The April nonfarm payroll figure topped consensus forecasts, and the unemployment rate held at 3.6%. A slight retreat in the labor force participation rate surprised, but, overall, more evidence of a tight labor market should brace a Federal Reserve as it effects an aggressive tightening cycle. That’s despite the fact that, when it comes to growth, we’re looking at “three straight quarters of almost nothing besides inventory along with a growing catalog of economic data more like Q1 GDP than anything.” So observes Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments. Meanwhile, the threat of global recession amid war in Eastern Europe and rising geopolitical tensions augurs a new world order. We hear from Peter Zeihan and Dee Smith. Is the Fed hiking rates into a downturn? How is the market responding to the central bank’s rapid tone shift? And what will investors do should the situation devolve into a real collateral crisis? Snider joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about whether the Fed is up to the challenges it faces. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ylWN5I. Watch the full interview with Peter Zeihan and Dee Smith here: https://rvtv.io/3kJBIKy.

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U.S. equity indexes rallied hard during Jerome Powell’s post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference yesterday, posting the biggest rally in two years because the Federal Reserve Chair said the central bank was not “actively considering” a 75-basis-point rate hike. Today, 95% of the S&P 500 is trading lower, The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off more than 700 points, and the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged as high as 3.106% before settling at 3.09%, its highest level since 2018, as investors seem to be more and more accepting of the fact that the Fed will continue to aggressively fight inflation, at the risk of equity valuations and economic growth. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about today’s price action and central bank policy as well as natural gas and other critical commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vJLkLB

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The Federal Open Market Committee agreed to raise the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points and to begin shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in June by $47.5 billion, with the runoff pace to reach a maximum of $95 billion per month after three months. The FOMC noted in its statement that “ongoing” increases to the fed funds target rate will be appropriate. The central bank’s quest now is to find some “neutral” rate of interest without tipping the economy into recession. “The last time the Fed made a 50-basis-point move was March 2000,” notes Darius Dale. “The dot-com bubble burst shortly thereafter, with the S&P 500 losing 50% and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 80% from 2000 peak to 2002 trough.” Equity indexes were mixed shortly after the FOMC announcement and shortly ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Fed, the economy, and how the “smart money” is reacting to quarterly earnings reports. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3y9meHD

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Not since March 2000 has the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50-basis-point increase to the federal funds target rate. Now, the FOMC is a day away from doing just that. And traders are pricing in near-even-money odds of a 75-basis-point hike in June. The FOMC is also expected to introduce its plan to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on Wednesday, a process with its own implications for interest rates. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains late Tuesday. Factory orders for March rose a better-than-expected 2.2%, job openings reached an all-time high of 11.5 million, and U.S. natural gas prices hit a 13-year high on growing concern supply will fall short of demand this summer. The data suggest the Fed has room to do what it needs to do to fight inflation. But, as Warren Pies notes, “Oil is driving this market…” And there are structural factors at play that could make the central bank’s job impossible. Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura to talk about today’s price action, tomorrow’s decision by the FOMC, and the prospect of stagflation afflicting the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kEtIKN

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Hard-core technical analysts will tell you that, ultimately, “price” is the only thing that matters. Countless investors, traders, and speculators making decisions about the values of assets will contemplate just about every conceivable issue. “Price” is where all that shows up. Today, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond surged past 3% to a three-year high, as the market braces for the first 50-basis-point increases to the federal funds target rate since March 2000 at Wednesday’s conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Stocks opened mostly higher but slid into the red as the trading day wore on. The Nasdaq Composite is coming off its worst month since 2008, and the S&P 500 is off to its worst start to a year since 1939. Still, as Dave Floyd sees it, “Most traders and investors are not prepared for the perfect storm we are all facing.” Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about what technical indicators are telling him about the current condition of the market and how traders and investors can prepare for what’s coming. And we hear briefly from Raoul Pal about the assets you should be eyeing in these volatile times. To join Raoul on his multi-week journey of learning and discovery for global recession, Is Everyone Wrong, go to https://rvtv.io/3s0ep3d. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3765Uw4 ...

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Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, joins MI2's Harry Melandri on the debut episode of The Next Big Trade to discuss his unique financial journey, potential opportunities in US bond markets, and much more.

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Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Fan favorite and skilled trader, Tony Greer, joins Maggie Lake in a special live edition to share how exactly he went from being on the exchange floor to running his own company, TG Macro.

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U.S. equity indexes traded lower today, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.7% two hours before the close of regular trading and headed toward its worst month since 2008. The S&P 500 was down 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.5%. Inflation remains the major overhang, with supply-chain disruptions as well as high food and energy prices only made worse by pandemic and war and the authorities’ responses to those crises. The Federal Reserve has turned aggressively hawkish, but its efforts to tighten monetary conditions into a slowing economy threaten to bring about recession. Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, stagflation, and recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MDmdzM. To join Raoul on his multi-week journey of learning and discovery for global recession, Is Everyone Wrong, go to https://rvtv.io/3s0ep3d.

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U.S. equity indexes were well in the green Thursday afternoon despite the fact that gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 1.4% during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Earnings reports continue to reflect consumer resilience in the face of historic inflation, even as the conflict in Eastern Europe metastasizes and the situation in Japan – with the central bank still trying to control the yield curve but the government pushing for a stronger yen – threatens a fiscal crisis. “The bottom line with the U.S. economy is where the breaking point is with respect to the consumer response to ever-rising prices,” notes Peter Boockvar. “We are moving closer to it, and there are signs here and there that we are hitting it. But, from what I’ve heard from company CEOs, we’re not there yet.” Boockvar, the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the economy, inflation, and today’s price action. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OCdmQu

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Prices for assets of all kinds were up Wednesday, including stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, and global bond yields marched higher. That’s despite the emergence of still more signs of underlying weakness, including Robinhood laying off 9% of its workforce. And Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in the latest escalation of the war in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will meet tomorrow to discuss monetary policy, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains committed to an accommodative stance despite the yen’s historic weakness. China, too, is sticking with accommodation, as President Xi Jinping said the government will support major infrastructure projects in cities impacted by renewed coronavirus lockdowns. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Weston Nakamura to talk about financial markets, geopolitics, and the odds central banks are able to engineer a soft landing for the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Lpk36q

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