Over the last month or two the Wall Street gurus have firmed up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 will finish 2025. The majority have a year-end estimate of between 6400 or 6600, which implies a gain of 9-12 per cent this year. That’s close to the long-term average return from US shares, which is (somewhat ironically) why I think most strategists could turn out to be wide of the mark.