Like it or not, next year's big dance in politics will ultimately be decided by the few, not the many.

Most MMP elections have been. Minnows hold the keys to the kingdom. 

Be it Winston with his best result ever or Te Pati Māori with an overhang - 2026 won’t be a 2020 landslide.

The difference this time is how extreme some of the smaller parties, more to the point, some of their MPs, have become - think Takuta on Indians and Simon Court on Palestine.

It’s not just rhetoric, but policy, too.

A separate Māori parliament, re-nationalising power companies, you name it, they'll go there.

The temptation for the behemoths, the broad churches, is to emulate what’s getting traction. To dip your toe in the pool of radical ideas. To be establishment without looking or sounding like it.

Trump and the MAGA movement are the best example of this.

In the UK, parties that have been around since Moses was a linebacker are being absolutely whipped in the polls by newer upstarts with one thing on their pledge cards: radical change.

The Conservatives have been around almost 200 years. Reform UK? Six.

The big issues differ - our cost-of-living malaise is their immigration. 

So the temptation must be to embrace a bit of that radical spirit. Labour might yet do that, we just don’t know what they’re cooking up.

My prediction? Establishment parties will do what established parties do.

Stick to the script, copy/paste their policies, hug the centre like a koala a tree, and hope their buddies grab enough from the fraying edges to get them across the line.

Their bet is that crises come and go but establishments don’t, even though the Brits and Americans show us they can and do.

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