东谈西论

韩国总统尹锡悦在12月3日晚上突然宣布全国进入紧急戒严，声称此举是为铲除亲朝鲜势力。然而，在各方强烈反对下，他在六小时内迅速撤销戒严令，但这戒严令已在韩国政坛引发巨大震荡。

反对党随即联合提交对尹锡悦的弹劾动议，但弹劾案在上星期六因未达到全体会议法定表决人数而撤销。大批韩国民众在首尔举行大型抗议集会，要求尹锡悦下台。与此同时，韩国检方宣布已对尹锡悦涉嫌内乱展开调查，他也被禁止出境。

尹锡悦的政治前途是否已走到尽头？这场风波又将如何影响国际社会对韩国的看法？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人吴汉钧与韩国外国语大学孔裕植教授，以及《联合早报》驻首尔通讯员姜贵瑛详细解析宛如韩剧情节的尹锡悦戒严风波。

延伸阅读：

• 分析：颁布戒严令是“韩国民主倒退” 尹锡悦总统大位或不保

• 【早知】尹锡悦玩火造成什么影响？

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's sudden declaration of martial law on December 3 has thrown the nation into political disarray. His attempt to curb pro-North Korean influence was met with swift opposition, resulting in the lifting of martial law within six hours. This upheaval has led to a stalled impeachment motion due to a lack of quorum and mass protests demanding Yoon's resignation. Compounding the situation, Yoon faces a legal investigation for alleged insurrection and is barred from leaving the country. This crisis not only casts doubts on Yoon's political future but also has significant implications for South Korea’s international reputation. 

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Ng Hon Kuan as he delves into this dramatic political saga with Yoosik Kong, Chief Researcher at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies and Kang Gwi Young, Lianhe Zaobao’s Seoul Correspondent.  

Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

中共中央军事委员会委员、军委政治工作部主任苗华，因涉嫌严重违纪被停职检查。中国国防部新闻发言人于上星期四主动对外发布了这一消息。

苗华成为本届中央军委中第二名被处分的委员，也是去年以来落马的多名解放军高级将领之一。在苗华和李尚福之前，前任中国国防部长魏凤和因严重违纪违法，已于去年被立案审查调查。

自去年以来，中国军队展开大规模反腐行动，但高级将领依然前腐后继。苗华被认为是中共总书记习近平提拔的将领，他的落马意味着什么？

这期的联合早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与《联合早报》驻北京记者于泽远详细解析苗华落马对解放军战斗力的影响。

延伸阅读：

• 中共中央军委委员苗华被停职检查 仕途基本终结

• 中国特稿：腐败劣根摘不尽 中国整肃军队路漫漫

China has suspended a top military official Miao Hua and placed him under investigation for “serious violations of discipline”, which are commonly used as a euphemism for corruption in China. 

This development comes amid a sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the Chinese military, which has already seen several high-ranking officials face disciplinary action. 

Admiral Miao Hua is a member of Beijing’s powerful Central Military Commission (CMC). He headed the CMC’s Political Work Department, the top military body’s most important office. Adm Miao, described as a close ally of Chinese President Xi Jinping, is the latest to be scrutinised, raising questions about the broader implications for the People's Liberation Army. 

Join host Han Yonghong and Lianhe Zaobao's China News Copy Editor Yu Zeyuan as they explore the significance of Miao Hua's suspension and its potential impact on China's military strength.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

俄罗斯上星期四向乌克兰东部发射了一枚新型中程弹道导弹。这是一枚最新研制的高超音速导弹，代号“榛树”。

俄罗斯总统普京称，“榛树”能够以10马赫的速度打击目标，它虽然不是战略武器，但其效果和威力可以与战略武器相媲美。普京还表示，当今世界没有任何手段可以对抗这种导弹，也没有任何手段可以拦截它。

普京宣布，“榛树”导弹将在俄军战略导弹部队中投入使用。“榛树”导弹能在12分钟内飞到柏林，飞到罗马只需14分钟，大约17分钟就能到达布鲁塞尔、巴黎，甚至伦敦。

不久前，普京签署了一项法令，批准降低俄罗斯使用核武器的门槛。在这个关键时刻，他又测试新的高超音速中程导弹。普京究竟想要震慑谁？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与《联合早报》驻北京记者于泽远详细解析俄乌战争是否正在朝核武大战的方向进一步迈进？

延伸阅读：

• 沈泽玮：俄乌战千日，中欧持续震荡

• 俄首次在乌使用新型弹道导弹 乌克兰加紧分析残骸

Russia has tested a new intermediate-range ballistic missile in an assault on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The hypersonic missile codenamed Oreshnik (meaning hazel tree in Russian), is reportedly capable of achieving speeds of Mach 10 (10 times the speed of sound), and reaching European capitals within minutes. Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts the missile's unrivaled speed and power, comparing it to strategic weapons despite its classification. Amid these developments, Putin has also lowered the threshold for Russia's use of nuclear weapons, raising global concerns about the potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a nuclear confrontation. 

Join host Han Yonghong and Lianhe Zaobao’s China News Copy Editor Yu Zeyuan in this episode of Global Heartbeat as they delve into the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's latest military maneuvers and the shifting dynamics of international security.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

中国江苏宜兴市无锡工艺职业技术学院上星期六晚间发生校园随机杀人案。根据警方通报，一名21岁的男学生，因考试不合格无法拿到毕业证书，加上对实习报酬不满，回校持刀杀人泄愤，造成八人死亡，17人受伤。

类似的随机杀人案件，中国今年以来已发生至少八九起。11月11日，广东珠海也发生一起驾越野车随机撞人事件，导致35人死亡，43人重伤。

中国最高层下令各地区和有关部门要举一反三，加强风险源头管控。各地也随即展开矛盾纠纷排查化解。然而，这些举措能否真正解决问题，防堵此类悲剧再次发生？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与新加坡国立大学东亚研究所研究员赵力涛及旅居台湾的时事评论人徐全解析接二连三的恶性随机伤人事件有什么共性？中国社会发生了什么事？

延伸阅读：

• 【视频】江苏高校伤人案为今年首例学生犯案 学者：疏导社会压力需减压阀

• 韩咏红：珠海之殇

In a shocking series of events, China has witnessed a spate of random violent incidents, raising concerns about social stability and safety. 

Last Saturday, a stabbing rampage at the Wuxi Vocational Institute of Arts and Technology in the city of Yixing in Jiangsu province, left eight dead and 17 injured.  A 21-year-old student, reportedly driven by academic failure and unpaid internship wages, is blamed for the attack. Just days earlier, a horrific car attack in Zhuhai, Guangdong province, claimed the lives of 35 people and left 43 seriously injured. 

These incidents have prompted China's leadership to call for increased preventative measures and conflict resolution efforts.  However, questions linger about the underlying causes of such violence and the efficacy of these proposed solutions.

This episode of Global Heartbeat podcast delves into these recent tragedies in China, exploring potential societal factors and the challenges of preventing such incidents. Joining host Han Yonghong to analyse these events are Dr. Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute and Taiwan-based commentator Xu Quan.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

美国总统选举结果已经尘埃落定，前总统特朗普大胜，他不仅赢得所有摇摆州的选举人票，普选票也胜过对手哈里斯。

特朗普誓言带领美国进入黄金时代，弥合国家伤口。他在竞选期间公布的政策包括大规模驱逐移民，对中国商品加征关税至60%，对其他国家商品征税10%至20%，而且要欧洲盟友和台湾支付更多“保护费”。

评论人担忧，美国将走回历史上的孤立时代。这会对世界带来什么影响？中国又会如何迎接特朗普治下的“黄金美国”？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与清华大学战略与安全研究中心主任、国际关系学系教授达巍解析特朗普再次当选美国总统对世界的影响。

延伸阅读：

• 吴汉钧：特朗普能否带领美国进入黄金时代？

• 韩咏红：特朗普2.0给中国的危机与机遇

Donald Trump achieved a significant victory in the US election, securing not only the electoral votes of key swing states but also leading his opponent Kamala Harris in the popular vote. Trump vowed to lead America into a “golden age” while addressing national healing. His proposed policies include imposing a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on goods from other countries, alongside demands for increased financial contributions from U.S. allies in exchange for security guarantees. Concerns about a potential shift towards a more isolationist stance under Trump's leadership have been raised, particularly regarding how this might affect global alliances and relations with China. These developments prompt discussions about their implications for international security dynamics. In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yonghong discusses these issues with Professor Da Wei, Director of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

美国总统大选已进入投票日，全世界都在屏息以待选举结果。在投票日前三天，提前邮寄投票的选民已超过7500万。至今，现任副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯与前总统、共和党候选人特朗普的选情依然胶着，互不相让，选举进入割喉战。

两大阵营频出奇招，但也出现了猪队友自乱阵脚的情况。哈里斯引述他人言论，指责特朗普为法西斯分子；拜登则称特朗普的支持者为“垃圾”，引发巨大争议。

越来越多的民调显示，特朗普的胜选几率正在上升。中国的知识界怎么看待特朗普重返白宫的可能性？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与中国复旦大学教授沈丁立深入解析特朗普如果再次当选，是会更加可怕，还是可能带来转机？

延伸阅读：

• 美国总统大选前夕 中国学者预期特朗普赢面更大

• 杨丹旭：美国大选，世界在等

As the world watches with bated breath, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is proving to be one of the most closely contested in recent history. With more than 75 million mail-in votes already cast, the election has entered a critical phase. Both campaigns have resorted to aggressive tactics, sometimes backfiring spectacularly. Adding to the tension, several polls suggest Trump might have an edge, raising questions about what a second Trump presidency would mean for America and the world. In China, intellectuals are closely analysing the potential implications of a Trump return. Would it be a global disaster, or could there be unexpected upsides? In the latest episode of Global Heartbeat, Professor Shen Dingli of Fudan University provides expert insights into the impact of the election outcome on international politics.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

美国民主党总统候选人哈里斯的选情告急。

在刚过去的周末，前总统奥巴马夫人米歇尔亲自下场到关键摇摆州密歇根州，为哈里斯站台助选。米歇尔充满爆发力的演讲让全场气氛燃爆。

另一方面，特朗普在纽约市举行了大型造势晚会，现场挤得水泄不通，有的支持者还连夜在会场外扎营。特朗普在致辞时，呼吁支持者将哈里斯赶出白宫。

距离投票日只剩下一个星期，两位候选人哈里斯和特朗普的选情依然高度胶着。但多份最新民调显示，特朗普的当选几率正在赶超哈里斯。

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与美国德州山姆休士顿州立大学政治系副教授翁履中解析特朗普真的要回来了吗？他会给美国和世界带来什么？在如此激烈的选举后，美国能否实现政权的和平交接？

延伸阅读：

• 国际特稿：经济课题主导美国选情 选民手中一票投给三餐温饱
• 韩咏红：美国总统大选是什么在摇摆？

The US presidential election is down to the wire, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a tight race.  As the clock ticks down to Election Day, both candidates are pulling out all the stops.  Former First Lady Michelle Obama energised Harris supporters in the crucial swing state of Michigan with a rousing speech. Simultaneously, Trump held a massive rally in New York City, demonstrating the enduring fervour of his base. While some recent polls suggest a potential surge for Trump, the race remains too close to call.

Amidst this heated political climate, concerns are mounting over whether the US can ensure a peaceful transition of power following the election. This election carries significant weight, raising crucial questions about the future direction of the US and its role on the global stage. The stakes are high, and the world is watching as the US heads towards a potentially historic election.  

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, Dr. Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, Associate Professor of Political Science at Sam Houston State University, shares his analysis and insights. 

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

韩国情报部门上周公布情报称，朝鲜已经决定向乌克兰战场派遣包括特种部队在内的12,000名兵力，参与俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争。

韩国国情院称，今年8月，首批1,500多名朝鲜特种部队已被送往俄罗斯的符拉迪沃斯托克，也就是中国所称的海参崴。

另一方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基上周告诉媒体，根据他们的情报，朝鲜已经派遣技术人员和军官前往乌克兰被分裂的地区。他也表示，朝鲜准备派遣1万名兵力到战场，这相当于第二个国家正式加入了对乌克兰的战争。自从乌克兰战争爆发以来，朝鲜一直向俄罗斯提供炮弹、导弹和其他武器援助，但尚未大规模派遣军队参战。

朝鲜这次真的准备派兵到前线了吗？如果属实，朝鲜的意图和目的是什么？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与《联合早报》驻北京的记者于泽远详细解析朝鲜的加入将如何影响俄乌战争的局势，乃至东北亚的和平。

Reports of North Korea's potential involvement in the Ukraine war have sent ripples through the international community. South Korean intelligence claims Pyongyang is preparing to send up to 12,000 troops, including special forces, to aid Russia. This claim, while unverified, alleges that an initial contingent of over 1,500 soldiers has already arrived in Vladivostok. The situation has raised alarms, with Ukrainian President Zelensky concerned about another nation entering the fray. The emergence of unverified videos purportedly showing North Korean soldiers receiving equipment from Russian troops has further fueled speculation. 

This development raises critical questions about North Korea's motivations and strategic intentions. The potential consequences of North Korean involvement are far-reaching. It could escalate the conflict, destabilise the region, and exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions, especially in Northeast Asia.

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yonghong and Lianhe Zaobao's China News Copy Editor Yu Zeyuan as they explore the potential implications of North Korea’s military involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

以色列与哈马斯冲突爆发一周年， 加沙地带的暴力冲突仍未消停，以色列的北方邻国黎巴嫩也卷入了战火。 

根据联合国的评估，在一个月内，以色列的攻击已经造成黎巴嫩北部2000人死亡，超过百万人流离失所。

美国、法国以及黎巴嫩的看守政府一直在努力促成停火协议，但都徒劳无功。

以色列总理内坦亚胡在10月6日宣称，以色列目前正同时在七条战线上作战。这些战线涉及不同地点或对象，分别是：加沙的哈马斯、黎巴嫩的真主党、也门的胡塞武装、叙利亚、伊拉克，约旦河西岸的抵抗组织，以及伊朗。

多线作战让以色列国内也遭受攻击，但以色列的军事行动为何仍在继续？国际社会，包括多个大国，都拿以色列没办法。

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和中国著名国际战略专家、中国人民大学国际关系学院退休教授时殷弘详细解析中东战火持续，遭到多国谴责的内坦亚胡到底是赢了，还是输了？

延伸阅读：

• 陈留俊：以色列的“十月冒险”？
• 【东谈西论】中东战争扩大 倒计时开始？

One year after the October 7 attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his country is now fighting on seven fronts. He listed the battlegrounds as Iran, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Shia militants in Iraq, militant groups in Syria as well as Palestinian fighters in the West Bank. 

Despite international efforts to broker a ceasefire, a resolution remains elusive. This multi-pronged approach, while presented as necessary by Netanyahu, has drawn international criticism and raised questions about its long-term effectiveness. Is Netanyahu's strategy a calculated gamble for security, or a dangerous escalation that could spiral out of control?  

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yong Hong and Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, as they discuss the complex dynamics of Middle Eastern geopolitics as well as the implications of Netanyahu's military and political manoeuvres.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

在以色列2023年10月7日遭哈马斯突袭一周年的前夕，以色列在刚过去的周末扩大了对黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特南部的攻势。

战火给处于经济崩溃状态的黎巴嫩人民带来了更大的痛苦。超过100万人流离失所，逃离家园。过去一年间，以色列除了在加沙地带发动持续性的猛烈攻击，也打击了中东地区的敌对力量。这包括以色列在今年7月暗杀了前往伊朗出席新总统就职仪式的哈马斯领导人哈尼亚，9月又通过传呼机和对讲机爆炸袭击，造成数十名黎巴嫩真主党人死亡，数千人受伤。随后，以色列使用了八十余枚钻地弹，炸死了真主党最高领导纳斯鲁拉，并随后对黎巴嫩发起了地面进攻。

伊朗也展开了报复行动。上个星期二，伊朗向以色列发射了180多枚导弹，击中了两座以色列空军基地。

如今，中东地区多处战火纷飞，以色列在多线作战，它的最终目标是什么？它会攻击伊朗的核设施吗？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和台湾中兴大学国际政治研究所所长崔進揆解析中东战争全面扩大的倒计时是否已经开始？

延伸阅读：

• 国际特稿：以哈战火延绵中东 一年灰烬覆盖和平
• 社论：以色列多线开火 中东和局无解

Tensions in the Middle East are reaching a boiling point as Israel marks the first anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack. Over the past year, Israel has intensified its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, further straining the already dire humanitarian situation. With more than a million people displaced in Lebanon, the region faces mounting challenges. Speculation is rife about Israel's intentions, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear facilities, raising questions about the potential for a broader conflict. 

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yong Hong and guest Chin-Kuei Tsui, Associate Professor at Graduate Institute of International Politics (GIIP), National Chung Hsing University, as they analyse the escalating Middle East crisis.  

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

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