The international corporate reporting season ramps up this week, with numerous heavyweights set to announce earnings. With the S&P 500 in the US sitting at record highs, this will be important for the direction of markets. Some of the highlights in the coming days are likely to include Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, LVMH, Nestle, Netflix, TSMC and Procter & Gamble. It'll be a busy week on the local front, with the September inflation report taking centre stage on Wednesday. This will be important as markets look ahead to the final OCR decision of the year in November. We’ll also get the latest housing report from REINZ, as well as the results of another dairy auction, card spending and the ANZ truckometer.

Gold has been one of the best performing assets these last two years, rising more than 40 per cent and even outpacing the S&P 500 index in the US. Long regarded as a safe-haven asset, it is traditionally favoured by those worried about the health of the global economy and financial system. However, gold has also proven to be a useful diversifier, making it a candidate for inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios.

We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora of challenges to build very successful businesses. When the time comes to think beyond the farm, investing in a portfolio dominated by shares, listed property, private equity and fixed income doesn’t always come naturally. Having less control and influence is a mental hurdle for some, while diversifying far and wide can also be a new concept. However, farmers that can get their head around these differences often become very astute investors.

US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s something we can learn from that as investors. There’s nothing wrong with being mindful of risks and let’s be honest, at any given time the list of concerning issues is a lengthy one. However, when it comes to investing being an optimist pays off.

The New Zealand dollar has rebounded strongly in the last couple of months. It’s been sitting comfortably above US$0.63 in recent days, up eight per cent from under US$0.59 in late July. That’s the highest in more than a year and not far from the long-term average of US$0.66. What's driving this recent surge, where might the NZ dollar go from here and what does this mean for the economy?

The US labour market will be in focus this week, as investors speculate on the likelihood of another 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November. There will also be a debate between the US Vice Presidential candidates in New York this week. Locally, business confidence will be in the spotlight with the ANZ Business Outlook for September due on Monday and the NZIER's QSBO out the next day.

The Federal Reserve started its easing cycle with a bang last week. It cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.50 per cent, a bigger move than some had expected. Is that an ominous sign for the outlook, or will it be the catalyst for markets to keep pushing higher? Central banks don’t have a great track record of taming inflation without causing recessions, but for now investors are keeping the faith.

Global growth will be in focus this week, with the release of flash purchasing managers’ indices for September. We’ll also get the latest PCE inflation report in the US, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. On the central banking front, a monetary policy decision is due across the Tasman, although no change is expected. The domestic economic calendar is sparse, although there is quite a bit of corporate news to follow. The retail sector will be in focus with results from Kathmandu and The Warehouse, while Fonterra is also scheduled to deliver its latest earnings release.

It’s been a difficult few years for first home buyers. Just when borrowing costs started falling in 2020, prices started rising sharply to offset any extra spending capacity buyers had. When the dust settled and prices started coming back to earth, mortgage rates had started to rise rapidly. The housing market stabilised early last year, and now we’ve seen mortgage rates start heading south. Where does that leave potential buyers, and is now a good time to pounce on that first home?

Looking ahead, this week is shaping up as a very busy one with some extremely important events taking place across markets. The Federal Reserve decision in the US will be the highlight, with the first interest rate cut of this cycle (and the first in more than four years) looming. While a 0.25% cut seems assured, markets are ascribing a 35% chance of a larger, 0.50% cut. Here in New Zealand we’ll get the results of another dairy auction, as well as economic growth figures for the June 2024 quarter. Will these figures still look recessionary, and just how bad will they be?