li>What “pacing” even means: Nathan’s case that nobody can measure the frontier, and why it still beats “pause”
</li>
 <li>Who gets Slack access: METR’s monopoly on trust, CAISI’s $10 million, jury duty for AI researchers, and why nothing survives without legislation
</li>
 <li>Will China slow down too? Zhipu and Moonshot turning the crank, military secrets leaking into Claude through proxy routers, and the MSS waking up
</li>
 <li>The Sacks clap-back: whether product liability does the job, and what an eighteen-month pause costs in cancer cures and vibe-coding projects
</li>
 <li>Send in Demis! plus Lu Xun as the antidote to Chongqing TikToks, and what DeepSeek’s Chinese name owes to Qu Yuan
</li>
</ul> Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

ModelTalk regulars Nathan Lambert, who writes Interconnects, and writer Jasmine Sun join to work through a week in which Dario asked the industry to slow down and Trump called the whole thing a conspiracy. Why the Hugging Face hack broke through where years of extinction talk didn’t, and how Bernie, Tucker, and Rogan ended up on the same side What “pacing” even means: Nathan’s case that nobody can measure the frontier, and why it still beats “pause” Who gets Slack access: METR’s monopoly on trust, CAISI’s $10 million, jury duty for AI researchers, and why nothing survives without legislation Will China slow down too? Zhipu and Moonshot turning the crank, military secrets leaking into Claude through proxy routers, and the MSS waking up The Sacks clap-back: whether product liability does the job, and what an eighteen-month pause costs in cancer cures and vibe-coding projects Send in Demis! plus Lu Xun as the antidote to Chongqing TikToks, and what DeepSeek’s Chinese name owes to Qu Yuan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ModelTalk regulars <a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nathan Lambert</a>, who writes Interconnects, and writer <a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer">Jasmine Sun</a> join to work through a week in which Dario asked the industry to slow down and Trump called the whole thing a conspiracy.
<ul>
 <li>Why the Hugging Face hack broke through where years of extinction talk didn’t, and how Bernie, Tucker, and Rogan ended up on the same side
</li>
 <li>What “pacing” even means: Nathan’s case that nobody can measure the frontier, and why it still beats “pause”
</li>
 <li>Who gets Slack access: METR’s monopoly on trust, CAISI’s $10 million, jury duty for AI researchers, and why nothing survives without legislation
</li>
 <li>Will China slow down too? Zhipu and Moonshot turning the crank, military secrets leaking into Claude through proxy routers, and the MSS waking up
</li>
 <li>The Sacks clap-back: whether product liability does the job, and what an eighteen-month pause costs in cancer cures and vibe-coding projects
</li>
 <li>Send in Demis! plus Lu Xun as the antidote to Chongqing TikToks, and what DeepSeek’s Chinese name owes to Qu Yuan
</li>
</ul> Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="noopener noreferrer">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

ModelTalk: Pacing the Frontier

<a href="https://www.juliangewirtz.com/">Julian Gewirtz</a>, author and former Biden NSC China director, joins ChinaTalk days before Xi Jinping’s first White House visit since 2015. With little substantive agenda on the table, what is the US getting in exchange for the symbolism and pageantry of a state visit?
 We discuss:
<ul>
 <li>Trump-Xi summit scenarios, Beijing’s management of uncertainty and protocol, and how the script of US-China diplomacy has flipped, with things once seen as American concessions to China now treated as concessions from Beijing;</li>
 <li>Julian’s framework for a K-shaped US-China relationship, with leader-level diplomacy pulling upward while competition pulls downward;</li>
 <li>What Xi’s visit says about the changing political salience of China in the US</li>
 <li>Why Beijing’s public statements on AI risk don’t necessarily tell us how it will handle pacing and safety;</li>
 <li>What the decline of Xi Jinping could mean for a political system and why China’s next succession could be especially difficult to predict;</li>
 <li>China-maxxing from Kissinger to Trump</li>
</ul>
Plus: The Scholars (儒林外史) and why Qing-dynasty satire about corrupt scholars might make you feel better about America in 2026. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

Julian Gewirtz, author and former Biden NSC China director, joins ChinaTalk days before Xi Jinping’s first White House visit since 2015. With little substantive agenda on the table, what is the US getting in exchange for the symbolism and pageantry of a state visit? We discuss: Trump-Xi summit scenarios, Beijing’s management of uncertainty and protocol, and how the script of US-China diplomacy has flipped, with things once seen as American concessions to China now treated as concessions from Beijing; Julian’s framework for a K-shaped US-China relationship, with leader-level diplomacy pulling upward while competition pulls downward; What Xi’s visit says about the changing political salience of China in the US Why Beijing’s public statements on AI risk don’t necessarily tell us how it will handle pacing and safety; What the decline of Xi Jinping could mean for a political system and why China’s next succession could be especially difficult to predict; China-maxxing from Kissinger to Trump Plus: The Scholars (儒林外史) and why Qing-dynasty satire about corrupt scholars might make you feel better about America in 2026. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

<a href="https://www.juliangewirtz.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Julian Gewirtz</a>, author and former Biden NSC China director, joins ChinaTalk days before Xi Jinping’s first White House visit since 2015. With little substantive agenda on the table, what is the US getting in exchange for the symbolism and pageantry of a state visit?
 We discuss:
<ul>
 <li>Trump-Xi summit scenarios, Beijing’s management of uncertainty and protocol, and how the script of US-China diplomacy has flipped, with things once seen as American concessions to China now treated as concessions from Beijing;</li>
 <li>Julian’s framework for a K-shaped US-China relationship, with leader-level diplomacy pulling upward while competition pulls downward;</li>
 <li>What Xi’s visit says about the changing political salience of China in the US</li>
 <li>Why Beijing’s public statements on AI risk don’t necessarily tell us how it will handle pacing and safety;</li>
 <li>What the decline of Xi Jinping could mean for a political system and why China’s next succession could be especially difficult to predict;</li>
 <li>China-maxxing from Kissinger to Trump</li>
</ul>
Plus: The Scholars (儒林外史) and why Qing-dynasty satire about corrupt scholars might make you feel better about America in 2026. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="noopener noreferrer">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

Julian Gewirtz on Trump-Xi Summit, AI, and Mao Dead Fifty Years Ago!

It's a new fiscal year with no new budget, and the Pentagon has a fresh batch of proposals. Two stand out: a four-star Autonomous Warfare Command, built to buy and field autonomous weapons fast, and Project Meridian, a future-of-warfare panel made up of Elon, Palmer, Newt, and Emil Michael.
 Is either the right way to transform the force?
Arthur Tellis, Senior Technology Fellow at the Institute for Progress, joins WarTalk regulars Jordan Schneider, Justin McIntosh, Bryan Clark, and Tony Stark.
We discuss…
<ul>
 <li>The case against Auto WarCom: Justin's argument that centralizing autonomous weapons would slow down the experiments already running in theaters around the world</li>
 <li>Bryan's steelman: a functional command like CYBERCOM or STRATCOM </li>
 <li>Who should command the drones? </li>
 <li>Terrible branding: Tony on why killer drones have so far escaped the culture war</li>
 <li>What happens if Democrats take the House </li>
 <li>Why combatant commands make poor engines of transformation</li>
 <li>Project Meridian: what the board can do that ONA, CAPE, the Defense Science Board, and the FFRDCs can't; why Caesar's wife has to be above suspicion; Elon's belief that stealth is dead; and who the panel should have included instead</li>
 <li>Every base is a target: Operation Spider Web, Europe's low-intensity war with Russia, and why bringing forces home doesn't make them safer</li>
</ul>
Plus: Newt Gingrich's vital signs, the Pope's AI encyclical, Ben Rich and the Nighthawk, Ghost Fleet, the salmon of Joint Base Lewis-McChord, and where everyone would put America's next great military base. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

