Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 169

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast!

I am just getting back from talking at the Ag Risk Management event in Menomonie, WI and I fly out tonight to speak at the Farmland Partners Tenant Event in Denver.  On today’s podcast I go over the macro markets, spend a little time on grains, but then we get deep into the US/China trade war.  In my opinion, it can all be explained by Total Factor Productivity and how the US now sees China as their #1 rival globally when it comes to politics, economics, and the military.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

New Crop Corn & Soybean Acres

Informa came out with estimated acres and pegged soybeans at 86.2mm and corn at 91.5mm.  Based on the conversations I’ve had with farmers since the new year I tend to agree with these numbers.  91.5mm acres and  178 trend line yield keeps corn under 2.0 billion carryout, which I think is neutral.  It can be bullish with more export demand and spring planting/summer weather issues.  86.2mm for soybeans with a 50 trend line yield puts new crop ending stocks around 600.  Not great.  That is already factoring in the 5mm mt of new Chinese demand.  However, if a US/China deal gets done and China buys another 5mm mt of old crop, then ending stocks for beans are between 450 and 500mm with a trend line yield.  That at least has some potential for soybeans to rally in the spring and summer with weather issues.  We could even see $10 for new crop under the right conditions.

I am only in the office 1 day this week so this newsletter is going to be short.  Take a listen to the podcast and we’ll be back to our regular schedule and newsletter next week.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 169

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast!

I am just getting back from talking at the Ag Risk Management event in Menomonie, WI and I fly out tonight to speak at the Farmland Partners Tenant Event in Denver.  On today’s podcast I go over the macro markets, spend a little time on grains, but then we get deep into the US/China trade war.  In my opinion, it can all be explained by Total Factor Productivity and how the US now sees China as their #1 rival globally when it comes to politics, economics, and the military.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

New Crop Corn & Soybean Acres

Informa came out with estimated acres and pegged soybeans at 86.2mm and corn at 91.5mm.  Based on the conversations I’ve had with farmers since the new year I tend to agree with these numbers.  91.5mm acres and  178 trend line yield keeps corn under 2.0 billion carryout, which I think is neutral.  It can be bullish with more export demand and spring planting/summer weather issues.  86.2mm for soybeans with a 50 trend line yield puts new crop ending stocks around 600.  Not great.  That is already factoring in the 5mm mt of new Chinese demand.  However, if a US/China deal gets done and China buys another 5mm mt of old crop, then ending stocks for beans are between 450 and 500mm with a trend line yield.  That at least has some potential for soybeans to rally in the spring and summer with weather issues.  We could even see $10 for new crop under the right conditions.

I am only in the office 1 day this week so this newsletter is going to be short.  Take a listen to the podcast and we’ll be back to our regular schedule and newsletter next week.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 168

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast!

In this week’s podcast we go over our thoughts on the stock market and why it tends to have a bullish bias over time. We talk about the range bound nature in crude oil and why we might be seeing some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” in Natural Gas next week.  We dive into why cocoa and sugar might be bearish while coffee has more potential as a bull market.  Then we wrap up with why we need corn to gain on soybeans for new acres and what to look for in hogs and cattle.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Macro Markets

The US government continues the shutdown and we do not see an end in sight.  No CFTC CoT reports and no USDA reports.  The US/China trade delegation will not get back together until the end of January.  The big news today (and probably this week) is the Brexit vote today!   The vote is about 1pm Chicago time and all the traders will be waiting for the outcome.

Energy

We think the lows are in for crude oil, the market bias is higher, but we will still be in a trading range between $48 and $58 in the near term.  We wrote about short iron condors and short straddles in Turner’s Take Market Alert today.  I still like the bull futures spreads in crude. I don’t think the financial markets are crashing. I think the market has had to reprice assets based on lower than expected growth in 2019.  The market has done that. From here I think we trade in range with a bias to go higher.

The big story today for crude is the first cargoes are going to China from the US since the trade tariffs started.

We talked about Natural Gas last week forming a bottom and a cold weather spell away from trading higher into that gap. That happened faster than we thought!  Next week we some some potential for “buy the rumor/sell the fact” if the cold weather is foretasted for the end of January.  The forecasts will have to show colder temps for Feb too in order for the NG rally to continue.

Expected Crude Oil Range

Natural Gas

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Twitter:

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 168

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast!

In this week’s podcast we go over our thoughts on the stock market and why it tends to have a bullish bias over time. We talk about the range bound nature in crude oil and why we might be seeing some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” in Natural Gas next week.  We dive into why cocoa and sugar might be bearish while coffee has more potential as a bull market.  Then we wrap up with why we need corn to gain on soybeans for new acres and what to look for in hogs and cattle.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Macro Markets

The US government continues the shutdown and we do not see an end in sight.  No CFTC CoT reports and no USDA reports.  The US/China trade delegation will not get back together until the end of January.  The big news today (and probably this week) is the Brexit vote today!   The vote is about 1pm Chicago time and all the traders will be waiting for the outcome.

Energy

We think the lows are in for crude oil, the market bias is higher, but we will still be in a trading range between $48 and $58 in the near term.  We wrote about short iron condors and short straddles in Turner’s Take Market Alert today.  I still like the bull futures spreads in crude. I don’t think the financial markets are crashing. I think the market has had to reprice assets based on lower than expected growth in 2019.  The market has done that. From here I think we trade in range with a bias to go higher.

The big story today for crude is the first cargoes are going to China from the US since the trade tariffs started.

We talked about Natural Gas last week forming a bottom and a cold weather spell away from trading higher into that gap. That happened faster than we thought!  Next week we some some potential for “buy the rumor/sell the fact” if the cold weather is foretasted for the end of January.  The forecasts will have to show colder temps for Feb too in order for the NG rally to continue.

Expected Crude Oil Range

Natural Gas

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 167

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast!

We are now in the first full week of trading in 2019 and the markets are trading higher for the most part.  The US dollar is down and metals are struggling a bit, but the stock market, crude, grains, and livestock are generally higher.  We go over all the major futures market sectors and give our opinions for each in the latest episode!

Macro Markets

The US-China trade talks seem to be going well. The best article I’ve read about it recently is from the South China Morning Post.  This should be supportive for the markets as it is good for US growth, global growth, and US exports.  The US government shutdown is a bearish factor on the markets but many traders are shrugging it off. About 25% of the government is closed but many of the “essential” services are open.  Apparently the CFTC and the USDA are considered “non-essential”.

Natural Gas

March Natural Gas rallied to over $4.00 in Nov and Dec only to come back down to $2.80 support levels.  Winter has been unseasonably warm but we should have colder temperatures in Jan and Feb. The Cullen Outlook highlighted NG this week and I like getting NG long to oat these levels and that gap on the chart looks like a good target.

March Natural Gas

Coffee

Technically it looks like coffee double bottomed and then broke the red trend line.  Fundamentally Brazil and Vietnam are having some production issues and we may see global stock decline this year after years of gains.  I like coffee as long as we stay above the 99 level (blue line below).  A short covering rally combined with better demand and continued weather issues in Brazil has the potential to send coffee to 1.14 and then finally 1.26.

March Coffee

Corn

Below is my corn supply and demand table for old crop and new crop. This is part of my Turner’s Take Ag Marketing service.  Right now we have old crop at 1781mm bushels but I think it can be 1.6 to 1.7 billion when the USDA opens back up and releases the next WASDE.  That should be supportive of old crop.  Corn yield loss in South America has the potential to rally March Corn in the upper $3.80s or lower $3.90s.  At those levels we expect a lot of farm sales as old crop is plentiful in the country and farmers need to make sales.

The next three columns show projections for new crop corn.  The most bullish scenario we have right now is 91mm acres and a 175 yield.  The most bearish is 93mm acres and a 181 yield.  We do this to figure out a realistic price range for 2019 corn.  Traders and hedgers who want to get more in depth about this table and how we trade and hedge around these expectation should give us a call and we can talk about it.  As market conditions change I update the tables and the expected price ranges, so if you are a client at Daniels Trading you should get access to Turner’s Take Ag Marketing.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 167

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast!

We are now in the first full week of trading in 2019 and the markets are trading higher for the most part.  The US dollar is down and metals are struggling a bit, but the stock market, crude, grains, and livestock are generally higher.  We go over all the major futures market sectors and give our opinions for each in the latest episode!

Macro Markets

The US-China trade talks seem to be going well. The best article I’ve read about it recently is from the South China Morning Post.  This should be supportive for the markets as it is good for US growth, global growth, and US exports.  The US government shutdown is a bearish factor on the markets but many traders are shrugging it off. About 25% of the government is closed but many of the “essential” services are open.  Apparently the CFTC and the USDA are considered “non-essential”.

Natural Gas

March Natural Gas rallied to over $4.00 in Nov and Dec only to come back down to $2.80 support levels.  Winter has been unseasonably warm but we should have colder temperatures in Jan and Feb. The Cullen Outlook highlighted NG this week and I like getting NG long to oat these levels and that gap on the chart looks like a good target.

March Natural Gas

Coffee

Technically it looks like coffee double bottomed and then broke the red trend line.  Fundamentally Brazil and Vietnam are having some production issues and we may see global stock decline this year after years of gains.  I like coffee as long as we stay above the 99 level (blue line below).  A short covering rally combined with better demand and continued weather issues in Brazil has the potential to send coffee to 1.14 and then finally 1.26.

March Coffee

Corn

Below is my corn supply and demand table for old crop and new crop. This is part of my Turner’s Take Ag Marketing service.  Right now we have old crop at 1781mm bushels but I think it can be 1.6 to 1.7 billion when the USDA opens back up and releases the next WASDE.  That should be supportive of old crop.  Corn yield loss in South America has the potential to rally March Corn in the upper $3.80s or lower $3.90s.  At those levels we expect a lot of farm sales as old crop is plentiful in the country and farmers need to make sales.

