Eurodollar University

Did a recession strike the US economy starting in October? Not just the forgot how to grow kind we’ve been grappling with for the last several years, but the all-out, NBER-style, full-blown contraction. Take a look at the data and the charts in this video, let’s see what you think. And that data is coming from income series the NBER itself uses when it decides the recession question. 

Eurodollar University's Conversation w/ Steve Van Metre

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CEOs Turn Pessimistic About US Economy as Supply Risks Mount
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-28/ceos-turn-pessimistic-about-us-economy-as-supply-risks-mount

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. 

You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Canada just “unexpectedly” fell into a technical recession. But the important part is not just that Canada contracted. The important part is that Canada’s contraction is lining up with the same weakness now spreading through France, the UK, Germany, Sweden, Mexico, and increasingly the rest of the global system. As one result, central bankers hawkishness is starting to seriously evaporate.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:

 https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Starting today, I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. 

You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Private credit has a new problem, and this one is different. For months, the story has been retail investors pulling money from private credit funds. But now we have something else. A Swiss pension fund redeeming shares from a Vista private credit vehicle helped force that fund to limit withdrawals. And that's before asking the question: is software credit the new subprime mortgage?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One Big Private Credit Investor Forced Vista’s Fund to Limit Redemptions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-27/one-big-private-credit-investor-forced-vista-s-fund-to-limit-redemptions

New CLOs at Blackstone, Guggenheim Boast Key Perk: Less Software
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-27/new-clos-at-blackstone-guggenheim-boast-key-perk-less-software

Private Credit’s Exposure to Ailing Software Industry Is Bigger Than Advertised
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-credits-exposure-to-ailing-software-industry-is-bigger-than-advertised-d80da378

Cracks in Private Credit
https://www.goldmansachs.com/pdfs/insights/goldman-sachs-research/cracks-in-private-credit/TOM_private%20credit_Redacted.pdf

Myth-busting: Private credit liquidity
https://blog.landg.com/categories/investment-strategy/myth-busting-private-credit-liquidity/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

JPMorgan just took the Goldilocks off the table. That is not a minor forecast change or some little tweak to a spreadsheet buried on page 47 of a Wall Street outlook. When one of the biggest banks in the world says “Goldilocks is leaving the building” and starts worrying about a **negative growth shock**, what they’re really saying is something big has changed. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:

 https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

'Goldilocks is leaving the building': JPMorgan predicts negative growth shock
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goldilocks-is-leaving-the-building-jpmorgan-predicts-negative-growth-shock/ar-AA24066Q

Sahm Says Sahm Rule Meant To Be Broken
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-08/claudia-sahm-says-the-sahm-rule-was-meant-to-be-broken-video

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Home prices are now doing something they were not supposed to do. After years of being told that housing was poised to make a strong comeback and that prices were going to accelerate upward, the latest national housing data is saying something very different: the lowest price rate in fourteen years, going all the way back to the bottom of the Big Housing Bust in 2012.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For the first time in this cycle, the money going out of major private credit vehicles has surpassed the money coming in. That is the headline, how private credit machine is now facing sustained investor outflows. Stage 2. And here’s the other big part of that – these net outflows are indeed forcing asset sales onto an industry that was never really built for this. That means we’re already deeper into Stage 2 than most people would think.  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:

 https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Private Credit BDC Redemptions Exceed Fundraising for First Time
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-14/private-credit-bdc-redemptions-exceed-fundraising-for-first-time

Private Credit’s Unthinkable Becomes Reality as Trading Revs Up
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-21/private-credit-s-unthinkable-becomes-reality-as-trading-revs-up

Fitch Ratings’ U.S. Private Credit Default Rate Hits a High of 6.0% in April 2026
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-ratings-us-private-credit-default-rate-hits-high-of-6-0-in-april-2026-18-05-2026?cs=0&hl=en-US&biw=1600&bih=731

Private Credit Fund Touts Quick Profit Buying Debt at 65 Cents
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/private-credit-fund-touts-quick-profit-buying-debt-at-65-cents

Goldman Sachs Private Credit Fund’s Share of Bad Loans Rises
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/goldman-sachs-private-credit-fund-s-share-of-bad-loans-increases

HSBC Drags Feet on $4 Billion Private Credit Investment Effort
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/hsbc-drags-feet-on-4-billion-private-credit-investment-effort

AMP Trims ‘Frothy’ Private Credit Assets in Investment Pivot
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-18/amp-trims-frothy-private-credit-assets-in-investment-pivot

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While rumors and reports swirl about a possible Iran deal, the clock is still ticking for an economy that’s way too close to the point of no return on the energy shock. In fact, for Europe, there is a nontrivial chance it’s already gone past. With the latest data out on Friday, the economic numbers for May so far got slammed. It increasingly looks like Europe may have already gone over the cliff with S&P describing France as in a quote “dire” situation.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. 

Or go even deeper with our Deep Dive Analysis. Get all the tools to fill in the huge gaps you didn't even know were there. 
Click the link to visit https://eurodollar.university/memberships and join today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPG France May 2026 PMI
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f0ad28c72bfd49949cf67d52daf16aee

SPG Eurozone May 2026 PMI
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cfc7983038764cd0bf61ed86b6d27a52

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The dollar is rising again, and this time the pressure is showing up right across Asia. The Japanese yen is weak.  The South Korean won is tumbling.  The Indonesian rupiah is crashing. The Indian rupee keeps finding new ways to give officials fits. At the same time the dollar is rising against these Asian currencies, the very front of the U.S. dollar interest-rate market is doing something absolutely incredible. Shocking even. Completely the opposite of what you’d think. And here’s the thing – these two developments are related. Why the dollar is hammering Asia most of all and how that would play out in rates. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Lowe’s had some more bad news about the American consumer. CEO Marvin Ellison said “This has been the most difficult housing market that I have faced in this business since the financial crisis.” Lowe’s is hardly alone. Walmart said higher income shoppers are still trading down while lower income Americans are, well, they’re running out of their tax refund money. And then there is Kroger. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:

 https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flash PMI signals subdued growth in May amid price surge
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/d7a15ea4f43c4e3493db3814db67ad99

Lowe's CEO says this is the 'most difficult housing market' since the financial crisis
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/lowes-ceo-says-this-is-the-most-difficult-housing-market-since-the-financial-crisis-170512082.html

Kroger Plans Biggest Price Cuts In Years to Take On Walmart, Costco
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-21/kroger-plans-biggest-price-cuts-in-years-to-take-on-walmart-costco

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. 

You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Treasury yields have finally made a sizable move upward. The 2-year Treasury has pushed to new multi-month highs. The 10-year got as high as 4.70%. And instantly, the usual question shows up:
Is the bond market finally repricing real inflation risk? Or is this another hurricane warning where everyone looks at the headline number, panics for five minutes, and misses what the curve is actually saying? Make that curve-S.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU