Can a niche hobby become a viable retail concept?

The golf industry quietly experienced one of the biggest participation surges in decades during the pandemic. Millions of people picked up clubs for the first time, and the ripple effects are still reshaping the business of golf, from course operations to the rise of indoor golf concepts.

This Retail Retold Replay revisits Chris Ressa’s conversation with Brian Hilko, owner of Golf Factory in Mount Prospect, Illinois, and a tenant at DLC’s Randhurst Village.

After two decades as a PGA professional running golf courses, managing operations, and teaching the game, Hilko recognized something most operators overlooked: traditional golf experiences were often transactional and uninspiring. The game people loved deserved better.

So he built something different.

Golf Factory blends serious golf technology with an approachable, family-friendly environment. Powered by TrackMan simulators used by professional golfers, the concept allows players of all skill levels to practice, compete, and play year round without the intimidation factor many associate with traditional golf settings.

Hilko shares the entrepreneurial journey behind launching the business, from identifying the opportunity during the COVID golf boom to building the space with an SBA loan, a partner, and a lot of hands-on work that saved nearly $1 million in construction costs.

The conversation also highlights an emerging category within retail real estate: experiential concepts that draw consistent traffic and complement surrounding tenants rather than compete with them. Indoor golf has become a compelling example, delivering entertainment, community engagement, and repeat visits.

Looking back now adds helpful perspective. The themes discussed, experiential retail, niche operators, and passion driven entrepreneurship, remain highly relevant as landlords and operators continue to search for concepts that drive traffic and create community.

For retail real estate professionals, operators, and entrepreneurs, this replay offers a sharp look at how a passion for the game became a viable retail business.

1. Why the pandemic accelerated golf participation - and how millions of new players changed the business of the sport.
2. The problem with traditional golf experiences - and why Hilko believed the industry often underserves players.
3. Indoor golf’s growing role in the sport - combining professional-grade technology with accessibility for casual players.
4. How TrackMan technology is transforming training and entertainment - bringing tour-level analytics to everyday golfers.
5. The entrepreneurial leap from PGA professional to business owner - and recognizing when the opportunity was right.
6. How Hilko financed the business - combining an SBA loan, a partner, and a detailed business plan built from real operational data.
7. Saving nearly $1 million on buildout costs - by rolling up sleeves and completing major portions of the construction personally.
8. Why location strategy mattered - choosing a retail development with strong surrounding traffic and no direct competition.
9. How experiential tenants complement retail centers - driving visitation that benefits surrounding restaurants and shops.

00:06 — Brian Hilko’s background in golf

A PGA professional explains how two decades in golf operations led to entrepreneurship.

01:26 — Why golf surged during the pandemic

Chris and Brian discuss the massive participation wave and why the game resonates with new players.

02:31 — The appeal of indoor golf

How technology and convenience make the sport accessible for busy people and families.

04:14 — Recognizing a business opportunity

Hilko explains the moment he decided to launch his own golf concept.

06:22 — Building a better golf experience

Why Golf Factory was designed to remove the intimidation factor of traditional golf.

08:06 — Financing and launching the business

How a network, SBA financing, and careful planning made the concept possible.

10:25 — Technology that powers the experience

TrackMan simulators bring professional-grade data and gameplay to indoor golf.

13:03 — The economics of the buildout

How the team kept the total buildout under $1 million through hands-on construction.

14:36 — Revenue projections and early performance

Hilko discusses expectations for growth and seasonality in the business.

15:43 — Finding the right retail location

Why Randhurst Village offered the right combination of demand, traffic, and opport

Back in 2024, Chris Ressa sat down with DLC CEO Adam Ifshin in Las Vegas ahead of ICSC to talk about a retail market that was already showing unusual strength. Looking back from 2026, that conversation reads less like commentary and more like an early signal of where open-air retail was headed.

At the time, Adam laid out a clear case: open-air retail fundamentals were outperforming the broader narrative. Traffic, sales, occupancy, and rent had all moved above pre-pandemic levels, even while capital markets remained strained. That disconnect was the core tension then, and it remains one of the most important dynamics to understand now.

What stands out even more in hindsight is how early DLC was in identifying the structural forces behind that strength. Chris and Adam discussed years of underbuilding, limited new supply, rising construction costs, and the steady removal of retail space for other uses like apartments, healthcare, and self-storage. In 2026, those pressures have not disappeared. If anything, they have become harder to ignore.

The conversation also reinforced two themes that have continued to shape the market: the durability of value retail and the strength of suburban, secondary, and exurban demand. Long before those ideas became consensus views, DLC was investing around them. Looking back, the logic still holds. Consumers continue to prioritize value, retailers continue to chase the right space, and owners continue to operate in a market where quality supply is limited.

This conversation matters now because it captures a moment when disciplined operators were already seeing what others were still debating. For retail real estate professionals, investors, and retailers trying to understand how we got here, this is a sharp look at the thinking that helped define the last two years of the market.

1. Open-air retail fundamentals are still too good to ignore - How traffic, sales, occupancy, and rent have all moved past pre-pandemic highs, reinforcing the strength of the sector.
2. Capital markets diverged from fundamentals - How rising interest rates and tighter credit created volatility in financing even while retail performance strengthened.
3. Strong fundamentals matter more than cheap capital - Why disciplined operators prefer a market with solid demand and constrained capital rather than easy money and weak assets.
4. Supply constraints are reshaping retail - How 15 years of underbuilding, rising construction costs, and redevelopment have reduced available retail space.
5. Value is always in fashion - How retailers like Walmart, TJX, and other value-focused brands continue to win with consumers across income levels.
6. Suburban and secondary markets are gaining momentum - How migration, affordability, and remote work have pushed growth beyond major urban centers.
7. Retailers are expanding into smaller markets - How shifting demographics and income growth have opened new opportunities for national tenants.
8. Smart retailers move early on space - How limited supply is pushing tenants to secure locations now before rents climb further.

00:00 — Live from Las Vegas, before the market fully caught up

Chris opens the conversation with Adam Ifshin from ICSC week in Vegas.

01:55 — Why DLC published “Too good to ignore”

Adam explains the thinking behind DLC’s 2024 white paper and why the timing mattered.

02:35 — The fundamentals were already telling a different story

Traffic, sales, occupancy, and rent had all pushed past pre-pandemic highs.

04:45 — The big disconnect: strong assets, stressed capital markets

Adam breaks down why financing conditions were not reflecting what operators were seeing on the ground.

08:57 — Why strong fundamentals beat cheap capital

Chris asks which environment matters more, and Adam makes the case for discipline over easy money.

12:05 — Could outside capital really move into retail?

They discuss whether groups from other asset classes could compete in open-air retail.

15:34 — Rates, cap rates, and timing the market

Adam explains why buying into strong fundamentals matters more than waiting for perfect conditions.

17:41 — What constrained supply really meant long term

Chris and Adam talk through the deeper implications of limited space and rising retailer demand.

20:54 — Why new development was still far from a real answer

Adam outlines why replacement cost and labor constraints were holding back new retail construction.

25:50 — Why value retail was never just a trend

Adam explains why value has always been central to DLC’s view of the consumer.

31:54 — The consumer story behind the retail story

Adam makes the connection between consumer health, policy, and retail real estate performance.

33:43 — Why suburban and smaller markets were gaining strength

Demographic shifts, remote work, and affordability made these markets more compelling.

42:52 — What smart retailers were expected to do next

Adam lays out why decisive tenants would move early as the supply-demand imbalance continued.

Is 2026 about to be the biggest year for retail real estate in decades?

Retail real estate doesn’t move in a vacuum. It moves when consumers have a reason to act. 2026 is shaping up to be one of the strongest demand environments in decades because three massive global catalysts are converging at the same time: the World Cup, the Winter Olympics tailwind, and America’s 250th anniversary.

Major live events compress consumer hesitation. They create urgency. They create moments. And moments drive spending.

The data already supports this. Global events generate massive marketing exposure, elevated brand awareness, and increased physical activity in retail corridors. But the real impact isn’t just tourism, it’s domestic behavior. People travel, gather, host, celebrate, and spend in ways they otherwise wouldn’t. Retailers, restaurants, and physical destinations become the center of those moments.

