Grand Tamasha

In a few weeks, climate negotiators from around the world will descend on Glasgow, Scotland, for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP 26. 

Amid dire warnings from climate scientists about our warming planet and desperate calls for stepped-up action, India finds itself at the center of the conversation. At home, Indians are debating how to tackle climate change without hampering an economy that has started to slowly recover from the COVID pandemic.   

To discuss India’s options and the path forward, Milan is joined on  this week’s show by Jayant Sinha, a key figure in India’s ongoing climate change debate. Jayant is a member of Parliament from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the chairperson for the Standing Committee on Finance. He’s also authored or co-authored several publications advocating for India to adopt a net-zero approach.

Milan and Jayant discuss possible pathways for India’s future carbon emissions, the arguments for and against a net-zero approach, and what lessons India can draw from international experience. Plus, the two discuss what responsibilities countries like the United State have when it comes to helping India and other developing countries address the climate challenge. 

1. Chloe Farand, “Indian lawmaker submits private bill to achieve net zero emissions by 2050,” Climate Home News, March 18, 2021. 
2. Jayant Sinha, “India's search for greener pastures should end in a climate change law,” Economic Times, March 10, 2021
3. Jayant Sinha et al., Getting to the Green Frontier, Observer Research Foundation, 2020.
4. Jayant Sinha and Anshu Bhardwaj, “The many paths to a greener future,” Business Standard, July 22, 2021

French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot’s new book, Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy, is a comprehensive exploration of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi—its origins, policies, philosophy, and relationship to democracy. 

Patrick Heller of Brown University calls the book “the most detailed, theoretically sophisticated, and comprehensive analysis of the rise of Modi’s BJP as a dominant electoral force.”

Christophe joins Milan on the podcast to talk about Modi’s rise to national prominence, his relationship with the Sangh Parivar, and the constraints that exist on his power. Plus, the two discuss the state of individual freedoms in India today and why Christophe believes that the BJP dominance under Modi represents a new political system in India, rather than just a new party system.

Episode notes:

1. Christophe Jaffrelot and Pratinav Anil, India’s First Dictatorship: The Emergency, 1975-77 (Oxford University Press, 2021).
2. Angana P. Chatterji, Thomas Blom Hansen, and Christophe Jaffrelot, eds., Majoritarian State: How Hindu Nationalism is Changing India (Oxford University Press, 2019).
3. “Christophe Jaffrelot on India’s First Dictatorship,” Grand Tamasha, April 13, 2021.

Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his maiden visit to Washington under the new Biden administration. It was all sunlight and good vibes and—for a week—American and Indian policymakers ignored the fact that a darkening cloud is gathering over U.S.-India relations in the form of potential U.S. sanctions. 

Milan’s guest on the show this week, political scientist Sameer Lalwani, thinks that this threat of sanctions is very much real. Sameer is a senior fellow in Asia strategy at the Stimson Center in Washington and an expert on issues ranging from nuclear deterrence to national security decision and counterinsurgency. 

Sameer and Milan discuss how India might run afoul of the U.S. Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), what the Biden administration might do to avoid a crisis in bilateral relations, and how India might help its own case. Plus, the two discuss how the fallout in Afghanistan will affect India-Pakistan relations and the prospect of future violence between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

1. Sameer Lalwani, “What India can do to avoid US sanctions over Russia,” Hindustan Times, September 22, 2021.
2. Sameer Lalwani, “Strategizing to Exit Afghanistan: From Risk Avoidance to Risk Management,” War on the Rocks, March 29, 2021. 
3. Sameer Lalwani and Tyler Sagerstrom, “What the India–Russia Defence Partnership Means for US Policy,” Survival (2021).
4. Sameer Lalwani, Frank O’Donnell, Tyler Sagerstrom, and Akriti Vasudeva, “The Influence of Arms: Explaining the Durability of India–Russia Alignment,” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, January 15, 2021.
5. Sameer Lalwani, “America Can’t Ignore the Next Indo-Pakistani Crisis,” War on the Rocks, February 26, 2021. 
6. Ashley J. Tellis, “The Biden-Modi Summit and the Future of U.S.-India Relations,” Grand Tamasha, September 21, 2021.

This week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Washington for his first in-person meeting in the American capital with U.S. President Joe Biden. Modi, Biden, and the leaders of Australia and Japan will also be gathering for an in-person edition of the Quad Leader’s summit. 

To understand what’s on the agenda and what it means for the United States and for India, Milan is joined this week by Ashley J. Tellis. Ashley holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at Carnegie.

Milan and Ashley discuss the agenda for the coming Biden-Modi summit, turbulence in U.S.-India relations, and whether the Quad is paying dividends. Plus, the two speak about the impact of regime change in Afghanistan on India, on U.S.-Pakistan ties, and the future of U.S.-India cooperation in the region.
 

1. Evan S. Medeiros and Ashley J. Tellis, “Regime Change Is Not an Option in China,” Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2021.
2. Ashley J. Tellis, “Well Begun Is Half Done? Managing U.S.-India Relations,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 27, 2021.
3. Ashley J. Tellis interview with Karan Thapar, “Taliban Win Big Setback for India but India’s Importance for US Has Sharply Increased,”The Wire, September 7, 2021.

It’s been a month since the fall of Kabul and the sudden Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. In the intervening weeks, policymakers the world over have been scrambling to understand the reasons for the sudden collapse of the Afghan government, the real aims of the new Taliban regime, and the geopolitical implications of this crisis for the region AND for the world.

To kick off the sixth season of Grand Tamasha, this week Milan is joined by Avinash Paliwal to discuss what these developments mean for India. Avinash is a senior lecturer in international relations and deputy director of the SOAS South Asia Institute. His book, My Enemy’s Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal, is one of the best guides we have to understanding India’s role in Afghanistan.

Milan speaks with Avinash about the notion of a “Taliban 2.0”, the composition of the new Taliban government, the divisions within the Pakistani establishment, and India’s back-channel talks with the Taliban. Plus, the two of them discuss what the crisis means for U.S.-India relations and India’s counterterrorism priorities. 

Episode notes:

1. Avinash Paliwal, “A strategic shock for the subcontinent,” Hindustan Times, August 25, 2021.
2. Stephanie Findlay and Amy Kazmin, “Taliban cabinet shows west has little leverage over Afghanistan’s new rulers,” Financial Times, September 8, 2021.
3. Devirupa Mitra, “India's New Visa Policy for Afghans Is in Limbo, Leaving Thousands Tense,” The Wire, September 7, 2021.
4. Amy Kazmin, “Taliban mount charm offensive to win Afghans’ trust,” Financial Times, September 3, 2021.

One year ago, Chinese and Indian forces traded blows in the remote Galwan Valley—resulting in the first deaths along the Line of Actual Control since 1975. Months later, India would be hit by the coronavirus, whose precise origin story in China we still do not fully understand. Indian public opinion towards China has soured and Beijing has nervously watched India double-down on its engagement with the so-called “Quad.”

It’s against this backdrop that the scholar Kanti Bajpai has released a timely new book, India Versus China: Why They Are Not Friends. Kanti is the Director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation and Wilmar Professor of Asian Studies at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore and he joins Milan on the podcast this week.

The two discuss the untold pre-history of the Chinese-Indian rivalry, the sources of the trust deficit between the two countries, and China’s surprising soft power advantage. Plus, the two discuss possible scenarios for China-India conflict and India’s pressing domestic reforms agenda. 

1. Grand Tamasha, “Darshana Baruah on the Indian Ocean Imperative,” April 6, 2021
2. Grand Tamasha, “Ananth Krishnan on What China’s Rise Means for India,” October 20, 2020
3. Grand Tamasha, “Ashley J. Tellis on India’s China Conundrum,” September 22, 2020
4. “Off the Cuff with Kanti Bajpai,” ThePrint
5. Kanti Bajpai, “Why does China consistently beat India on soft power?” Indian Express, June 23, 2021

Over the last two-and-a-half years, Milan and his guests have spent a lot of time on the podcast talking about some of the biggest questions facing Indian society. What is driving an increase in religious nationalism? To what extent is religious intolerance on the rise? Is caste morphing from a marker of hierarchy to a marker of difference? And what, if anything, does it mean to be truly Indian?

These are just some of the questions a landmark new study by the Pew Research Center—released today—asks and answers, drawing on an important new survey of religion, identity, and belonging. On the show this week, Milan is joined by Neha Sahgal, associate director of research at Pew and one of the lead investigators of this new work. 

Milan and Neha discuss the coexistence of religious tolerance and religious segregation in India, the salience of caste identity and Hindu nationalism, and the evidence for “secularization theory.” Plus, the two discuss why South India is an outlier in many respects and what larger lessons the study holds for Indian democracy. 

1. Neha Sahgal et al,"Religion in India: Tolerance and Segregation," Pew Research Center.

Note: Milan’s interview with Arora Akanksha took place on June 18. On June 19, the United Nations General Assembly formally approved a second term for the incumbent António Guterres—officially bringing the selection process to a close. 

Earlier this month, the United Nations Security Council recommended the reelection of António Guterres as secretary-general, virtually assuring the Portuguese leader a second term at the helm of one of the world’s most consequential bodies. 

But not everyone is standing by to coronate Mr. Guterres. Arora Akanksha—a Canadian citizen of Indian heritage—is running an insurgent campaign to unseat the incumbent Secretary-General. Her campaign has attracted attention—not only for its boldness—but also because Ms. Akanksha has spent the last several years toiling inside the UN and has been unafraid to call out its shortcomings from within.

Arora joins Milan on the podcast this week. The two of them discuss her north Indian roots, circuitous path to the UN, and unlikely decision to run for the UN’s top job. Plus, the two discuss Arora’s diagnosis of what ails the UN and her priorities for reform.  

1. Rick Gladstone, “Who Is Arora Akanksha, the 34-Year-Old Running for U.N. Secretary General?” New York Times
2. Adam Iscoe, “On the Secret Campaign Trail to Lead the U.N.” New Yorker
3. Stephanie Fillion, “A Millennial UN Staffer Who Is Daring to Run Against Secretary-General António Guterres,” PassBlue

In India, there are growing signs that the country is slowly exiting the second wave of the COVID crisis as people get back to work, localities lift lockdown restrictions, and markets reopen. But the second wave leaves behind a trail of devastation, loss, and widespread anger. And Indians may not have much time to enjoy a return to normalcy, as government officials are already warning of a third wave of the virus.

To discuss where things stand in India today, Milan is joined Niha Masih, a Delhi-based correspondent for the Washington Post. Niha reflects on her family’s struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic, the mental toll the pandemic has taken, and the under-reported challenges rural India faces. Plus, the two discuss the Indian government’s new vaccine policy and the political implications of the crisis for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

1. Niha Masih, “My whole family was infected in India’s devastating coronavirus surge. Not all survived,” Washington Post
2. Niha Masih and Taniya Dutta, “As India’s pandemic surge eases, a race begins to prepare for a possible next wave,” Washington Post
3. Niha Masih, “India’s coronavirus crisis spreads to its villages, where health care is hard to find,” Washington Post
4. Joanna Slater, Niha Masih, and Shams Irfan, “In an Indian city, obituaries reveal missing coronavirus deaths and untold suffering,” Washington Post
5. Joanna Slater and Niha Masih, “In India’s devastating coronavirus surge, anger at Modi grows,” Washington Post
6. Milan Vaishnav, “Will voters hold Modi to account for India’s covid-19 crisis? Don’t bet on it,” Washington Post
7. “Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan on the political and foreign policy ramifications of India's COVID second wave,” Grand Tamasha
8. “Samanth Subramanian on India’s Vaccine Conundrum,” Grand Tamasha
9. “Anup Malani on India’s COVID Second Wave,” Grand Tamasha

A troubling surge in hate crimes and discrimination targeting Asian Americans has hit the headlines in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The violence has cast a newfound spotlight on the bigotry many Asian immigrant populations experience in the United States.

While Indian Americans have not borne the brunt of the discrimination of the COVID era, the community is no stranger to prejudice. A new study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Johns Hopkins-SAIS, and the University of Pennsylvania looks at the question of discrimination and the broader social realities of the Indian diaspora of the United States.

Milan is a co-author of this study, and this week he sits down with his fellow co-authors—Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Jonathan Kay—to discuss the report’s findings. They discuss the degree of everyday discrimination Indian Americans face, the connection between polarization in India and divisions in the United States, and the ways in which divides in the diaspora could affect U.S.-India relations. Plus, the group reflects on larger issues of identity, social networks, and belonging in the Indian diaspora.

Episode notes:

1. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, Jonathan Kay, and Milan Vaishnav, “Social Realities of Indian Americans: Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey”
2. Grand Tamasha, “Sumitra Badrinathan and Devesh Kapur Decode the 2020 Indian American Vote”
3. Grand Tamasha, “Sumitra Badrinathan and Devesh Kapur on How Indian Americans View India”
4. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “How Will Indian Americans Vote? Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey”
5. Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav, “How Do Indian Americans View India? Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey”