Podcast Notes Playlist: Latest Episodes

"The most exciting new podcast in the startup world.” - Eric Ries, Founder, and NYTimes bestselling author

John’s monthly “Global Guerillas Report”: https://www.patreon.com/johnrobb

Today's episode is with John Robb, a former aeronautical engineer, special-ops soldier, and then the first internet analyst in the 90’s (followed by becoming an extremely successful entrepreneur). He chats with us about his research report that he releases monthly called “The Global Guerillas Report” and answers the question of “What the hell is going on right now?” in the life and times of Covid-19.

He predicted social networks and their impact on the world back in 1996. He also predicted this pandemic in January before most people knew what was about to happen. And he has a few other observations that I haven’t heard anyone mention anywhere else to date that make this one of my favorite episodes to date.

Simply put, John’s monthly “Global Guerillas Report” is some of the best research and journalism on geopolitical trends I’ve ever come across. John was months ahead of pretty much everyone else with predicting this pandemic, and for someone that thinks deeply about the ramifications of what's happening in the present (and for what can / what will likely happen in the future), this is one of my favorite conversations that I've had in several months cutting across almost every question on my mind with regards to the global situation we’re currently in. Enjoy.

You can email James questions directly at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @ twitter.com/gobelowtheline — “Below the Line with James Beshara" is brought to you by Straight Up Podcasts LLC

• “Right now and going forward, whatever time it takes to get through the other side, it’s going to be the best time in the history of mankind to ever start a business because there are no rules. Everything is open for negotiation.” – Mark Cuban
  • If you’ve been fired or furloughed, this is the best time to start your business
    • “Now’s the time to do it”
• Mark views Silicon Valley investors as Old Hollywood. In Old Hollywood, everyone was trying to be an actor; In Silicon Valley, everyone is trying to be an investor.
• “Sales cures all. There’s never been a company in the history of companies that’s ever succeeded without sales.” – Mark Cuban
  • “If the CEO doesn’t believe their product enough to sell it, then nobody else is either”
• “You’re never going to accelerate unless you delegate” – Mark Cuban
• “Hire slow and fire fast” – Mark Cuban

Mark Cuban is a serial entrepreneur, investor, and owner of the Dallas Mavericks. His career began with his founding of MicroSolutions, a company he went on to sell to CompuServe in 1990. Then in 1995 Mark co-founded Broadcast.com - streaming audio over the internet. In just four short years, Broadcast.com (then Audionet) was sold to Yahoo for $5.6 billion dollars. Following the acquisition in 2000, Mark acquired the Dallas Mavericks where since his taking over they have competed in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history in 2006 - and becoming NBA World Champions in 2011. They are currently listed as one of Forbes' most valuable franchises in sports. If that was not enough, Mark is also one of ABC's "Sharks" on the hit show Shark Tank.

In Today’s Episode You Will Learn:

1.) How Mark made his way into the world of technology and startups having been fired from his first job in sales?

2.) How does Mark evaluate his relationship to wealth and money? How has that changed over time? What advice does Mark have to those that tie happiness and money together?

3.) What does Mark think about Silicon Valley investors today? Why does he believe they and the valley are like Hollywood? Why does Mark believe that if the greatest tech companies of today had been started elsewhere, they would be more successful?

4.) How does Mark evaluate his own investing philosophy today? How does Mark think about price and price sensitivity? Why is Mark so keen to have his investment funded from the cashflow of the business? Does this not narrow opportunity and limit upside? How does Mark evaluate risk today?

5.) Why does Mark believe post-COVID is the single greatest time to be an entrepreneur? What advice would he give to an entrepreneur starting their new business in this time? How would Mark go about the re-opening of society post lockdown?

Items Mentioned In Today’s Show:

Mark’s Fave Book: Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust, Healthy Buildings: How Indoor Spaces Drive Performance and Productivity

As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Mark and on Twitter here!

Likewise, you can follow Harry on Instagram here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.

• Self-confidence and self- worth come from within
• “The only person that will always be there for me is me” – Kelley O’Hara
• Emotion is part of being an athlete – it’s natural
• Know that acceptance from your team or “tribe” matters more than what others think of you
• Sometimes just believing is what you need
• If you’re new on a team, learn from the veterans, on and off the field  

This weeks guest is the light spirited tough as nails US Women’s Soccer team member Kelley O'Hara. Kelley shares her perspective and secrets. Like how do you show up again and again even if someone has told you, you”re not good  enough.  Well, she must have figured that out after Olympic gold and multiple World Cup gold medals.  The human side of athletics. Enjoy!

Produced by Dear Media. 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

• Be authentic with your audience  
  • “Go to the truth of who you actually are” – Gary Vaynerchuk
  • That includes your actions: “Expose your scar, show your burn mark”
• Gary wants to help redefine success as happiness, not wealth
  • “Unfortunately, success is around stature, power, money, and we have to take the air out of it. We have to make humanity and kindness to each other..the new norm.” – Gary Vaynerchuk
• Don’t let negative comments knock you down
  • “Why value other people’s opinions when nobody really knows each other” – Gary Vaynerchuk
• Don’t put out social media content with the intention to put others down
  • Post content that encourages people to be happy and kind

To catch Tom live on instagram, follow him @tombilyeu: https://bit.ly/3b44pvm

For more from Gary Vee, follow him @: https://www.instagram.com/garyvee/?hl=en 

To see Gary Vee on Impact Theory, watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lITalyctN4 

• There is a complete lack of global leadership
  • “There is no global plan of action either to fight the epidemic itself or to deal with the economic crisis” – Yuval Noah Harari
• In the Ebola epidemic and the financial crisis, the US acted as the global leader but now, “the US is kind of an anti-leadership position”
  • “America is first in the number of dead people and sick people” – Yuval Noah Harari
• “Global problems require a global solution” – Sam Harris
• There are fewer conflicts between countries, but more conflicts within countries
  • “I think it’s fair to say that today, Americans hate and fear each other far more than they hate and fear the Russians or the Chinese”– Yuval Noah Harari
• To hack a human being, you need 3 things:
  • A good understanding of biology
  • Enormous amounts of data
  • A lot of computing power
    • “Until today, nobody in history had any of these things…now for the first time in history, it is becoming feasible for the new Stalins of the 21st century” – Yuval Noah Harari
• “The COVID-19 crisis is not a health crisis, it’s above all a political crisis. We can deal with the virus, again it’s not the Black Death. We have some scientific knowledge and the technological tools to overcome the epidemic itself. The real problems are in the realm of economics and politics.” – Yuval Noah Harari
• People who have tunnel vision will look at the crisis as an opportunity to gain more of what they want 
  • “If the only thing you care about in life is getting more power or getting more money, this is a perfect opportunity for you” – Yuval Noah Harari
• The media needs to report on what’s changing in the world today, not after the crisis is over
  • “If you wait until 2021, it’s basically like coming to a party after a party is over and the only thing left to do is to wash the dirty dishes. I mean trillions are being divided, distributed right now. In 2021, there will be nothing left to distribute.” – Yuval Noah Harari
• The government can easily track its people, the people should be able to easily track the government

In this episode of the podcast, Sam Harris speaks with Yuval Noah Harari about the Covid-19 pandemic and its future implications. They discuss the failures of global leadership, the widespread distrust of institutions, the benefits of nationalism and its current unraveling in the U.S., politics as a way of reconciling competing desires, the consequences of misinformation, the enduring respect for science, the future of surveillance, the changing role of religion, and other topics.

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• Monetary assets have higher S2F ratios compared to commodities. Otherwise, producers can flood the market and crash the price
• Because of its supply cap of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen
  • Bitcoin halving is a significant event (every ~4 years, or 210,000 blocks, the supply rate of new coins is halved)
• In the new model, PlanB introduces the concept of “Phase Transitions”, how the properties of an item can completely change
  • For example, Bitcoin went from a proof of concept to payments network, E-gold, and now it’s considered a financial asset
• Data used in the original stock to flow model showed some clustering, the new model quantifies those clusters, and maps them to Bitcoin’s phase transitions
  • The model predicts a Bitcoin price of $288K by 2024
• If Bitcoin’s S2F doubles and market value doesn’t increase in the coming 4 years, the model will break
• Post halving, only the strong believers, the efficient miners, and visionary investors will remain
•  “This thing is not a toy anymore, and it’s maybe not an asset anymore as well. It is going to be much bigger than that.” — Plan₿

Location: Zoom
Date: Wednesday 29th April
Project: Independent Trader
Role: Bitcoin Quant Analyst

Plan₿'s Stock-to-Flow model was warmly received by many in Bitcoin. The chart gave context to price action around halvings, validating the importance of scarcity. The S2F model does have critics, and with the third halving approaching, some had questioned whether the reducing subsidy drive price.

The halving is one of the most significant events in the Bitcoin calendar. Every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) the block subsidy issued to the miners reduced by half. Initially, the block reward was 50BTC, now 11 years later on approximately May 12th, we will have the 3rd halving taking the block reward from 12.5BTC to 6.25BTC. By the end of this reward period on May 12th, 87.5% of all Bitcoin will have been mined.

Satoshi implemented the halving as a way of controlling inflation, front-loading the rewards to kick start the protocol. Dan Held stated that halvings are a viral marketing loop which creates awareness.

Historically, the Bitcoin price in the weeks and months following the halving has seen significant moves to the upside, with supply cut in half Bitcoin becomes more scarce and demand may increase.

The Stock-to-Flow model tracks the scarcity of an asset and following the halving the stock to flow ratio of Bitcoin will rise from 25 to 50, meaning it would take 50 years for miners to mine enough Bitcoin to match the current Bitcoin supply, at the current level of issuance. When applied to non-digital assets such as gold and silver, stock-to-flow becomes a benchmarking tool.

Plan B identified a flaw in the model, the overreliance on time. In the latest version of his model, Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model (S2FX), time is removed, and other assets such as gold and silver are added. The new model includes a significant change, Phase Transitions, which identifies that the properties of an asset can change. These changes in the properties of Bitcoin, for example maturing from digital cash to digital gold, identify why the market for the asset grows; thus, there is increasing demand.

In this interview, I talk to Bitcoin Quant Analyst & creator of the popular stock to flow model, Plan₿. We discuss his new S2FX model, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, predicted price action and the impact on miners.

This episode’s sponsors:
Kraken - The best place to buy, sell & trade Bitcoin
BlockFi - The future of Bitcoin financial services
Cointracker - Bitcoin taxes and portfolio manager
Sportsbet.io - Online sportsbook & casino that accepts Bitcoin

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WBD219 Show Notes: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/could-bitcoin-really-be-heading-to-288k-with-plan

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