Macro Horizons

Trade tensions are mounting, accelerating the post-FOMC risk off sentiment. China let the yuan depreciate beyond 7 per dollar. US Treasury has formally labelled China a Currency Manipulator. 10yr Treasury yields have fallen by over 30bp this past week. The front-end is pricing two full rate cuts and a decent chance of a third before year-end. Credit spreads are wider and swap spreads are narrower. How much further will China let the yuan fall? What are the implications for the US economy, rates and spreads? How will Canada be impacted if the Fed cuts sooner or by more than the market expects? 

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 5th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 29th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

The trade war has already caused significant damage to business confidence, additional trade uncertainties remain, and global growth is decelerating. These factors should directly impact corporate profitability later this year, but are not yet reflected in spreads due to the Fed-fueled yield grab.  Dan Krieter and Dan Belton bring you their outlook for investment credit spreads as the Fed cuts rates and the economic cycle eventually turns. They also discuss the market impact of the pending Fed Repo Facility in this first edition of their monthly roundtable on high quality spreads. 

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 22nd, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 15th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 8th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 1st, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 24th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

The outlook has dimmed, labor gains hushed, inflation expectations have found their seats, and the stage is now set for the debut of “Powell’s First Cut”. This summer promises to be an inflection point for monetary policy and we’re offering three monetary policy scenarios, along with their respective impacts on rates, spreads, and FX. It goes without saying there are other (far less likely) outcomes we’ve omitted, although nothing is impossible in the current macro environment.