It's a new fiscal year with no new budget, and the Pentagon has a fresh batch of proposals. Two stand out: a four-star Autonomous Warfare Command, built to buy and field autonomous weapons fast, and Project Meridian, a future-of-warfare panel made up of Elon, Palmer, Newt, and Emil Michael. Is either the right way to transform the force? Arthur Tellis, Senior Technology Fellow at the Institute for Progress, joins WarTalk regulars Jordan Schneider, Justin McIntosh, Bryan Clark, and Tony Stark. We discuss… The case against Auto WarCom: Justin's argument that centralizing autonomous weapons would slow down the experiments already running in theaters around the world Bryan's steelman: a functional command like CYBERCOM or STRATCOM Who should command the drones? Terrible branding: Tony on why killer drones have so far escaped the culture war What happens if Democrats take the House Why combatant commands make poor engines of transformation Project Meridian: what the board can do that ONA, CAPE, the Defense Science Board, and the FFRDCs can't; why Caesar's wife has to be above suspicion; Elon's belief that stealth is dead; and who the panel should have included instead Every base is a target: Operation Spider Web, Europe's low-intensity war with Russia, and why bringing forces home doesn't make them safer Plus: Newt Gingrich's vital signs, the Pope's AI encyclical, Ben Rich and the Nighthawk, Ghost Fleet, the salmon of Joint Base Lewis-McChord, and where everyone would put America's next great military base. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's a new fiscal year with no new budget, and the Pentagon has a fresh batch of proposals. Two stand out: a four-star Autonomous Warfare Command, built to buy and field autonomous weapons fast, and Project Meridian, a future-of-warfare panel made up of Elon, Palmer, Newt, and Emil Michael.
 Is either the right way to transform the force?
Arthur Tellis, Senior Technology Fellow at the Institute for Progress, joins WarTalk regulars Jordan Schneider, Justin McIntosh, Bryan Clark, and Tony Stark.
We discuss…
<ul>
 <li>The case against Auto WarCom: Justin's argument that centralizing autonomous weapons would slow down the experiments already running in theaters around the world</li>
 <li>Bryan's steelman: a functional command like CYBERCOM or STRATCOM </li>
 <li>Who should command the drones? </li>
 <li>Terrible branding: Tony on why killer drones have so far escaped the culture war</li>
 <li>What happens if Democrats take the House </li>
 <li>Why combatant commands make poor engines of transformation</li>
 <li>Project Meridian: what the board can do that ONA, CAPE, the Defense Science Board, and the FFRDCs can't; why Caesar's wife has to be above suspicion; Elon's belief that stealth is dead; and who the panel should have included instead</li>
 <li>Every base is a target: Operation Spider Web, Europe's low-intensity war with Russia, and why bringing forces home doesn't make them safer</li>
</ul>
Plus: Newt Gingrich's vital signs, the Pope's AI encyclical, Ben Rich and the Nighthawk, Ghost Fleet, the salmon of Joint Base Lewis-McChord, and where everyone would put America's next great military base. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="noopener noreferrer">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

WarTalk: AutoWarCom + Project Meridian

Scott Kennedy on Innovation in China by Jordan Schneider <a href="https://open.acast.com/public/patreon/fanSubscribe/1959352">Get bonus content on Patreon</a> See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy">acast.com/privacy</a> for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

Scott Kennedy on Innovation in China by Jordan Schneider Get bonus content on Patreon See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Scott Kennedy on Innovation in China by Jordan Schneider <a href="https://open.acast.com/public/patreon/fanSubscribe/1959352" rel="noopener noreferrer">Get bonus content on Patreon</a> See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer">acast.com/privacy</a> for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="noopener noreferrer">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

Scott Kennedy on Innovation in China

Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.
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Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider. Check out the newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media/

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