At the same time, the fundamentals of retail real estate remain exceptionally strong. Supply is constrained. Leasing velocity is accelerating. Tenants are competing aggressively for physical space, recognizing that stores do more than produce four-wall profit, they lower customer acquisition costs and drive digital growth.

The narrative that retail is “technology resistant” completely misses the point. The physical store isn’t fighting technology, it’s enhancing it. Retailers are discovering that their digital performance improves when they open physical locations. Stores are no longer just revenue centers; they are strategic growth engines.

This shift has fundamentally changed the leasing environment. Landlords are no longer chasing tenants to fill space. Tenants are racing to secure locations before competitors do.

Retail isn’t surviving. It’s expanding. 2026 could be remembered as the year physical retail reasserted its full strategic value, not just as a place to transact, but as a critical platform for brand growth, customer acquisition, and long-term market share.

1. Why global events are creating a 2026 retail tailwind - How the World Cup, America 250, and stacked spending moments are driving incremental tourism, domestic travel, and real-world consumer activity.
2. How live moments accelerate spending behavior - Why major events compress hesitation and push consumers from waiting to acting.
3. The leasing velocity surge happening right now - What rising deal volume, stronger economics, and tenant expansion signal about retail confidence.
4. Why retailers are in a land grab for physical space - How constrained supply has shifted the market and intensified competition for prime locations.
5. Why physical stores power digital growth - How brick-and-mortar lowers customer acquisition costs and makes omnichannel performance more efficient.
6. Why retail isn’t tech resistant—tech needs retail - The strategic shift from clicks versus bricks to clicks because of bricks, and what that means for long-term real estate value.

00:01 - Why I’m bullish on 2026

The macro retail real estate fundamentals and why the outlook is stronger than the narrative suggests.

02:08 - The olympics spending tailwind has already started

How marketing exposure and brand promotion drive spending beyond the event itself.

04:25 - Why the world cup will be a massive retail catalyst

Tourism, domestic travel, and gathering behavior will drive incremental retail demand.

06:36 - America 250 and the stacking of spending catalysts

Patriotism, celebrations, and event sequencing create sustained spending momentum.

08:51 - Leasing velocity is accelerating rapidly

Real-world leasing activity confirms strong tenant demand and economic confidence.

10:41 - The myth of technology-resistant tenants

Why framing retail as resistant to technology misses the real strategic shift.

10:59 - Why stores drive digital growth

Physical locations lower customer acquisition costs and enhance overall brand performance.

11:54 - The tenant land grab has begun

Retailers are aggressively securing space before competitors lock in key locations.

13:09 - Why physical retail is more valuable than ever

The strategic role of stores is expanding beyond traditional revenue metrics.

Grocery-anchored retail continues to prove why it remains one of the most durable and coveted asset classes in commercial real estate. Despite persistent narratives around online grocery, delivery economics, and shifting consumer behavior, grocery real estate entered 2026 from a position of strength, not disruption.

Sales growth in 2025 outpaced inflation, signaling more than just higher food costs. Consumers are spending more inside grocery stores, cooking at home, and prioritizing value over convenience. While online grocery sales continue to rise, they now represent roughly 17 percent of total spend, a level that feels elevated and increasingly close to a plateau. Delivery fees, reverse logistics, and thin margins reinforce a fundamental truth: for most shoppers, value wins. The tactile nature of grocery shopping, selecting produce, choosing cuts of meat, and controlling quality creates a level of stickiness unmatched in other retail categories.

From a real estate perspective, grocery stores remain exceptional traffic drivers and increasingly valuable anchors. Grocers are reinvesting heavily in their locations on a steady cadence, often without landlord contributions, strengthening centers while protecting long-term performance. That reinvestment comes with expectations, as landlords are pressured to keep common areas and surrounding spaces competitive. When a grocer leaves, outcomes become highly market-specific, ranging from strong backfill demand to full asset repositioning depending on competition, capital availability, and consumer density.

Specialty grocers are having a moment, and it is not confined to coastal markets. Ethnically diverse concepts, fresh-focused operators, value-driven formats, and curated regional brands are scaling nationally. These retailers are transforming historically local shopping behaviors into repeatable, high-performing models that attract both loyal core customers and curious new shoppers.

Even Amazon’s retreat from its Fresh concept underscores the sector’s resilience. Grocery remains intensely competitive, operationally complex, and deeply rooted in experience, service, and value. The takeaway is clear: brick-and-mortar grocery is not just surviving. It is reinforcing its role as one of retail real estate’s most reliable foundations

1. Why grocery continues to anchor retail real estate - A clear-eyed look at why grocery remains one of the most stable, high-performing asset classes despite years of disruption headlines.
2. How consumer spending is shaping the grocery sector - Why sales growth outpaced inflation and what that reveals about value, at-home consumption, and evolving shopping behavior.
3. The real story behind online grocery growth - A candid discussion on delivery costs, margins, and why convenience has limits in a value-driven category.
4. What makes grocery shopping so “sticky” - The human behaviors, from produce to protein, that keep consumers returning to physical stores.
5. Why grocers keep reinvesting in brick-and-mortar locations - How ongoing store reinvestment strengthens centers and creates long-term benefits for landlords.
6. What happens when a grocery anchor leaves a center - Why backfill, repositioning, and outcomes vary dramatically depending on market dynamics.
7. The rise of specialty and ethnic grocers nationwide - How curated concepts, fresh-focused formats, and regional operators are scaling across the country.
8. What Amazon Fresh got wrong about grocery - Lessons from Amazon’s retreat and why technology alone cannot replace value, service, and loyalty.
9. Why grocery real estate still wins - A closing perspective on durability, frequency, and why grocery remains foundational to open-air retail.

00:00 – Grocery’s staying power in retail real estate

Why grocery continues to stand out as one of the most resilient and reliable anchors in open-air retail.

02:10 – Consumer spending trends shaping grocery in 2025

How sales growth outpaced inflation and what it says about value, at-home consumption, and shopper behavior.

04:25 – Online grocery growth and the reality of delivery economics

Why rising costs, thin margins, and logistics challenges are slowing the push toward full digital adoption.

07:15 – The stickiness of the in-store grocery experience

From produce to protein, the physical elements of grocery shopping that keep consumers coming back.

09:50 – Grocer reinvestment and what it means for landlords

How consistent store reinvestment strengthens centers and raises expectations for the rest of the asset.

12:30 – When a grocery anchor leaves a shopping center

Why outcomes range from strong backfill demand to full asset repositioning depending on the market.

15:10 – The rise of specialty and ethnic grocery concepts

How fresh-focused, curated, and ethnically diverse grocers are scaling across the U.S.

18:05 – Why Amazon Fresh failed to break through

Lessons from Amazon’s exit and what it reveals about loyalty, value, and grocery fundamentals.

21:35 – What grocery real estate gets right

A closing look at frequency, durability, and why grocery remains foundational to open-air retail.

Retail leases are moving fast again, and in East Tennessee, they are moving faster than most people think is possible.

Chris Ressa talks with Lindsey Barden, founder of Dark Horse CRE, a tenant-rep-only broker covering Knoxville, Chattanooga, and the Tri-Cities. Her view from the ground is simple: vacancy is extremely low, the best spaces trade off-market, and retailers are routinely battling multiple LOIs for the same box. In the past six months, Lindsey says 80-to-90 percent of her deals have been competitive, forcing brands to show up ready to commit, pay closer to asking, and cut through internal red tape.

Landlords are prioritizing certainty and speed, especially in second-generation space. The tenants winning deals are the ones asking for less work and fewer dollars from ownership, tightening timelines, and moving from “perfect protections” to more balanced lease terms.

The proof point is a Crunch Fitness anchor lease that went from discovery to signed lease in roughly two weeks. No traditional LOI. Basic terms handled by email. Architects and contractors brought in immediately. Approvals happening across time zones. A two-level layout that required creative planning, not a cookie-cutter prototype. Two motivated parties decided the deal mattered, and executed like it.

If you want a takeaway: stop treating leasing like a slow process. Treat it like a race. Speed wins.

1. Why East Tennessee is one of the tightest retail markets in the country — and what low vacancy really means for tenants trying to expand.
2. What 80 to 90 percent competitive deal flow looks like in practice — multiple LOIs, limited second-generation space, and constant off-market conversations.
3. How landlords are prioritizing certainty over creativity — why minimal TI, faster approvals, and fewer contingencies are winning deals.
4. What retailers must change internally to compete — consolidating corporate review, accelerating decision-making, and committing earlier.
5. How a Crunch Fitness anchor lease went from tour to signed in 14 days — no traditional LOI, creative problem solving on a two-level box, and approvals happening across time zones.
6. Why speed is the ultimate differentiator in today’s leasing environment — and how motivated parties can compress timelines dramatically.
7. A thoughtful look at retail saturation vs. market expansion — coffee, chicken, gyms, and how to separate durable concepts from passing trends.
8. The mindset shift required to win in 2026 retail real estate — treat leasing less like a negotiation marathon and more like a sprint.

00:00 – Meet Lindsey Barden

A 20-year tenant rep veteran shares her journey from Virginia brokerage to founding Dark Horse CRE in East Tennessee.

08:15 – Why East Tennessee Is So Competitive

Lindsey breaks down Knoxville’s low vacancy, off-market deals, and why most spaces now trade with multiple LOIs.

12:00 – Retailers Must Move Faster

Corporate approval timelines are shrinking as brands realize that hesitation means losing the deal.

16:05 – What Landlords Want Right Now

Minimal TI, fewer contingencies, and faster rent commencement are outweighing bells and whistles in lease negotiations.

25:45 – Are We Over-Retailed?

Coffee, chicken, and gyms spark a debate about saturation versus untapped market share.

33:50 – Trends vs. Durable Concepts

A discussion on fads, long-term winners, and how evolving brands survive shifting consumer demand.

38:10 – The 14-Day Anchor Deal

A Crunch Fitness lease goes from tour to signed in just two weeks through speed, creativity, and alignment.

41:30 – No LOI, Just Execution

Basic terms handled by email and architects brought in immediately compress what normally takes months.

44:00 – The Power of Two Motivated Parties

Why urgency and shared intent—not secrets—made the accelerated deal possible.

45:15 – Final Takeaway: Speed Wins

Retail leasing is no longer a slow grind; the brands that move decisively are winning the best spaces.

Longevity in retail is earned, not engineered.

Chris Ressa and David Habas, Managing Partner at HK Enterprises, unpack what it actually takes to build and operate a service retail business over decades, cycles, and constant change.

Habas brings nearly 30 years of franchising experience and a rare dual lens as both an operator and someone who came up through commercial real estate. That perspective shows up throughout the discussion, from how Supercuts’ footprint and service model have evolved, to why tracking customer counts still matters more than chasing top-line growth alone. He shares real AUV benchmarks, candid insights on post-COVID demand shifts, and why price increases only work when paired with consistency and execution.

The conversation scales when Habas walks through a pivotal Boston relocation, moving from an iconic, high-rent location to a smaller, smarter space around the corner and growing the business in the process. The takeaway is simple and sharp: great operators don’t fight change, they design around it.

For retailers, franchisees, and landlords alike, this episode reinforces a core truth of open-air retail: durable brands are built by people who think long-term, understand real estate, and know how to adapt without losing the customer.

1. Why longevity in franchising comes from following the system, not trying to outsmart it
2. How the salon industry has evolved post-COVID and what “butts in the chair” really tells you
3. Real AUV benchmarks and what separates top-performing locations from the rest of the system
4. The tradeoffs between organic growth, acquisitions, and relocations when space is limited
5. A first-hand look at relocating an iconic Boston store and growing sales while lowering rent
6. How strong landlord relationships create flexibility during moments of disruption
7. Why service retail still wins on consistency, efficiency, and customer trust
8. Lessons from building a multi-decade business with a long-tenured leadership team

00:00 – Building a Franchise Before Franchising Was Cool

David Habas shares his path into franchising and how HK Enterprises grew into one of the largest Supercuts franchise operators over multiple decades and markets.

04:45 – How the Salon Industry Has Actually Changed

From oversized footprints to tighter, more efficient stores, Habas breaks down how customer needs, services, and layouts have evolved.

07:20 – Post-COVID Reality: Traffic, Frequency, and Revenue

A candid look at customer behavior shifts, why frequency matters more than headlines, and how the business is tracking recovery.

10:30 – AUVs, Scale, and What Performance Really Looks Like

Habas shares real average unit volumes and explains why location, execution, and consistency separate top operators from the pack.

12:30 – Growth When Space Is Hard to Find

Organic growth, acquisitions, and smart relocations all come into play when prime retail real estate is limited.

18:30 – Turning a Flagship Crisis into a Win

A high-rent Boston location forces a move, leading to a smaller footprint, lower occupancy costs, and stronger long-term performance.

23:40 – The Operator–Landlord Relationship

Why not all tenants are created equal and how traffic-driving service retail adds value beyond rent.

29:30 – Franchising, Technology, and Playing the Long Game

Habas explains why he would choose franchising again and how tech, systems, and discipline keep brands relevant.

32:00 – The Next Generation Question

A candid conversation about family businesses, succession, and what it takes to sustain a multi-generation operation.

Retail real estate is not won in boardrooms. It is won in the field. Chris Ressa sits down with Tine Helton, Regional Property Manager at DLC, to talk about the work that actually keeps open-air retail centers running across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. From tenant relationships to infrastructure issues, Tine walks through what it means to own the day-to-day when performance, responsiveness, and consistency are the difference between a good center and a great one.

Tine’s path into property management started on the leasing side, where she learned how a deal turns into a real, operating business. That curiosity led her into operations, professional certifications through IREM, and a leadership role focused on getting better at the craft, not just holding the title. The conversation digs into why education, ethics, and peer networks still matter in a business that moves fast and demands real accountability.

At DLC, Tine shares what stood out most: a culture that backs its people and expects them to take ownership of outcomes. The result is a practical look at how strong operators build better properties, stronger tenant partnerships, and long-term performance in open-air retail.

1. Why the best property managers operate like owners, not order-takers
2. How leasing knowledge becomes an operational advantage once the deal is signed
3. What IREM certifications actually change in day-to-day decision-making and leadership
4. How to turn education and peer networks into real career leverage
5. What strong culture looks like when performance and accountability matter
6. How Midwest open-air centers stay competitive through consistency, speed, and follow-through

00:00 – The Operator’s Seat

Chris introduces Tine Helton and sets the stage for a conversation about what it really takes to run retail centers, not just lease them.

01:00 – From Leasing to Leadership

Tine explains how her early work supporting leasing teams shaped the way she thinks about operations, tenants, and long-term performance.

02:45 – Choosing the Harder Path

A look at why she moved into property management and embraced the challenge of being accountable for everything that happens after the deal is done.

04:00 – The IREM Advantage

Tine breaks down how certifications, ethics, and peer networks through IREM sharpened her decision-making and accelerated her career.

07:30 – Turning Education into Opportunity

How investing in professional development led directly to promotions, leadership roles, and industry recognition.

12:45 – Joining DLC and Thinking Like an Owner

What stood out about DLC’s culture and why ownership, accountability, and support matter in daily operations.

15:40 – Growth Without a Ceiling

Tine shares why continuous learning, new disciplines, and community involvement keep her pushing forward.

17:45 – Defining a Successful Year

What success looks like when it is measured by team performance, process improvement, and being a leader others can count on.

2026 might be the year retail real estate finally turns momentum into pricing power. Chris Ressa and Karly Iacono open with a confident call: next year will outperform an already-strong 2025, and the data is starting to line up behind it.

Holiday sales climbed roughly 4 percent year-over-year, outpacing inflation and reinforcing a simple truth: consumers keep spending, even when sentiment wobbles. The conversation breaks down the “K-shaped” economy, where higher-income shoppers drive discretionary growth while value-focused and necessity-based retail remains resilient across every income bracket.

The hosts point to sharper inventory discipline and steadier supply chains as quiet margin drivers, giving retailers more control over pricing and fewer forced discounts. On the real estate side, fewer major bankruptcies and limited space givebacks are tightening supply, setting the stage for a more landlord-driven market. The result: upward pressure on rents, stronger net operating income, and potential value gains as interest rates ease.

They also look ahead to demand catalysts, from global sporting events and America’s 250th anniversary to a new wave of store openings coming out of late-2025 leasing. While risks remain, from AI-driven job shifts to geopolitical uncertainty, the core bet is clear: tighter supply, resilient consumers, and disciplined operators could make 2026 a defining year for retail real estate.

1. The data points behind the call that 2026 tops a strong 2025
2. Why consumer spending keeps winning over sentiment
3. How the K-shaped economy is reshaping value, necessity, and discretionary retail
4. Tighter supply, fewer bankruptcies, and what that means for landlord leverage
5. Inventory discipline and supply chains as quiet drivers of pricing power
6. NOI, rents, and value: how the real estate math is shifting
7. Traffic catalysts ahead, from global events to a new wave of store openings
8. The key risks still in play, from AI disruption to geopolitical shocks

00:00 — The Bold Call for 2026

Chris and Karly open with a confident prediction that 2026 will outperform a strong 2025 for retail real estate and explain why they’re leading with the conclusion.

01:20 — Holiday Sales vs. Consumer Sentiment

A breakdown of holiday spending growth and why real consumer behavior matters more than surveys and headlines.

03:55 — The K-Shaped Economy in Retail

How higher-income and value-focused consumers are shaping different lanes of retail performance across categories.

05:55 — Inventory, Pricing, and Margin Control

Why better inventory discipline and steadier supply chains are giving retailers more leverage on pricing.

08:20 — Tariffs, Supply Chains, and Stability

What’s changed since early 2025 and why supply volatility feels less like a headline risk for 2026.

09:45 — Bankruptcies, Space, and Expansion Pressure

How fewer large retail failures are tightening available space and reshaping store rollout strategies.

12:10 — The Landlord’s Market and Rent Dynamics

A look at how pricing power, tenant improvements, and net effective rents could move in 2026.

13:45 — Disposable Income and Category Signals

Why tax changes, IPO activity, and home furnishings are flashing confidence in the consumer.

16:35 — Traffic Drivers and Big Event Energy

From the World Cup to America’s 250th, how major moments could translate into real retail foot traffic.

20:55 — Risks, AI, and the Black Swan Factor

A candid look at job disruption, geopolitical uncertainty, and what could derail an otherwise strong setup.

25:20 — NOI, Values, and the 2026 Outlook

How tighter supply, steady expenses, and easing rates could converge to lift property values.

27:00 — Final Take: Why 2026 Feels Different

Closing thoughts on momentum, discipline, and why retail real estate may be entering a defining year.

Retail real estate in early 2026 is defined by imbalance. In many suburban, open-air markets, demand is overwhelming supply. Five tenants are chasing one quality space. Vacancy is razor-thin. New construction still does not pencil. The result is leverage—and it is shifting.

Chris Ressa and Andrew Mahr of Bialow Real Estate dig into how that leverage is actually showing up in deals. Face rents are not always jumping overnight, but economics are tightening through lower tenant improvement packages, higher tenant capital contributions, and tougher negotiations around delivery costs. Retail is repricing—just not always in the most obvious way.

The conversation also highlights the growing divide between markets. Urban cores tied to office traffic remain uneven, while suburban lifestyle centers are absorbing demand from retailers with capital, patience, and long-term conviction. Strong operators are choosing to invest more upfront to control fixed occupancy costs over time, especially in junior anchor and specialty formats.

A North Miami case study brings the thesis to life. An off-market Wild Fork deal shows how the best sites are no longer “available”—they are unlocked through persistence, relationships, and a willingness to target occupied real estate. The takeaway is simple: in today’s market, waiting for vacancy is passive. Going direct is how deals get done.

1. How rising rents are showing up through deal structure, not always through face rate
2. Why tenant improvement packages are shrinking and tenant capital is coming back into the equation
3. What it really means when deals “don’t pencil” in a high-cost, high-rate environment
4. How strong retailers are deciding when it makes sense to invest more upfront to control long-term occupancy costs
5. Why off-market strategies matter more in a low-vacancy world
6. A real North Miami case study showing how targeting occupied real estate can unlock best-in-market locations
7. How landlord-tenant alignment can accelerate expansion and turn single deals into long-term partnerships

00:00 – Welcome and introductions

Chris Ressa welcomes Andrew Mahr and sets the stage for a wide-ranging conversation on retail, relationships, and the market.

01:00 – Running, resilience, and perspective

Andrew shares his Boston Marathon journey and why endurance, advocacy, and long-term commitment shape how he approaches business.

03:00 – What Bilo Real Estate actually does

A look at Bilo’s role as a national, outsourced real estate department and why deep market familiarity matters.

05:15 – Retail in 2026: a tale of two markets

Urban cores tied to office demand lag while suburban, open-air retail faces intense competition and limited supply.

07:45 – Why new retail still doesn’t pencil

Interest rates, construction costs, and underwriting realities continue to stall speculative retail development.

09:30 – Leasing momentum and shifting deal economics

Rents are rising—but often through reduced TIs and higher tenant capital, not just headline numbers.

12:00 – Who’s winning: strong retailers with capital

Why the healthiest tenants are choosing to invest more upfront to control long-term occupancy costs.

13:30 – Hospitality and wellness as growth categories

Restaurants, social wellness, and experiential concepts emerge as powerful drivers in mixed-use environments.

15:20 – Retail’s changing role in mixed-use projects

How retail is anchoring hotels and serving as support in residential-heavy developments.

16:00 – Off-market strategy in action: North Miami

A Wild Fork case study shows how targeting the best corner—occupied or not—creates opportunity.

18:45 – Why “availability” is the wrong starting point

Reverse-engineering markets around the best sites instead of what’s listed.

21:00 – Relationships over transactions

How trust between landlords, tenants, and advisors accelerates deals and fuels long-term growth.

25:00 – Closing thoughts on partnership and execution

A reminder that alignment, patience, and execution—not timing the market—drive success.

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Retail real estate is not just stable — it is entering a meaningfully better phase of the cycle.

Drawing on recent conversations with owners, brokers, tenants, architects, engineers, and contractors, Chris Ressa challenges the prevailing narrative that 2026 will simply mirror a solid 2025. Instead, he outlines why the year ahead could outperform expectations across leasing, rents, and long-term fundamentals.

At the center of his thesis is sustained leasing velocity. Across categories and markets, tenant demand continues to outpace available supply, even as headlines focus on isolated retailer struggles. Chris explains why those failures do not define the health of retail — and why today’s winners are expanding with conviction.

He also breaks down why early-2025 disruptions, including an unusually high number of store closures and tariff uncertainty, are unlikely to repeat in 2026. With bankruptcies moderating, new construction still muted, and many signed tenants yet to open, available retail space is tightening further.

Layer in a U.S. consumer expected to gain discretionary spending power, and the result is a collision of forces that may finally unlock meaningful rent growth. Chris argues this is the early innings of a retail pricing cycle — and 2026 could be the year it clearly shows up.

• Why 2026 could outperform already-strong 2025 results
• How leasing velocity is signaling a tighter retail market
• The impact of fewer bankruptcies on available retail space
• Why muted new construction matters more than headlines suggest
• How rising consumer discretionary income supports rent growth
• What the next retail pricing cycle may look like for landlords and investors

00:12 – Welcome to 2026

Chris sets the stage with early sentiment from across the retail real estate industry.

01:58 – Leasing Velocity Tells the Real Story

Demand for retail space continues to outpace supply across most categories.

03:28 – Winners, Losers, and Retail Reality

Why retailer failures don’t equal a weak retail sector.

05:32 – Bankruptcies, Tariffs, and a Reset Market

How 2025 disruptions slowed leasing—and why 2026 looks different.

07:26 – The Consumer Comes Back Into Focus

Rising discretionary income and its impact on physical retail demand.

08:18 – Rent Growth vs. Landlord CapEx

How economics are shifting tenant and landlord cost burdens.

09:03 – The Early Innings of a Pricing Cycle

Why multiple forces are colliding to push rents higher.

10:55 – What’s Next for Retail Retold