The next three columns show projections for new crop corn.  The most bullish scenario we have right now is 91mm acres and a 175 yield.  The most bearish is 93mm acres and a 181 yield.  We do this to figure out a realistic price range for 2019 corn.  Traders and hedgers who want to get more in depth about this table and how we trade and hedge around these expectation should give us a call and we can talk about it.  As market conditions change I update the tables and the expected price ranges, so if you are a client at Daniels Trading you should get access to Turner’s Take Ag Marketing.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 166

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year! Today is the last trading day of the year and it should be relatively quiet.  President Trump over the weekend tweeted that the US and China are making “big progress” on trade talks.  China says they are willing to meet the US “half way” on the Intellectual Property disputes.  We are also waiting on China to buy more ag products from the US. The market expects another 2mm mt of soybean purchases.

We are in the 2nd week of the US government shutdown and no one expects this to get resolved this week.  There are not enough congressmen in DC right now to get a deal or a vote done so we are looking at next week at best.

On the podcast today I talk about all the major commodity futures markets and in 2019 I plan to talk more about the stock market, currencies, softs, and metals.  The podcast will still focus on grains and livestock, but there is room to talk about some of the other markets too.

Have a great New Year and I’ll be talking with you soon in 2019!

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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 166

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year! Today is the last trading day of the year and it should be relatively quiet.  President Trump over the weekend tweeted that the US and China are making “big progress” on trade talks.  China says they are willing to meet the US “half way” on the Intellectual Property disputes.  We are also waiting on China to buy more ag products from the US. The market expects another 2mm mt of soybean purchases.

We are in the 2nd week of the US government shutdown and no one expects this to get resolved this week.  There are not enough congressmen in DC right now to get a deal or a vote done so we are looking at next week at best.

On the podcast today I talk about all the major commodity futures markets and in 2019 I plan to talk more about the stock market, currencies, softs, and metals.  The podcast will still focus on grains and livestock, but there is room to talk about some of the other markets too.

Have a great New Year and I’ll be talking with you soon in 2019!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 165

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

HOLIDAY MARKETS

The holiday markets have been all over the place during the past few trading sessions.  Today we are getting a relief rally and it remains to be seen if this is a true reversal.  The problem is the low volume.  One can make the argument we probably went down to much during low volume last week and Christmas Eve and now we are coming up too fast on low volume today.  That is how it is around the holidays if the market is volatile.

Below are charts for the S&P and Crude Oil.  You can make the case those markets are reversing.  We spent 1 day in Bear Market territory for the S&P 500.  On the podcast I talk about my time at the Stock Exchange and Goldman Sachs when I was in my 20s.  No one senior who made big money decisions was in the office the last week or two of the year (same for the last two weeks in August).  It will be interesting to see how the markets trade on Wednesday, January 2nd.  Until them we are likely to see the volatility continue.

Finally – a quick word about the grain markets.  The government shutdown is going to put a hamper on corn, wheat, and soybeans.  Those markets either need weather issues to go higher or demand.  The USDA confirms demand by their export sales announcements. I am not 100% sure if that part of the USDA is considered “essential”.  We may have to wait a while to hear about exports and sales.  That is not good for the bulls.

Emini S&P 500

Crude Oil

 

 

 

 

 

hbspt.cta.load(2022783, ‘aa656e8e-c64a-469e-93e8-45612ef5d6d9’, {});

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 165

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

HOLIDAY MARKETS

The holiday markets have been all over the place during the past few trading sessions.  Today we are getting a relief rally and it remains to be seen if this is a true reversal.  The problem is the low volume.  One can make the argument we probably went down to much during low volume last week and Christmas Eve and now we are coming up too fast on low volume today.  That is how it is around the holidays if the market is volatile.

Below are charts for the S&P and Crude Oil.  You can make the case those markets are reversing.  We spent 1 day in Bear Market territory for the S&P 500.  On the podcast I talk about my time at the Stock Exchange and Goldman Sachs when I was in my 20s.  No one senior who made big money decisions was in the office the last week or two of the year (same for the last two weeks in August).  It will be interesting to see how the markets trade on Wednesday, January 2nd.  Until them we are likely to see the volatility continue.

Finally – a quick word about the grain markets.  The government shutdown is going to put a hamper on corn, wheat, and soybeans.  Those markets either need weather issues to go higher or demand.  The USDA confirms demand by their export sales announcements. I am not 100% sure if that part of the USDA is considered “essential”.  We may have to wait a while to hear about exports and sales.  That is not good for the bulls.

Emini S&P 500

Crude Oil

 

 

 

 

 

hbspt.cta.load(2022783, ‘aa656e8e-c64a-469e-93e8-45612ef5d6d9’, {});

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner